Analysis

Latest figures suggest daily virus death approaching 300 – not the govt’s 178

Figures exclude deaths in care homes and other non-hospital settings – in spite of government policies keeping infected residents in homes

Latest government figures include only hospital deaths

The government has announced 1,250 UK coronavirus deaths – an average of 179 – in hospital settings over the past week – almost three times as many as the 474 shown for the week to 9 October, the most recent currently showing on the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) coronavirus dashboard.

Typically, a further third of deaths take place in care homes or at home. The latest official daily figure on the coronavirus dashboard is 189 – but non-hospital deaths make the real latest toll around 1,875, or 268 a day – or almost 100,000 deaths a year if the second wave is not stopped.

Instead, it is still growing.

The latest available Office for National Statistics (ONS) data lag behind DHSC figures and are sixteen days old, but they show at least 22% of deaths taking place in care homes – but without yet taking into account the ‘excess’ deaths of people likely to have been killed by the virus but not officially diagnosed, figures which are considered the most reliable indicator of the real situation.

The government’s official policy, first revealed by the SKWAWKBOX more than five months ago, is still to treat infected care home residents in those care homes, in spite of the danger to other residents. Seven weeks earlier, this site had exclusively revealed that patients known to be infected were being sent back to care homes, causing carnage and thousands of needless deaths.

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35 comments

  1. I would instinctively think that the public would not stand by and watch the elderly and vulnerable be murdered in care homes.But my experience has been that they are unaware or dont care and continue to support euthanasia.ITs not difficult to see how the murder of millions of jews by the germans came about amongst a nominaly decent nation in the not so distant past.ITs also a reminder of how government can use ordinary people has cannon fodder.WE should be ashamed that we have learned nothing from history and the deaths in my family in care homes means Zilch,just “natural wastage” to joe public.

    1. Skwawkbox’s dire UK death projection , of circa 100,000, is pretty much in the right ballpark – but almost certainly too low. Anyone REALLY wanting be seriously scared about the looming UK (and global) death toll by February 21st next year, can go to the authoritative US-based Institute for Health Metrics site, and enter any country for a projection based on current performance (and different possible outcomes under different possible national strategies, like universal mask-wearing): ttps://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

      The projection for the UK up to January 21st 2021 , on our current crap shambolic performance , is a possible 153,122 total deaths (from the start of the UK bit of the epidemic this year) ! For the USA it’s a ghastly 385,691 ! but better organised countries are projected to do much better, eg, Germany, 64,421, or France, 78,908, or Italy, 80,569. Also awful of course – but nothing like the UK projection (which would also probably involve the winter meltdown of our NHS under the strain)

      No doubt as the UK death toll accelerates towards this grim total early next year our resident nest of crazed conspiraloon covid19 deniers , from lundiel, to Jack T, to RH, onwards, will still be claiming its all a hoax ! And Boris Johnson will no doubt boast that it’s a ‘World Beating Total’ (that will certainly have dealt decisively with the UK population of ‘bed blocker’ old and sick, so that our NHS will be much more attractive to potential US Health conglomerate purchasers, without the low profit ‘drag’ of the chronically sick and old to cater for) .

      1. Wolfie’s projections, based on guesses about people spreading the disease at Christmas. More fear porn. Sweden has leveled the curve currently but the graph suddenly rises in December. We don’t need that kind of projection Wolfie, unless it also encompasses all the deaths from the socioeconomic outcome of governments response together with suicides, drug overdoses and alcoholic liver disease that is greater than normal. Otherwise it’s all just fear porn.

      2. “The projection for the UK up to January 21st 2021 , on our current crap shambolic performance , is a possible 153,122 total deaths (from the start of the UK bit of the epidemic this year) ! ”
        Behave yourself Wolfie. The death rate after 9 months is 45,000. In another 3 months it’s going to triple… you’re off your rocker dear.

      3. Eh Penney, stop your lies. When have I ever downplayed the seriousness of Covid?

    2. Joseph, some time ago I lived with a Jewish family in Dusseldorf who very well remembered kristalnacht. They told me that many Germans knew without doubt what was happening to Jews in Germany but simply turned a blind eye.

    3. Ah jok spot on this lot have culled the stock through benefits denial now they have a virus to help them further

  2. I wonder what the incoherent CV deniers claiming the government exaggerates deaths and cases will make of this.

    OT – I don’t read the Mirror but remember it as notionally left wing.
    The comments below this article say its readership is right wing.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-special-forces-storm-oil-22904489

    OT2 – Peter Frankopan, ‘Global historian’ on ‘Hard Talk’ theorises that Taiwan & Japan did so much better on CV than we did because they’d previously experienced SARS.
    The implication of that, if true, is that our government is completely incapable of learning from the experience of others.
    In my view even that, damning as it is, is over-generous.
    Tories just do as they’re told. Their donors crack the whip.

