Analysis

C19 deaths and admissions at mid-March levels. Johnson’s week’s delay then cost 25,000 needless deaths – he now has just a week to at least close schools

Johnson refused to even express regret for tens of thousands of deaths he could have avoided. Is he now prepared to sacrifice more before he acts?

The rocketing numbers of coronavirus deaths and admissions have reached levels seen in mid-March – just before the UK’s lockdown. Deaths have doubled compared to a week earlier – following the exponential path of the number of infections.

Hospital admissions for COVID-19 are following a similar trajectory:

A breakdown of the number of new cases by age group since the beginning of the pandemic shows acceleration across the board – and a frightening increase among children since schools re-opened, with one in five new infections now hitting under-19s and at a rate far above the average for the duration of the pandemic so far:

The situation is exacerbated further by the fact that the Tories have no intention so far of renewing a meaningful lockdown – and by the arrival of cold weather and the flu season that comes with it, both of which will reduce the number of available beds for treating coronavirus and other conditions.

While those who want to deny the seriousness of the situation might try to explain away the soaring numbers of positive coronavirus tests by linking them to increased testing (itself largely a fallacy), the death and admissions data show for certain that the UK is in a situation extremely close to the position just before Johnson finally declared a lockdown.

Yet Johnson’s feeble new measures this week leave schools fully open and millions still in dangerous workplaces.

Scientists have calculated that by delaying lockdown by just a week, Johnson condemned at least 25,000 people to deaths that could have been avoided. Johnson refused even to express regret, let alone apologise.

Johnson now has a week to close schools – a major driver of the infection rate and a danger to vulnerable family members as well as to children – before the situation spirals completely out of control and many more thousands die needlessly.

Is he prepared to sacrifice those lives rather than admit his rush to re-open schools was wrong and has driven the new wave of the pandemic? Testing is already being withheld from children to mask the extent of the crisis, so the signs are not hopeful.

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13 comments

  1. Or we listen to Professor Carl Heneghan Oxford University look to Sweden for long term solutions

    1. Only if your daft enough to ignore that there are vast differences between England and Sweden.

      1. SteveH, once you start to call people daft for having an opinion you’ve lost any credibility yourself.

    2. Tell you what Doug,

      Why don’t you look at the developed nations of Asia Pacific for solutions, for its awfully strange, all these supposed Western experts never seem to look at China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea or Taiwan.

      Just to put matters in perspective, most Asian nations have now decided the UK is a Covid-19 Basket Case, and it joins 10 other Basket Cases, but, the sad fact is this, of the 11 Basket Cases, 9 are emerging economies without much of a health service, whilst the USA and UK are among the richest nations in the World.

      So, in a population of more than 7 million, we had a handful of cases today, whilst the UK had 6,000 and growing.

      Don’t half make you proud to be British does that, although, a number of UK nationals in these nations are damned annoyed we can’t visit friends and relatives because our own nations of residency deem it far too dangerous for us to visit the UK. Indeed, since February I’ve had five trips cancelled by the airlines, and it looks like my annual Christmas visit with my family will also be cancelled.

      Still, you lot do Herd Immunity and Eugenics, whilst the sensible Asians do face masks, Lockdown and social distancing correctly, much of the time without government inference to do so.

    3. I must admit I prefer Heneghan’s very measured and reasoned analogy to that of Vallance and Whitty.

      1. Did you even bother to read Christopher’s post above,to which I can add ,my country of residence,Vietnam,who have probably the best stats so far on dealing with covid 19.You have the disgraceful figure you have ,because of the callousness and incompetence of the UK government.

  2. Christ! The Skwawkbox innumerate wet knickers get soggier by the day (Hospital admissions around what they were at the beginning of July)

    … and detachment from reality is getting into straight jacket territory.

    Still – Johnson/Starmer backers need a voice, I suppose.

    1. ‘Knit Tightly’ is clearly a bit of an idiot.
      If reported deaths didn’t all die on the day they were reported that is immaterial if they occured earlier and were left off those reported figures.
      Worldometer previously adjusted figures retrospectively, which could be seen as concealment – better to add them to current numbers with an explanation appended.

      “A positive test result for COVID-19 was not received but COVID-19 is mentioned on their death certificate.”
      Given that tests are unobtainable in many instances what else would you expect?
      Should the Tories be held to lower standards by ‘virtue’ of their incompetence?
      That would be to pile obscenity on obscenity.

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