Analysis

What an honest chart of the UK’s global coronavirus position would look like

UK deaths drastically understated – and even Financial Times’ ‘cautious’ estimate misses mark

The UK government continues to understate the deaths Boris Johnson’s mismanagement of the UK’s response to the coronavirus pandemic has either caused or allowed – many of them entirely avoidable. The official daily total, exposed weeks ago by the SKWAWKBOX as a sham, barely states half of the deaths even according to the ‘cautious’ analysis of the Financial Times.

ITV’s Piers Morgan on the latest FT figures

The Tories’ daily charts – now abandoned after the UK reached second-worst in the world even on the government’s figures – showed this country in a cluster of European nations, including France, Spain and Italy, with the US way above:

But even based on that cautious FT analysis, an honest chart – shown in a linear form so the distances between points are proportional and showing the FT’s honest-cautious UK death toll of around 61,000 – will look something like this:

A more honest representation of the UK government’s shame – but still understated

However, even that figure of over 61,000 is almost certainly far short of reality.

Leaks from UK hospitals have demonstrated that in-hospital deaths – for a long time the only figure the government released – were being under-reported. Hospital whistleblowers revealed that the under-reporting was by half.

And every nation that properly measures its deaths in care homes has found that around half of all COVID-19 deaths take place in care homes – and those nations do not follow the Department of Health’s deliberate policy of sending infected elderly patients back to die in care homes, where they infected fellow residents. If care home deaths in the UK are any different to those of European care homes, the UK figure will be higher.

With a real in-hospital figure double that of the official number and that doubled again by care home deaths, the real UK total is likely to be well over 70,000 and perhaps even rivalling the US’s shame – something like this:

None of this will particularly disturb Boris Johnson or the eugenicists among his advisers. The ‘herd immunity’ plan, from the beginning, accommodated the deaths of half a million UK people or more – and it never went away; only the language and charts were changed.

And, as SKWAWKBOX exclusively revealed yesterday, the government has been quietly tripling its emergency mortuary capacity – at the same time as relaxing the lockdown and driving working people back onto public transport and into workplaces.

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20 comments

  1. No surprise. The devil is in the obvious detail. The devil is in the Tory detail their Tory ideology. They adore their Tory ideology. They adore their nature. They adore their creations – avoidable horrific suffering, avoidable intense distress, avoidable loss, avoidable deaths.
    Three times the normal deaths. At least winter flu fatalities… in May. Excess deaths definitely due to Tory use of Covid-19 to fit their perverted sick aims.

    Furthermore until air pollution returns to previous levels, there may be as many as two to three thousand fewer deaths due to air quality. Also there may be few hundred fewer traffic fatalities and homicides. So even unexpected positives are being snuffed out by diseased Tory ideology.

    Tory execution of their ideology will also lead to several thousand ADDITIONAL fatalities due to urgent treatments having been postponed. Vague, confused messaging instructions which were deliberate or incompetent, means some people stayed away from attending hospitals, despite capacity being at its highest since the NHS was founded.

    All round, incompetence, callousness, confusion, shallow view of the lives of others, moral desert, deceit, spin, blaming the public, neglecting foresight, ripping apart any respect the UK had in the eyes of the world. All round we are enduring a toxic mix of negligence, unimaginable heartlessness and blind devotion to sulphurous Tory ideology.

  2. The original figure of 150k to 200k deaths came from government scientists, so it’s some kind of hubris that enables Boris and chums to keep hiding the clear facts. Do they think we’re stupid? Well, the Brexit fiasco proves that they were probably right to think so.

  3. There can be little doubt now that Johnson and Cummings are deliberately undermining any lockdown or isolation. It’s a two man Govt with the ultra light weights in Cabinet as ignorant as anybody else as to what is the real policy. Last Sunday’s statement from Johnson once again sowed doubt and confusion and gave a green light to those intent on breaking lockdown. The differences with the Devolved Countries was completely unnecessary, he only had to speak to then before dictating what the policy was. It’s the same with arrivals in the UK; they could/should have been subjected to testing and quarantine and they still aren’t and according to all the “we may do this/ we may not” pronouncements from Govt It will never happen. If they were serious they would have done it. When the second wave hits us the advice will be ‘shoulders to the wheel brave Brits, we’ll emerge healthier and quite a bit richer by Culling the economically inactive‘, a phrase used by Patel before the outbreak. Cummings et al see it as an opportunity but like the Nazis before the war culling the disabled it is unwise to say that is what they were doing.

  4. Hi Steve, Cuomo in NYC has recently quite rightly taken a shot at our Govt for ‘concealing’ the Kawasaki disease from the world.
    Any chance you could do some research, then an article on this. I think the news first broke in the Lancet, but don’t know if any British children have died. Or if our Govt issued a warning to GPs and hospitals to watch for it. I think two have died so far in NY.

