Analysis Breaking

Latest death toll of 367 shows lethality of COVID is close to 1st wave peak

Peak of pandemic first wave saw estimated 100,000 new cases per day and 1,000+ deaths

The latest 24-hour UK COVID-19 death toll of 367 confirms the SKWAWKBOX analysis earlier this week that the UK’s real mortality rate was 300+ per day.

It also suggests that the lethality of the virus in the second wave is not much changed from what the UK suffered at the height of the first wave of the pandemic.

While testing outside hospitals was negligible in the first wave, scientists estimate a peak of around 100,000 new infections per day – and at its worst the UK saw more than a thousand deaths per day.

Now, with more extensive – though still inadequate – testing, the government is reporting around 30,000 new cases, which means that a daily death toll of 367 represents a similar mortality per infection as in the first wave.

Some new infections will of course be missed, especially with tests still denied to many school children, but with the Tories’ weasel change to the counting of COVID deaths, the actual death toll is likely to be higher too.

The ‘deaths within 28 days of a positive test’ rule would, for example, have excluded author Michael Rosen, had he died after 6-weeks in a COVID coma instead of happily pulling through.

In spite of more knowledge of how best to treat those who suffer coronavirus complications the NHS is currently estimated to be able to save 1 in 5 of those who otherwise would have died of the virus.

The Tories’ shoddy 3-tier scam is inadequate (and inexcusable) in the face of the evidence, as even its own scientists acknowledge.

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31 comments

  1. Mondays figures always includes those not registered at the w/end so always higher. Still the rise is predictable overall and as you say ignoring the school driven numbers England is asking for a disaster. At least in Wales at lower cases we have a 17 day lockdown including most schoolkids that should see numbers lowish up till Xmas. The question is will enough continue to follow the rules as frustration especially with certain people is on overload.

      1. Below Everton**, where they belong 😀

        **Like the beeb’s pro-tory bias, they’ve had an anti-Everton,bias for the past 20 years at least. Not only are they last on MotD all the time (I think – haven’t watched it since 2008 for that reason, but I’m told it was the case last season too) but as of yesterday on the sports report at 6:30pm ‘Everton are (only) joint top’. the reporter said.

        Now, had ‘the shite’ been top o’ t’league on goal difference, the beeb wouldn’t have said they were ‘joint top’.

    1. lundiel, seems u’ve been trying the Banard Castle eye test??? Sir Keith is incapable of any “left” action. And definitely did not indicate left. Keith can’t. Too much gell possibly. Fouled his plugs and everything else🌹🌹🌹

    2. That all-day-every-day serial covid 19 denier, lundiel, doing the classic ‘look there’s a squirrel !’ distraction , on an article spelling out just how very real, and deadly covid 19 is . No doubt more members of the Skwawkbox’s troll infection will now throw in non sequitur posts on sundry diversionery topics, from Sir Keith’s SUV accident with a cyclist, to that always popular diversion of the Left, ‘Zionism’ .

      I notice that the majority of the MSM are sticking to the current UK deaths total still being in the mid 40 thousands – whilst the ONS stats (detailed in The Guardian today) , give the ONS’s more accurate figure of over 60,000 , for all the dead people for whom covid19 was a definite contributory factor , re their actual death certificates.

      1. Blah, blah, bah Wolfie, the loony who predicted that there will be 100,000 more deaths by 21st Jan 2021 when there have been 45,000 in the last 9 months. Screaming, hysterical, Guardian reading Wolfie who hates it that current death rates are only slightly above a five year norm.

    3. lundiel, my bad. Only Tories eg Cumcums, test eyesight by driving 30+ hilly bendy miles to Barnard Castle with a child in the back. Very sound judgement, as Tories go.

      lundiel, it was possibly a Tory who “reported, he indicated left and turned right” because Keith has no “left”. He cannot indicate, turn, go nor do “left”. He openly said words to the effect on an extended BBC R4 profile interview which the poisonous propagandist corporation repeated when he was allowed to sink his parasitic fangs further into whats left of whats good. R.I.P.

      Sir Keith has zero understanding of anything worthwhile. He lacks vision and HATES justice, hence his persecution of Juliane Assange… ok, maybe not “hates justice”. Indifferent. That’s it! Indifferent to justice… hmmm… not right either.

      Ah‼️ This is it. To Sir Keith, justice… is inconvenient. Justice and truths are nuisances to Sir Keith. A bother to him because justice and truth are inconvenient for his masters AND for him.