    1. Articles that mention the special forces attract a special kind of response BTL: a mix of fantasy bordering on fairy tales, unquestioning patriotism .and extreme jingoism. Given it had only attracted 16 sad comments when I read it, all is not lost.

      1. But you’d agree that gun porn, unthinking patriotism and jingoism are characteristic of the right and not the left – just like racism, antisemitism, disdain for the poor and unemployed, reverence for the rich and reckless endangerment of the planet I assume?

  3. Re SARS: the Ontario government commissioned an investigation into the way it dealt with SARS. The result was a report which, among other things, recommended the stockpiling of PPE. This was duly done. But when Covid arrived the PPE had been auctioned off and there was none to be found. Other measures, including building a reserve capacity into ICU facilities in anticipation of the next “inevitable” epidemic/pandemic, were also sacrificed in austerity campaigns designed to give tax breaks to the wealthy.
    Covid has taught us nothing which was not well understood by those paying attention. What it has demonstrated- and is demonstrated by each lost life- is that capitalism cares only about profits. It is a particularly nasty form of cannibalism in which the lives of the many are transformed into wealth for the few.

  4. Everybody knows pandemics can arrive at any time.
    The least-criminal explanation for the actions and inactions of parties in power in Ontario, the US, the UK and everywhere else that was caught with its trousers down, is that those politicians bet all of our lives on the hope of a pandemic not occurring during their terms of office.
    They assumed the odds favoured them getting away with it, but they did what they did for the sake of tax breaks for their wealthy donors.
    I’d shoot those fuckers until the barrels melted down given half a chance.

    1. Yes – and even he omits the real kicker – that mortality for 2019/20 is only the EIGHTH highest since 1993.

      We’ve lived through much worse infectious episodes than this – but never buggered the NHS so comprehensively or cause so many deaths from the political actions taken – or ruined society.

      Interesting how the ‘left’ in general has crumbled to a gibbering pile of Tory-backing debris at a crucial time for working people when they are under a massive assault from various establishment interests.

      1. R H…. ” the buggering “of the NHS is down to the Conservative and unionist party,ably assisted by right wing Labour party..The murder of the frail and vulnerable in care homes shows a distinct criminal tendency in a extremely sick government .The crisis in civil liberties is the Conservative and unionist party taking advantage of a real and deadly virus.Your comments seek to prop up the Conservative barbarism and justify their actions .Remember that all comments need to be thoughtful in not appearing to support government policy and euthanasia..

  5. 🔴 Covid-19 Contracts 🔴 Tory Bandit companies fleecing the public purse eg SERCO, Deloitte, G4S, Ranox etc have NO penalty clauses. NO PENALTY CLAUSE. BloJob by Cummings & Co apparently claim that “Penalty Clauses are not possible in English Law.”

    Just when you think Tories will defend their crimes with yet more ludicrous #*¥% , they do. When you expect Tories to sink even lower, they do. Just when you think Tories know no shame, brazenly exploit the country’s poorest, stuff their pockets with more £££billions at public expense… they do.

    As far as crawling further than any other creatures into the deepest depths of depravity, greed and heartlessness, Tories always exceed their previous depths. They vote to deny a hot meal from the poorest children, then cheer and celebrate in their private clubs.

  6. “Let me take you by the hand ………………in a world that doesn’t care”. The Ralph McTell song is an illustration of the continual ‘demonisation’ of the old in the inter-generational war being created by MSM. ‘A price worth paying’; bed blocking parasites, the post war baby boomers had it all & have always voted Tory to the last woman or man.Having done nothing to prevent the planet being destroyed, they own all the houses, always had full employment & enjoy state subsidised triple locked pensions. Get rid of them to protect the NHS & our pension funds as well as expanding the housing market. Without the old & vulnerable, Society can get back to normal. Cathy Newman is right,; the future belongs to the younger generations. Euthanasia is the preferred Gov’t option..

  7. Who qualifies to be part of the Covid-19 is very tightly controlled in that patients must have had a Covid test within 28 days of death.
    I am curious how many deaths are being missed out of the stats because their Covid-19 test was over 4 weeks old when they died. Given that it can take some weeks for patients to progress from diagnosis to death this could be quite a few.

    1. You should be just as curious to know how many deaths weren’t too a direct result of contacting Covid and how many were with Covid, along with what the other conditions were and their prognosis. If those facts aren’t recorded or released, there’s a reason.

