Politicians argued early April for schools to be first to open. Now Imperial College finds school closures and lockdowns saved more than 3 million lives in Europe

Yet UK is leaving lockdown with deaths and cases higher than when it went in

A new report published by Imperial College in the scientific journal Nature has calculated the course that the coronavirus pandemic would have taken if 11 countries across Europe – including, belatedly, the UK – had not initiated school closures and lock-downs.

It has found that the death toll across those 11 countries would have been 3,100,000 higher if they had not locked down.

The study also found that lock-downs had reduced the ‘R’-rate – the speed at which the virus was able to infect new victims – was reduced by as much as 80% because of the lock-down measures imposed by different countries.

The Tories were slow to close schools and slow to lock down in other ways – even after it finally ‘realised’ that Boris Johnson’s ‘herd immunity’ plan would kill hundreds of thousands of people, Johnson still dragged his feet for another week before announcing the UK’s lax version of lock-down and took until today to even make a token attempt at quarantining passengers even from the world’s then-worst hotspots.

Yet the Tories were calling less than two weeks after lock-down began for schools to re-open quickly – as were Keir Starmer and other centrists – and have pushed through the re-opening even though studies in France and Germany have found schools are hotbeds of infection.

Even though Johnson’s own scientific advisers have warned him that doing so will spark a new wave of infections.

Johnson is taking the UK further and further out of lock-down, even though infection and death rates have stayed stubbornly higher than they were when it went in.

And long before all this, the Tories quietly more than tripled temporary mortuary capacity in anticipation of the massive second wave they fully expect their actions to cause.

Lock-down saved many lives – even though many thousands were needlessly lost because of Johnson’s delays. Johnson knows his haste to lift it will cost many more.

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  1. Saving lives is not the priority pf this government. They have already discovered, presumably to their great joy and disbelief, that they can get away with directly causing the deaths of tens of thousands of people without being slated either by the media or by opposition parties. So why on earth would the change tack? We are a weird joke country where Dominic Cummings, the PMs ASSISTANT holds court in the ‘Rose Garden’ to excuse his flagrantly irresponsible behaviour, and where the PM himself is in hiding most of the time (and when he’s not, severely restricts access by media personnel and curtails their questioning) because he’s such an incompetent vacuous dickhead. They’ve even had to give up saying over and over again that they are being ‘led by the science,’ as most scientists have now said they are making a complete balls of things. No they are NOT (and never were) being ‘led by the science.’ But we, this country, the sodding joke country, the UK, we are being led by donkeys. And to finish where I began, saving lives is not their priority.

    1. Yes to all that Noel, but comparisons with other countries will become clearer over time – the incompetence, recklessness and sheer evil of the Tories will come back to bite them in the arse I think when the truth of all this is known.

      1. I hope you’re right David, but am beginning to think that this government really can get away with anything, with a little help from its friends in the media, an supported by the gullible and uninformed (not to say culpably ignorant) ‘British people’ who put them there in the first place, and have a deeply subservient love of all things Tory. Thank god I live in Scotland where greater sanity prevails!

      2. So being duped by the Establishment/Tories and their propaganda machine is to be gullible and uninformed and – in brackets for some odd reason – culpably ignorant, is it. I mean HOW arrogant and conceited is THAT! And I suppose that many people in Scotland weren’t ‘influenced’ by the MSM in the weeks and months prior to the Independence Referendum!

        And the ‘British people’ did NOT put them in power, a PERCENTAGE of the British people put them in power, most of whom ALWAYS vote Tory, not because they are duped and deceived by the MSM, but because the Tories look after their own. And when it was quite evident to the Establishment that the Tories – after eighteen years in power – had run their course, they were ‘replaced’ by New Labour.

        Someone posted a link to the following a few days ago, and it sums up consicely the effectiveness of propaganda and controlling what the majority think and believe about whatever:

    2. Apologies for pushing in, but the hearing is tomorrow……

      Craig Murray…….