      Never trust his reports. Never trust his reporting. NEVER trust Sir Keith.

      1. Agreed, but didn’t he once say words to the effect that he would be continuing Corbyn’s policies?

      2. He lied. Should be careful what one says BUT his reporting may be questioned even by his masters’ MSM.

  2. Despite all, Jeremy would NEVER have deliberately outsourced Testing & Tracing to SERCO with Nicholas Soames’ brother as a director. SERCO has ZERO expertise in epidemiology … nor much else other than being handed uncontested multi million £$€ contracts by willing / compliant governments.

    Jeremy would NEVER have deliberately gifted Tory BARONESS Dodo Harding, wife of a TORY MP, the running of ANYTHING to do with sensitive data. Harding FAILED at Talktalk. Harding FAILED at giving the go ahead to Cheltenham races just when Covid-19 was taking hold here after its approach from Spain, Italy and France. Harding is failing. She has failed again.

    I cannot imagine Jeremy would have willingly allowed thousands of vulnerable elderly people to be discharged from hospital to care homes with underpaid staff going from home to home acting as Covid-19 vectors.

    Can anyone imagine Jeremy deliberately seizing on a pandemic to enrich chums??? No. Me neither … unless of course Allan Howard was advising Jeremy that there was no alternative, or the MSM would tear into him or Twatson would be upset with him, or Iraq Blair would hate him even more…

    Maybe AH urged Jeremy “Do whatever THEY ask”… “Do EVERYTHING they ask”… Do everything McDonald and McCluskey and Barry Gardner asks… ignore Chris Williamson, Ken Livingstone, George Galloway, Stringer, the spirits of Clement Atlee and Tony Benn … INSTEAD, to the very end, appease appease appease those who openly say they ARE “working night and day” to undermine you. Recommend Twatson for a peerage so he could shaft the members at £300 plus per day, never mind the public platform so to do the shafting.

    And when Hodge calls you “An Effing AntiSemite” AH may have advised: say “I’m sorry you feel that way”. WHY❓❓❓ Because that method brings the glittering success that only Allan Howard sees. He is very sharp that AH. Sharper than everyone else Allan Howard – Shill Hunter Fanatic Extraordinaire… the sharpest tool in the box? No. The tool in any box – Roll over and wave your white flags – Allan Howard.

    1. Signpost, White Flag Man will now stalk you for the rest of your days, be very afraid 🙂

      1. If you are really lucky he might include you in the book he’s writing about ‘trolls’.😉

      2. Will be fun reading AH’s book about trolls… NOT😂 Won’t even get to the charity shops. Twill be more pulp… good for mushrooms i think… ah! no! they prefer coffee grounds.

      3. My goodness! Has anyone else heard of this? It is being reported that Tory MP husband of Tory Baroness Dodo Harding, wrote to someone he should serve. He, Penrose, wrote that parents “sending their children to school hungry” are “chaotic parents.” Not like Blo Job Johnson with children here there and everywhere with a variety of mothers… just like his dad. Blo Jobber Boris Johnson is not a “chaotic” parent. Only poor people are “chaotic”, “feckless” etc Feckless, chaotic Johnsons are Bullingdons to the manor born, decent upstanding society whores… just jolly good fun bulling dons and anything else…

        ANYWAY…ANOTHER Tory, council leader no less, a Mike Bird, gave “Barnard Castle Eye Test” quality Tory advice to PARENTS with HUNGRY children. He advises that they should shop at M&S.”

        Yes peeps! Poor people should just stop being “chaotic” and shop at M&S. Just when you think Tories and 2020 has passed peak ⚠️🆘✴️💢, both get more _ _ _ _ …fill in your own words.

  3. The crisis is naturaly turned in to a golden opportunity to loot the nation in the spirit of the looting that took place during the blitz but on a massive scale and, unlike then, most of it seems to be legal (orcwill be deemed to be).
    I received this link today for a crowd fund for legal action against the govt by a doctor.
    https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/jrcovid19/?utm_source=CrowdJustice&utm_campaign=d1e52ab82e-CYGREPOCT2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_7304756a43-d1e52ab82e-167144897

    1. The report was published last week. Few visible redactions but I only skimmed it. What I found most notable was that it was only a three day exercise to assess preparedness for a pandemic of massive consequence that didn’t even take the trouble to assess the sufficiency or condition of stored PPE stocks.
      It appeared to have had minimal ‘coal face’ medical involvement and apparently no government ‘learning’ – or the slightest attempt to improve preparedness – resulted from it.
      Hunt’s refusal to risk bad press for premeditating a future Grannycide seems to be the Telegraph’s only take on it..