    Thanks.

    1. There have been several, Tricia. Put ‘Kawasaki’ into the site search box and they’ll come up.

  5. If you look at the graphs, you will notice there is no differentiation between those who were over 60-69,,70-79 and 90. There is no differentiation between those who had underlying serious health issues, such as cancer, respiratory diseases, existing pulmonary conditions, dementia, Parkinson’s disease, and a whole multitude of diseases which people, especially old people suffer and die from.

    In addition, there is no differentiation between those who died solely from Corona virus.

    The Chief medical officer of the U.K. recently made a statement that : the overwhelming majority of people will not contract Corona, a minority will have symptoms they don’t even know they have, an even smaller minority will have recognisable symptoms, an even smaller minority will be hospitalised and, unfortunately, a very small number of people will die from it. Yet, observing these graphs it would be extremely difficult to ascertain this.

    1. Every time I post a bloody link, the post disappears…

      Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Most estimates have focused on numbers of deaths, with little direct quantification of years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some have speculated that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs.

      Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively).

      The authors behind this pre released study have added an addendum using more data and this has reduced the figure to about ten.

      This shows that on average, people are dying ten years sooner than they should.

      Doesn’t sound great, does it?

    2. This comment (by the Chief medical officer) is typical of the statements made by the government & its advisors which effectively says to people that this is not a serious problem. Having said that I’m surprised that the population has, in the main, followed the rules, & responded negatively to suggestions that the shutdown be relaxed.

      1. Off-Guardian recently wrote an article looking at the ambiguity of Bojos position regarding the Covid -19. It stated that they are saying it’s a very serious problem and the underlying word that dare not speak its name is fear which in essence what has been happening by the blitz Krieg of propaganda pumped out by the pedlars of it using dodgy Professors from dodgy institutions with bogus statistics run on discredited past performance to reinforce the narrative we are all doomed unless we rescind our personal rights to freedom of movement, freedom to earn a living and freedom to openly protest. In other words it’s a de facto police state.

        The model for control of the populous through propaganda renamed “ public relations “ ( it was more user ) friendly was pioneered by Edward Bernays ( nephew of Freud) who said “ the conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organised habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society” . He was used by the US government to manipulate the people to fight in WW1, he was employed by the corporations to promote their products into the consciousness of people. For example, he used very famous women to smoke at public venues when it was a social taboo for women using the catchphrase “ torches of freedom “ and other products by fronting them with men in white coats to give the impression that they have been approved by some scientific body.

        Naturally, the repetition of the message, suppression of alternative opinions and using various Orwellian phrases etc pushed into acceptance the story. Goebbels was a great admirer of Bernays and used many of his ideas plus techniques to push the ideology of the Nazis alien to the majority of the German public at the time.

        His techniques were used throughout history from Reds under the Bed to Thatchers enemy within and have since been refined witness Cambridge Analytica or the Amy’s bridgade 77 propaganda unit.

        Therefore, it’s no surprise that many have swallowed the line of fear, doom and death is lurking in every corner from Corona -19. Look at who the scientific authorities are promoting this latest “ pandemic “, who is funding them, who is pushing the message and who gains from it. Look at the terms, cliches, ditties to undermine anyone who questions the narrative many of which first came into a large public domain when dissenters were questioning the narrative that one man could be shot multiple times with a wide variety of different entry wounds and the man next to him could be shot sitting next to him in a 90 degree wound all by a lone gunman from a fixed point using a single hunting rifle by a single bullet. One explanation was that it was a bullet which could defy the laws of physics and do 180 degree turns. Anyone who questioned this narrative was termed a, wait for it “ conspiracy theorist “ the latest version is “ tinfoil hat” to dispute for example WMD or any other dubious official narrative such as we are all doomed by the Corona-19.

        So to answer your question I am not at all surprised that many, including many on the left, did react strongly to having the terms of people’s imprisonment relaxed. Fear and hysteria is the unconscious overruling rational and reason and as Bernays so expertly manipulated to control the wants, desires and fears of people.

      2. Brianbotou,
        good post.

        It prompted me to recall Pilger’s film ‘The war you don’t see’. I just re-watched the first 5 mins which is gold, backs up what you say and shows how PR is used to sell things, things that are very often bad for us, even deadly. and often things ‘we’ don’t want, society rejects or wouldn’t want if we knew the truth … war, cigarettes etc. etc. Fear seems to be used getting populations behind war and now we were told we were in a war on a virus, the military were to be brought in to help NHS etc. etc. Difficult to make war and a virus sexy or alluring I suppose, though bravery, patriotism, sacrifice are used to to give the impression wars are noble for want of a better word.
        It’s worth everyone taking the time to watch this film even if only the first few minutes and think.
        http://johnpilger.com/videos/the-war-you-dont-see

      3. I’ve watched quite a few old movies from the 40s and 50s (and probably the 30s) in the past few weeks since the lockdown began – both British and American – and it’s amazing how much smoking goes on in most of them. Yes, by both men AND women!

