Analysis Breaking

C19 hospital admissions in exponential growth, doubling in a week

The growth in hospital admissions for COVID-19 complications is following the exponential curve in the number of new infections, very nearly doubling in the space of a week from 100 on 8 September to 194 on the 15th:

The number of new confirmed cases continues to rise, today reaching 4,300. This growth of almost 1,000 in just 24hours has come in spite of the complete collapse and widespread withholding of testing – and in reality is probably many times higher. School outbreaks continue to proliferate at frightening speed, with hundreds of schools told to stay open in spite of infection.

The consequences of Boris Johnson’s haste to push children back to school and adults back into workplaces and hospitality venues are coming home to roost.

The deaths that the Tories know will follow the same, lagged trajectory will be on the head of Johnson, Hancock and every Establishment politician who has facilitated this, instead of actively opposing and pointing out the alternative measures and preparations, in education and elsewhere, that could have prevented it.

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  1. It’s increasingly like the week beginning 10 March when Johnson was turning his blind eye to what was about to happen – until Macron telephoned him on the 16th and we went into Lockdown too late. That’s the trouble when all power is in the hands of an incompetent partisan.

    1. In France you needed written authority to leave the house for an hour during Lockdown,
      Guess what
      Lockdown simply puts a lid on it
      You cannot hide from a virus and hope it goes away
      Macrons another liar and charlatan

      1. France has exploded into a second wave despite draconian lockdown measures earlier. It’s clearly true that ‘you can’t put a lid on it’ But I don’t think anybody is saying that? The argument is that lockdowns suppress the peak of an outbreak giving health services the chance to deal with it without being overwhelmed. What isn’t addressed by the Virus Deniers is what would have happened in say Italy in March-April if there hadn’t been a lockdown? Mass deaths? As soon as bars were closed the numbers began to decline. It was the same in the UK with pubs still open during that week; it was one of the demands of Macron that they be closed (or he’d cut all links with the UK which meant an economic collapse), Johnson got the message via an angry phone call around 10 am that Friday 16 March and around 4 pm closed pubs. It was a new version of ‘taking back control’ and so embarrassing it gets little attention from the ruling class and their media supporters. A full lockdown came on the Monday 23 March.

      2. Paul
        OK let’s go with NHS being brought to its knees, short answer is when its been run into the ground for 10 years, Yes there’s a problem of capacity and a short Lockdown would have been justified to get our ducks in a row
        Unfortunately for Killer Snowflakes like you, who are wiping out more folk than Covid19 could dream of, is the NHS capacity argument is a tiny part of this particular shit show
        Your turn now
        Care Homes and Airports
        What say you

  2. As the UK bit of the global second wave of covid19 now reaches its exponential growth phase (and from hereon in its going to be an ever faster roller coaster death ride into NHS resource overload with serious intensive care cases and more of that ‘chucking the infested old into care homes’ stuff’) , one wonders how long it will be before even the coronavirus denier trolls across the internet fall silent ? As it becomes ever-clearer to anyone with a functioning brain that covid19 ain’t no ordinary flu or summer cold ! As you say, Paul, this is real deja vu stuff re last March. For the Tory criminals and con men running our state, covid19 isn’t so much a health pandemic – as an opportunity, ie, a means to dole out unlimited state moolah to their Tory Party- funding Big Business cronies – for projects , like the privatised track & Trace farce that simply don’t work – and the biggest potential criminal heist in history to come – the intended circa £100billion in state funding , with no tendering, no research, to the ‘usual suspect’ Big Business cronies , for the completely scientifically unproven ‘Operation Moonshot’ mass rapid testing project !

    1. Where this £100 Billion Moonshot figure comes from God only knows, however, if this is how much they are suggesting it will cost to test all persons in the UK, I can only say massive fraud is involved, this based on the fact that it cost Hong Kong £52 million to test 1.7 million persons over a 18 day time line, that’s £30.60 expended for each person tested, now, if 50 million Brits got tested, the cost pans out at £1,53 Billion – let that sink in folks, all UK citizens can be tested at a cost below £2 Billion, not £100 billion, so, what’s the other £98 Billion for I wonder?

      1. The extraordinary £100b figure is all over the press, Christopher, based on leaked government documents. £100billion is only slightly less than our total annual NHS budget ! Project ‘moonshot’ (or ‘Moonshine’ ) would supposedly carry out 10 million tests PER DAY ! It is pure fantasy, with no supporting scientific basis. Quite impossible to carry out in reality. Given your Hong Kong figures, the UK should apparently sub-contract to Hong Kong – rather than their incompetent crony pals like Serco ! But then the whole aim of the Tory privatised testing route has been to pass state funds to their financial backers and cronies – rather than saving lives.
        See this BMA explanation :

    2. Bad Penny
      Vast majority of us show no symptoms or are not badly affected,
      Protections are now in place and risks are clearly known, so its our choice whether to get on with our lives or hide behind the couch

  3. Skwawk
    Your too late no one is taking any notice of this bollocks anymore, people will just ignore any further Lockdown measures
    What are you going to do then

    1. I am happy to see you have realised your true station in life Doug,you are indeed no one,no one to be taken seriously after your increasingly shrill and il-informed comments about the virus here.