      This hearing on 10 June is supposed to be public, but it will be virtual because of coronavirus. While it is a case management hearing, I shall nevertheless be grateful if you are able to “attend” virtually, as I am very keen indeed that I am not stitched up out of the public eye. Please send an email requesting access to the virtual hearing on 10 June to I am very keen as many people do this as possible.

      Please share far and wide

      1. Thanks for the link Allan – I don’t know the rights and wrongs of the Salmond prosecution but there did appear to be an orchestrated dirty tricks campaign against him – and I believe Craig Murray is being unfairly hounded, so – signed.

  2. 446 million people in the EU, so 3,100,000 +397,000 deaths to date equals 3,497,000.
    That would be a death rate of 0.784% of the whole EU, not just the 11 countries mentioned but not specified – verymuch higher than the 0.2% theorised by some here and in Switzerland.

    The reduced infections and deaths of late may be solely a result of lockdown – if so easing lockdown can be expected to lead to a sharp increase.
    If there actually is a seasonal effect with CV19 as with some other viruses we may be lucky and any increase might be small.
    It’ll be important to know – so far it’s all still just theory.

  3. Evidence from Italy is its dying a natural death as expected
    Very little new about Covid19 and we forget it was predicted 6 years ago, so let’s see what happens in 6 months
    How anyone can quote Imperial College is beyond me, no peer review no information on what drives there modelling no credibility whatsoever
    Burger King strikes again

    1. Doug 12:01am – I have to admit I found the 3,100,000 figure startling, but without knowledge of the data it’s based on, we can’t know.
      By “predicted 6 years ago” how specific a prediction do you mean?
      A new virus should permanently be ‘predicted’ and planned for because they evolve so rapidly and wet/live markets are a constant risk – that’s why the Tories cutting costs on the warehousing of emergency PPE etc. stocks was so unbelievably, so criminally stupid.
      Interestingly, the farmed mink in the Netherlands being infected by human handlers might with luck finally end the fur trade – but if other farmed animals, or even household pets, also turn out to be virus reservoirs by being susceptible to cross-infection to and from humans – who knows what that might lead to?

  4. How many initial carriers of CV19 did it take to start the epidemic here? How many carriers are now walking the streets? Are there likely to be more or less than there were initially? What will happen when contact restrictions are eased even further if there is no vaccine or efficient contact tracing by then?

    1. You mean you haven’t heard? Blojob says we’ll have a “world-beating” track and trace COVID system by June 1st.
      Only another 356 days to go… just try to stay alive until then, OK?

    2. As yo say – It is all about ‘likelihoods’ – or probability. And those initial scary estimates have been truly demolished.

      Life needs to get back to the normal that it actually is. instead og cowering behind masks and doors at the low chance of getting seriously affected by a mild virus.

  5. We don’t even have the faintest clue how many still-uninfected people there are to fuel a second wave – if there are none left it’s over.
    If only 10-20-30% have already been infected and there are twice as many currently infected as in early March, it could peak again.

  6. Time to address the new normal and what it means for the 1% of people at risk from the virus
    What they can do relatively safely and what precautions they and we can take to protect them
    Anything outside with masks and gloves is pretty safe, anything inside less so, hugging and kissing family and friends is a 1000/1 shot that they are infected
    Once infected it’s high risk but not 100% death sentence
    Nothing in this debate is a 100%
    At end of day individuals will have to make their own decisions based on the science, which will always give a range of outcomes

  7. It appears that the track record of Imperial in conjunction with Professor Ferguson’s estimates originally for the percentage on fatalities plus the vested interests the B&MGFs $400,000,000 donations are to be now washed down the memory plug hole with a estimate of another what if scenario. Let’s look at some factual evidence data not guesses.

    “ Over 95% of “COVID Deaths” recorded in England and Wales had potentially serious comorbidities, according to statistics released by NHS England.

    The latest figures make for pretty stark reading. Or, rather, they would make for stark reading…if they didn’t follow the exact same pattern already shown in other nations around the world.

    You can read the full report here. We’re going to focus on the comorbidity stats. Here are the number of deaths where Covid19 was listed as the only cause, split by age:

    Ages 0-19: 3
    Ages 20-39: 32
    Ages 40-59: 255
    Ages 60-79: 551
    Ages 80+: 477
    These are across all of England and Wales since the beginning of the “pandemic”.