        PS Apart from Groucho’s cigar – which I don’t think is ever lit anyway – I don’t recall any smoking going on in Marx Brothers movies though.

  6. It is also interesting that the ‘falsification of statistics’ narrative that Skwawkbox naively accepts (citing Piers Morgan and the FT FFS!) emerges just at the point where more balanced scientific data and analysis is emerging to a wider public.

    Of course, anyone who has been actually keeping up would recognize that (a) the attribution of deaths to Covid-19 is totally unreliable – for reasons that are well known following the inexplicable revision of the registration requirements and (b) that, as a result, if anything, the figures are skewed in the *opposite* direction to that claimed – i.e. they are a simplified exaggeration. John Lee’s articles from the point of view of a pathologist are an excellent primer on the confusion.

    For a non-alarmist view of a normally *declining* epidemic spike , I would recommend the Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine :

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-15th-may/

      1. Ferguson was used by the Govt as an excuse to explain the U turn of 20 March; they claimed they were so scared by his Report they decided on lockdown. In reality Macron had demanded it that same morning or he’d close the border with the UK and cut the island off from Europe with disastrous economic results. Johnson was unable to admit he’d lost control to France and the EU so they U turned and ‘blamed’ Ferguson. Most media reported the 10am phone call that Friday morning quoting Presidential aides about the Ultimatum. Macron was frustrated Britain’s pubs and restaurants were still open despite the experience of Italy in failing to close bars. By 5pm that day pubs were ordered closed and on Sunday 23rd Lockdown was announced. Intriguingly by early afternoon the UK media had dropped the story – not so in France. Both the Presidential Palace and 10 Downing St said there had been a phone call. So far as I know nobody in the UK has mentioned this since!! It came just a few weeks after Johnson had proclaimed the UK had taken back control from Europe.

  7. Facts! You know, those things that can be verified. Problem is, despite BoJo’s initial claims that we have the best, most advanced laboratories in the world, in over 5 months we have tested nobody….well an insignificant number that makes no difference, so that equals nobody. We depend on Germany & America.

    Death certificates confuse pneumonia with respiratory failure & covid 19 which is a notifiable illness & death requires an official accompanying report from a doctor who may not have attended. Official cause of death inaccurate.

    ‘R’ numbers are not facts but estimates based on generalised sociological data at lease 3 weeks out of date.

    We know so very little about the Covid 19 virus, except that Porten Down says that it did not originate in any lab, it is not man made. We don’t know much because we don’t test……..it’s almost as though this gov’t wants it to spread. No?

    Testing will give us information about transmission. It will identify ‘hot spots’ where immediate action can be taken & much more. This information can be stored & used in any future pandemic, or just in case this virus never ‘goes away’.

  8. Maria, Pilger is one of the few journalists who is actually a journalist and not a stenographer for the propaganda message pumped out by the MSM. However, the MSM, the State Broadcaster have incrementally over decades marginalised any wriggle room for independent thought. Eg the World in Action investigative TV program was removed via not renewing the license of a TV channel because Thatcher objected to the documentary “ Death on the rock “ about the state sanctioned execution of three unarmed members of the I.R.A. The emasculated Panorama program because it didn’t always toe the line, the marginalisation of journalists such as Jonathan Cook or John Pilger.

    Wars are another form of politics and most people don’t realise that because wars are an opportunity to change society besides the military industrial complex plus the transnational banks to make more money and increase the debt burden on nations. Professor Antony C Sutton wrote a series of books outlining in great depth the plans, strategy and long term goals of the transnational financial conglomerates who either openly or overtly own governments, the military, the secret services, academia, education and most importantly the media.

    They know very well, unless they are going to use draconian dictatorial force of arms, they cannot control the majority without the consenting, unconsciously, to be shackled to servitude to them. Hence, why this latest, in a long line of contrived crisis to achieve those aims. Like sheep to the slaughter which is exactly how they view the majority of people.

    1. “Maria, Pilger is one of the few journalists who is actually a journalist and not a stenographer for the propaganda message pumped out by the MSM.”

      Indeed.

      On the subject of propaganda and use of psychology and what’s called behavioural sciences to nudge, manipulate public opinion andd emotions I just came across this example from SAGE’s behavioural science sub-unit. Link to source in tweet.

      https://twitter.com/InProportion2/status/1260938913851596800

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