Latest poll: SEVEN-point swing as Labour climbs two while Tories dive by five

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If you’ve noticed a lot of suddenly-bald ‘centrists’, Tories and media editors around, it just might have something to do with the latest poll from Number Cruncher Politics.

The ‘shock’ poll shows Labour leading the Tories after a seven-point swing*, with the Tories tumbling by five points while Labour climbed by two compared to the organisation’s previous poll:

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As the SKWAWKBOX noted earlier this week, months of relentless smears seem to have done little or nothing to dent Corbyn’s essential popularity with the voting public in spite of the efforts of just about the entire mainstream media, as well as those of combined Tories and Tory-lites.

Last weekend, eighteen thousand people at the biggest silent disco in history spontaneously burst into ‘Oh Jeremy Corbyn’ as the White Stripes’ Seven Nation Army started coming through their headphones – while the latest BMG Research poll gave Labour a similar lead and ICM also showed Labour leading.

Polls have tended to significantly under-estimate Labour’s popularity.

Worryingly for the Tories, Labour’s lead is huge among the three younger age-groups – 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44, while Corbyn’s party is only marginally behind in the 45-54 age-group – and Labour has shown it can motivate the younger demographic to vote:

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With smears failing to stick – and becoming ever more desperate – and Labour set to surge as soon as general election conditions force the state broadcaster into something resembling balanced coverage, those in the Establishment who have hair may well be tearing it out.

*In layman’s terms, most consider the swing to be the net of the movement between the two parties being compared. In technical terms, pollsters divide the net by two and would call a seven-point net change a 3.5% swing.

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  1. I don’t remember seeing any poll results at all on BBC news lately.
    Nothing remotely newsworthy about it – unless a Labour lead can be said to be antisemitic… we can’t say that, can we Laura? Or can we?

  2. The polls in Scotland aren’t doing so well. the SNP continue to control the show and labour and tory standing still. We need to get a grip on scotland!

  3. I am not sure we can get a grip on Scotland , they are clearly their own people now and quite rightly have their own views. The SNP are playing the field well and continuing to hold their political position well , and thanks to the fuckwhit Jim Murphy whose arrogance , typical of a Blitterite , cost Labour so so dearly .Mind you at least any dross he spouts will be utterly neutered, as he should be , by his complete catastrophe he created in Scotland .

    1. Don’t forget that Corbyn would not be leader without the unwitting help of Murphy who succeeded in getting the nomination level down to 15% from the 20-25% level that was originally proposed.

      The reason for this was to save a true Blairite candidate. In that regard he was probably successful as Liz Kendall only got 5 more nominations than Corbyn.

      It is also worth bearing in mind that the catastrophe in Scotland also helped Corbyn to get nominated as many Labour MPs there were truly awful.

  4. Good news and Labour’s leaflets for the GE should expose the Tories.
    In the last 8 years of their political decision to introduce austerity the first thing the Tories/Lib Dems did was to introduce tax cus for: big business corporations, millionaires, private landlords with multiple properties, £145m tax cuts for hedge funds (who gave the Tories £50m) so don’t worry about this austerity stuff rich and powerful – it is only for working people.
    The Tories and Lib Dems then changed the rules for local government funding so instead of being based on population size and NEED they are now based on population size only and the result has been billions of pounds of cuts for overwhelmingly Northern Labour Councils.
    The architects of austerity for working people were the Tories/Lib Dems then the Tories and now the the Tories/DUP.
    Time to ditch austerity and the Tories and to build a society FOR THE MANY NOT THE FEW!

  5. It’s not right to say the smear campaign is having no effect. If it wasn’t for the smears, Labour would be 10 or 20 points ahead.

    1. I think 10 is possibly about right. For 20 you’d need Lab 50, Con 30, which is unlikely given that apart from 1996 and 1997 when even the Tory press reported on Blair very kindly and lacerated the Major government, the Tory press always attacks Labour, only not this viciously and consistently. Without the outrageous lies told about Jeremy, including the recent gigantic one about Jeremy in Tunis (supposedly) laying a wreath or being present at a ceremony to honour the Black September assassins, it would be hard for Lab to be in a better than 43-35 position at this stage in the cycle. What might occur during an election campaign with the magnificent campaigning we saw in 2017 and the effing BBC and other TV broadcasters having to give Jeremy and others on the front bench the oxygen of untainted publicity and the chance to get our messages across, an election result might easily be better than 43-35. A landslide would probably happen. If there is a repeat of 2017 in terms of Labour advancing during the campaign, then a majority of about 40 is not at all implausible.

      If we can get mandatory re-selection rolling soon, then complete bad ‘uns like Austin, Streeting, Field, and hopefully Umunna, Kinnock and Phillip will get kicked off the freedom train and we can finally do something to get this country out of its currently absolutely corrupt, wretched position. I’m over 60 and have finally realised that Britain is nothing like a democracy. It’s time to put that right.

    2. You are quite right of course. People who dismiss the effect of the MSM can of course feel safe bit it leads to delusions and ultimately disillusion and apathy. So more effort to campaign against the bias and steady chipping away at untruths. I for one would like to know where Skwawkbox’s own ‘correct’ Tunis wreath stories have gone. .I am not sure that computer attacks answers the New Statesman questions today? Rosie Brocklehurst

      1. The articles remain online as ever, The NS article is shoddy nonsense

  6. Can anyone spare a thought for poor old Dan Hodges and his colleagues? They’ve worked so hard bullshitting the public they must be at the suicidal stage by now. Next, let’s get mandatory reselection in place and clear-out the enemy within!

    1. “Can anyone spare a thought for poor old Dan Hodges and his colleagues? They’ve worked so hard bullshitting the public they must be at the suicidal stage by now.”

      I’m beginning to wonder whether these people have attended similar cognitive re framing courses? Perhaps under the terms motivational or leadership courses or similar? I think these people really believe what they spout.
      How could parents such as Jackson and Benn produce children with polar opposite political views, the way they view events and lack of independent critical thinking? I cannot get my head round the cognitive dissonance and robotic repetition of debunked narratives on display. It’s like a script from a dystopian science fiction movie is stuck in a groove on the disk.

      1. And Kinnock.
        It’s great we’re attracting younger voters but we must start getting more of the older generation, 50+.

  7. 2+5=7. This is true but you then have to divide by 2 and that gives a swing of 3.5%.

  8. Despite all the venom, even the Times of Israel has to admit Corbyn’s rise in the polls..@Corbyn looks set to retain his job and potentially become Britain’s next prime minister.’ https://www.timesofisrael.com/shrugging-off-critics-trump-style-corbyn-withstands-outrage-rises-in-polls/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=9e0dffdde0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_16_05_29&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-9e0dffdde0-54507025

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