    2. And what happens to the narrative when the expected number of deaths doesn’t materialize?

  4. Oh god! my knickers were drying out! Let me just get onto the Johnson/Hancock Scary Fairy line!

    I know mathematical illiterates don’t know what ‘exponential means – but their best tactic is not to broadcast such ignorance. It’s not a good look. An unexceptional rise from unexceptional numbers isn’t an ‘exponential’.

    For those who don’t fall for every twitch of the Tory finger and come running, leaving the brain in cold storage :

    1. This is the beginning of the infection season.

    2. Influenza is now more prominent than Covid – even as tested..

    3. Even given that, URTIs and, LRTIs in the community are nowhere near epidemic levels. See the CEBM monitoring :
    “The current community transmission of COVID is low and not at epidemic levels. ”

    4. PCR testing is so inaccurate – for well-known reasons – that the rate of illness from it continues to be unknown – as it was from the start of the Tory shit-show. The abused term ‘cases’ is pure flummery, detached from any concept of diagnosis. Schools are closing because kids have the usual sore throats and colds, and Johnson spouts rubbish by manufacturing another of his lies about children being a major vector. I’d rather believe p[roper research studies.

    5. The *actual data* for those who don’t struggle with such technological wonders as a bar chart is found here : Note the figures – even with all the inaccuracies – are way below 1% of the peak in April.

    6. The kicker : infections and hospitalisations would have to increase about 200 times to equal the worst 7 seasons of the last 25 years – those seasons that we barely noticed (all worse than last infection season)

    I’m amazed at this credulity – contradicted by all data – towards a narrative from a TORY government and its paid satraps like Fersuson – mainly concerned to hide its lying incompetence by doubling down on porky pies.

    Finally : Sweden.

    1. More utterly bogus non sequitur ‘stats’ from the paid coronavirus denier troll, ‘RH’. Unfortunately for him and his troll cronies the early stages of the long-predicted Second Wave is now firmly in play, and the expected timelag from fast-rising infections to fast-rising deaths on a large scale, of only a few weeks more, will clearly show what disgraceful paid denier scoundrels the likes of RH, Doug , timfrom, and co, are.

      And as for that constant gnomic stating of the word ‘Sweden’, as if this proves no lockdown is required – Utter fact-free piffle and nonsense from Doug as usual. For a serious, fact-based, analysis of the Swedish experience of coronavirus have a read of this August issue article from the reputable New Scientist Not the ‘proof’ that coronavirus can be ignored , and that Sweden has done well, that the coronavirus denier trolls want us to believe – in fact precisely the opposite . Sweden has NOT fared at all well with its more ‘hands-off’ approach ! !!

      1. You’re going to look like such a TWAT when the death rate doesn’t skyrocket.

        Yes, just a few weeks more will settle it!

      2. Whereas you, timfrom ( from the planet Blind Denial presumably) are ALREADY known by us all to be a delusional twat of the first water on a wide range of issues. The joint allocation of the Skwawkbox poster ‘Twat of the year award’, awaits ALL you denier trolls, timfrom – indeed in only a short time now – though over the next few months rather than mere weeks, for the full impact of the coming winter Second Wave death toll to be clear (and added to that the disastrous impact on the NHS capacity to cope of the normal winter flu outbreak).

        But of course the troll response, as per their disastrous constant, round-the-clock, advice to Labour to back Remain and Second Referendum in the 2019 Election , because bogus polling mysteriously showed that ‘even in solid Leave-voting Labour Heartland areas Labour voters mostly voted Remain’ according to these boneheads, will be to go quiet for a while, and then pop up with some new Right Wing troll message handed to them by their puppetmaster controllers – and no doubt a denial that the circa 100,000 who have died of coronavirus during the winter actually died of coronavirus .

      3. Article dated 13th August, your so last month, left behind, nobody’s child
        Sweden is now the exemplar nation

      4. Central Point is countries who had strict Lockdowns will face second waves, but even that’s bollocks, problem is Killer Snowflakes wouldn’t know shy

  5. If the death rate doesn’t increase roughly in line with the increase in cases – and we all hope it won’t – the reason(s) will require more than a cursory analysis.
    There’ll be a number of possibilities, including the AntiVaxx ‘theory’ that CV was never as serious a threat as claimed.
    I’m pretty confident that’ll be disproved and that the reason for the apparent anomaly will be improved drug treatments like hydrocortisone, ibuprofen, interferon beta and other more common compounds being tested for treatment, many of which are thought promising – as are convalescent plasma/antibodies.
    Time will tell but only the genuine among us will concede if we’re proved wrong – the trolls will just disappear or switch seamlessly to a new ‘theory’.

    1. David
      The WHO guidance sets a 5% positive test threshold for managing the virus,
      Here’s the challenge for Killer Snowflakes, how many tests do we have each day, how many are positive, do we have a problem
      Heres an original thought, everyone on government payroll is doing very well out of the so called pandemic, the gravy train is NOT slowing down anytime soon,
      Tory coffers are full but there’s always room for more

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