    Simply put: Of the 27045 deaths with Covid19 in English hospitals (up to June 3rd), only 1318 had no pre-existing conditions. That’s less than 5%.”

    Breakdown by pre existing condition

    Pre existing condition
    Age group Yes No
    Unkown presence of pre-existing condition
    Total 25,727 1,318 0 27,045

    0 – 19 yrs 15 3 0 18
    20 – 39 158 32 0 190
    40 – 59 1,873 255 0 2,128
    60 – 79 9,778 551 0 10,329
    80+ 13,903 477 0 14,380
    Unknown age 0 0 0 0

    Perhaps, if reliable factual data rather than pie in the Sky what ifs can be produced, it would lessens the frenzied frantic hysterical fear being whipped up in order to throw millions and millions of people into a condition of penury! As if there isn’t enough of that already in the U.K.!!!

    1. Also – I’m still checking it out, but it does look as if the high elderly/vulnerable mortality this year may be partly the result of a notably low level of infection and deaths last year, such that there is this year a higher number of seriously vulnerable.

  8. Big deal. Who gives a fuck what Imperial College says anymore? Their credibility is shot. This article is worthless.

    1. Precisely, but the frenzied hysterical fear narrative has to be continually whipped up to keep the true believers focused!!!

      1. The gall of the ICL lot still banging their broken drum instead of going away and getting its modelling right is absolutely amazing.

        But, I guess their useful tools for the social suppression narrative that people have been forced to swallow.

  9. I’ve just noticed that SB is starting a new career promulgating science fiction and fantasy! :

    “Yet UK is leaving lockdown with deaths and cases higher than when it went in”

    Right – let’s start at the beginning :

    1+1=2 …. 2-1= 1 … and 1 is less than 2 …

  10. I’ve just noticed yet more unintentional humour in the headline :

    “Imperial College finds …”

    On the basis of the actual historical record, Imperial College couldn’t find its arse with both hands and a computer.

  11. As infection declines the number of tests ‘available’ should quite soon begin to outnumber the tests requested.
    A significant milestone but let’s hope the government doesn’t immediately jump to the conclusion it’s all over – because dismantling the new infrastructure will be very tempting, both to save money and frustrate any investigation into their competence or lack of it.

    For the future, apart from warehousing and maintaining stocks of PPE, ventilators etc. and ‘portable treatment centres’, I believe it would be a good idea to recruit an emergency response volunteer force – think lifeboats and territiorial army.

    With training payments and bounties like the territorials they could recieve training in testing, tracing, constructing the infrastructure etc. and everything else I’m unaware of that’s had to be started from scratch this time.
    As world population density increases such outbreaks seem likely to become more frequent and to spread more rapidly – speed of response is crucial to saving money as well as lives.

  12. If RH, Bubber et al are correct the emergency will be over in a week.
    Makes one wonder why they keep dogpiling instead of just sitting back and waiting for our humble apologies.

    1. It was over last week
      Your correct there is now just the small matter of clearing up the mess and misery caused by lockdown and preparing for next wave in 6 months

      1. Preparing how?
        The lying bitches will bluster that the UK is better prepared than any other country – that it’s a world leader in preparedness – but it’ll be bullshit, just like it was this time.
        Johnson doesn’t discriminate between truth and lie, only between getting caught and getting away scot free – or kicking it into the long grass with an ‘inquiry’ until the plebs have cooled down, which is the same thing.
        You surely must know that by now.
        Do you plan to cool down? I fucking don’t.

  13. If MC Bullshit et al looked at the offical statistics from the NHS, he might notice one or two facts. Eg only a minute amount of fatalities happen solely from the ” pandemic”, he might also be aware that the overwhelming majority of families occur with the over 60s, he might also be aware that 95% of the fatalities occur with 1 or more prior serious illness. Instead of being an ostrich !!