      1. ps I did notice, even with a quick skim, some oddities of sentence construction that might indicate something was altered rather than blacked out.
        The kind of thing cutting and pasting can cause, the tendency being to review the changes with little more than a glance.

  4. Yes indeed Carlene Edwards, The Conservative (non-trilateral billionaire) Government is using the fear of coronavirus as a crisis to exploit. Not only is it awarding £billions to pharmaceutical and transnational corporations, it is – disgustingly – using the pandemic to promote mass indiscriminate surveillance (so beloved by Yvette Cooper and Theresa May as Home Secretaries). WSWS highlights that spymasters at GCHQ are effectively building a police state surveillance operation that will become a cornerstone of the new normal post covid.

    “Established in May, little is known about the JBC, except that it is modelled on the UK’s Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre and is overseen by spy chiefs. But it is this body that is setting the government’s pandemic response.

    “According to the British Medical Journal, the purpose of the JBC is to provide “independent, real time national and local analysis of infections” and to “build on the UK’s public health infrastructure and surveillance network… to understand the COVID-19 threat at any given time.” It will provide information to local public health teams, such as “levels of hospital bed occupancy, including critical care beds; the number of local people who have tested positive and registered with the track and trace service, and the number of their contacts who have been identified; and mortality data.”

    “Some £9 billion is being invested in the JBC. Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty told the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee on July 17 that “so much resource has rightly had to be put into the JBC … because … we really have not invested in health protection over the last several years.”

    “The decision to invest in this secretive body, rather than the National Health Service (NHS) which is struggling to function after years of austerity and privatisation, confirms that the official response to the COVID-19 pandemic has nothing to do with safeguarding public health and saving lives. It is part of the policy of herd immunity, while using the pandemic to restructure economic and social relations and strengthen the state apparatus…..”

    Well worth reading the entire article at WSWS

    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/10/20/jobi-o20.html

    1. JBC = Joint BIOSECURITY Centre. Pretending to be about health, it’s actually a neo-fascist NSA-type STASI operation in the making. BIOSECURITY. Cheap at £9,000,000,000 and hardly featuring on the Party’s atrocious new management’s radar. Maybe Sir Keir sees a revolving door opportunity there for himself or David Evans or maybe Yvette Cooper after he is sussed by the party membership and electorate.

  5. So we’re into total fabrication now, I see. Real Total Tosser territory from the poor man’s Guardian.

    Actuality : mortality is at the seasonal norm,, and nowhere near the April peak.

    1. That serial covid19 denier troll, RH, is now surely in real bonkers denier, ‘rubber room’, territory ! The facts on the ever-rising covid19 death toll are as Skwawkbox states, nutcase. According to the latest ONS figures, over 61,000 UK citizens have now died , directly, or as a major contributory factor, from covid19. Non sequitur nonsense about ‘seasonal norms’ are pure statistics-mangling distraction – from the harsh reality of this entirely new covid virus sweeping the world. Are you suggesting all the people identifed by the medical profession as dying from covid19 , have actually died from something else, and the entire covid19 death toll is a pure hoax perpetrated, for who knows what reason, by the entire global medical profession ? You need to up your medication, RH. As of course do other serial denier trolls like lundiel and timfrom, Doug, etc.

      1. I wonder… if they get sick and the doctors tell them it’s CV will they reject the diagnosis, refuse treatment, go home to nurse their “colds” and continue denying CV exists?
        My suspicion is they’ll jump the queue for treatment, still write their bullshit and just keep quiet about it.
        Haven’t heard from Bubba lately – I hope he’s OK?

    2. The thing is RH, nobody actually knows the real infection figure. Sure, more people are undertaking very unreliable tests, and the infection rate of tested people are, as Skwawkbox says, as bad/high as six months ago, but the BIG unknown is the real/actual infection figure, so don’t over-react to what you take to be an unhealthy campaign of misinformation.

      As you know, “cases” (infections) say little about the danger to people until we can confidently identify the real/actual IFR (infection fatality rate) and see how many peoples well-being and health are harmed by COVID19. You must admit, though, the number of hospitalisations atm IS worrying.

      1. If RH (or Rh) admits the least concern over anything his whole case falls flat on its arse.
        Once you’ve denied the orthodoxy on that scale there’s no compromise – there’s only abject, humiliating retraction or faking your own death and disappearing like ‘canoe man’.

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