    1. I don’t believe in discriminating between victims who were already ill and those who were not.
      This was never a situation that dictated those least likely to survive be denied treatment – the nightingales weren’t even used.
      The older we get the more goes wrong – it’s normal. Anything can be declared a co-morbidity if massaging the numbers is the objective, and it was.
      I think even the last year of someone’s life is worth fighting for, but you prefer to write off the people recently described as “the greatest generation” as undeserving of even being counted, much less treated.
      Eat shit and die.

      1. You conviently forget that the public was given the impression by the organs of truth, reinforced by the flawed estimates from Ferguson plus Imperial, sanctified by the WHO with a constant wheeling out of ” experts” that this would csuse innumerable deaths.

        Realities are completely different. Only a tiny number of the actual deaths happened solely because of Covi-19..Of the total deaths 95% had one or more primary illnesses. The overwhelming majority were over the age of 60+, more than half of these were over the age of 80. Since the beginning of time old people have died long before Covid-19, yet to close down the economy, cause mass unemployment on the scale approaching the 1929 WALL STREET CRASH. Is completely unwarranted, despite your emotive rhetoric. Did the generations that fought tyranny decide let’s roll over and let tyranny in through the back door on the the back of bullshit. Think on!!!

      2. “The older we get the more goes wrong”

        Precisely, and the big ‘going wrong’ is dying – which happens, and happens to older people. It’s not a case of ‘discrimination’. It’s just life.

        I am not just cheerfully sanguine about Covid-19, since I’m one of the Old Farts Brigade with other conditions who are *actually* vulnerable (instead of imagining that I am).

        But even given that, I wouldn’t wish this degree of social deprivation on the majority based on the still pretty good odds that I will survive.

        The other issue to note is that the mortality figures for the older population are higher this year because of the benign nature of the last. Simply – more have delayed falling off their perch until this year. Which is a bit of a bonus – a year’s extension for many.

  14. This is a left wing blog. The idea here is that we the people should own the economy, not have the economy own the people.
    By accepting the view that the extremely wealthy must be protected from loss whatever the suffering of the poor – which is what you do when you accept austerity and what you’re doing now by complaining about the ‘cost’ of CV – you play their game on their table by their rules.
    Austerity means rich landlords maintain their wealth by bankrupting poor tenants. The rich landlords may in turn be bankrupted by richer bankers, who in turn are pressed for ever greater dividends and profits by richer, greedier investors on pain of being voted off the board – all of these exploiters refuse to pay their fair share of tax or share in the cost of emergencies like CV.
    On the contrary, if they can see a way to use the virus exploit the rest of us for profit they will.
    All the means of production will still exist after CV, they’re just six months older – all that’s necessary is for debt and credit to be reset to the day before CV and the world could pick up again where it left off.
    Simplicity itself in a socialist command economy but in a capitalist economy there will be losers – we just have to decide who those losers shall be. I choose the 1%. Oh, and pension funds. Final salary pensions were always doomed to fail anyway – it’s no coincidence so many care homes are owned by shell companies owned by pension funds.
    Capitalism is just like any other pyramid scheme.
    Capitalist governments are just as crooked – rich donate to Tories who let them hide undeclared profits in tax shelters they control – government then borrows its (OUR) own money back from the tax cheats and pays them interest on the money.
    It’s time to call time.

  15. “This is a left wing blog”

    Up to a point, Lord Copper. But not in terms of Brexit or Covid-19. where it has backed essential Tory policy whist just niggling round the edges.

    … which is the reason that some of us bang on about the way in which the social control experimental model currently in operation is about as ‘socialist’ as HSBC.

  16. A lethal experiment in social control that puts the experimenter and the experimenter’s family at risk as well as the subjects and their families? Not equal risk, granted, but would they risk Mummy and Daddy and dear old nanny?
    Despite the lesser risk to the rich it would be a completely unnecessary experiment given that they can swing elections with propaganda and even cook the vote itself by ‘owning’ the companies appointed to ‘manage’ the count.

    Logic suggests it’s just one more species-to-species jump in a wet market and yet another tiresome example of incompetence from the worst governments on the planet.
    No other explanation is needed and none other fits the KNOWN facts better.
    Unless you can point to a single instance of wild speculation by space cadets being proven correct?

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