      1. lundiel – Something we can agree on,
        Given the multitude of novel ways this disease manifests itself I would support that all non-trauma deaths should be tested for Covid-19. I would be quite happy to see swabs and blood samples being taken from the deceased to test for both infection and antibodies. The blood samples should then be stored to facilitate any future scientific investigations into this pandemic and/or long-Covid.
        We may well come to regret not collecting this wealth of medical evidence whilst we had the opportunity.

      2. SteveH, in circumstances like Covid there will be researchers collecting and collating as much information as possible whatever the stupid government neglects to do or tells the profession not to do.
        Individual doctors on the front line will be keeping their own records, if only for evidence in any future civil actions if nothing else.
        Doctors are more responsible people than politicians as a rule.

      3. David – You may well be right but my point is that this should be a standard procedure as part of a compulsory national program. Once the opportunity to collect these samples is lost it is lost for ever.

      4. Completely agree, preservation of samples and raw data should of course be sop, but this government will want as few reminders of its incompetence as possible.
        My point was that doctors will save their own data and whatever else they can get hold of because they’re the basis of research, and therefore of grant funding.
        What’s already in the public arena plus the stuff the Tories forget to shred will hopefully be enough to hang them anyway – because they’re thick.
        It’s only the system their great-grandfathers built that keeps them in power. They don’t even know how it works, the useless Nannies’ boys.
        It’s baffling that they’re not constantly surrounded by crowds pointing and jeering.

  8. You are Dominic Cummings, and I claim my free weekend in Barnard Castle!

    Have you heard about the latest (apart from the other reasons why the PCR results are nonsense) – the biochemist who got a positive PCR from swabbing an apple?

    This site increasingly reminds me of the queue for the ghost train ride – the credulous getting their rocks off at the thought of getting scared by cardboard cut-outs.

    For those interested in the facts, I would suggest the CEBM website for information :

    “Excess deaths remain low in England, with 112 observed in the most recent week reported – one percent higher than expected”

  9. There is no sense in doing anything other than trusting individual doctors treating the patients to sign their death certificates if you care about the truth.
    A government placing restrictions on what doctors must or must not enter as cause of death, or may not say publicly, is clearly lying to us.
    Unless one contends that every single doctor is in on what you believe to be a scam, errors either way will average out.

  10. 🔴 Has SIR Max Gel Tumescent Headroom Clampit Keith STARMER , EVER asked his Tory chums why NO PENALTY CLAUSES in the contracts FLOODING £billions into private pockets of FAILED SERCO, the debacle that is Deloitte, lamentable G4S, as well as ATOS the persecutor of the vulnerable, now renamed… new name – same Tory evil… not forgetting CARILLON…

    Has anyone ever read or heard Starmer question ANY of his Tory chums about this❓ OR, what’s the penalty for DEADLY Tory privatised failures❓ Why must we the many endure Tory catastrophes over and over❓Why has Starmer not uttered a single word on this❓ Why not a single question from Starmer❓Why must we the many pay the high price for Starmer’s bending over to pleasure the few❓Is Starmer so desperate for directorships at SERCO, Deloitte, Blackwater, Lockheed Martin, that he dares not even whisper about very irregular contracts… zero independent scrutiny, zero competition, zero independent auditing❓Begs the questions:

    Who is Starmer❓ What is he❓

    Answers on the largest spaces everywhere, please.

  11. OT, sorry – Simon the Coy on BBC News keeps calling the deaths of two US Supreme Court Judges and the retirement of another – which allowed Trump to choose three new right wing judges …
    “A TRUMP ACHIEVEMENT.”
    I’m assuming Trunt didn’t have two of them killed and the third blackmailed out of office, obviously – although I have no evidence proving conclusively that he didn’t.

  12. Breaking News

    Hundreds of thousands more people will plunge into Tier 3 this week as new areas join the harshest lockdown.

    Warrington will become the fourth area of England to join Tier 3 at midnight tonight, with pubs and bars forced to shut in the town of 210,000 people.

    And parts of Nottinghamshire (population 1.2million) will change to the highest alert level on Thursday after local leaders met the government this afternoon.

    Meanwhile Tier 3 talks are ongoing with West Yorkshire (2.3m), and were reopened with the North East (2.7m) but the status is unclear.

    The government finally confirmed Warrington will enter Tier 3 this afternoon, days after the news was confirmed by MPs and the council.

  13. “We don’t want to see children going hungry this Xmas”
    said Johnson.
    “We don’t want to” isn’t the same as “We won’t allow it to happen”
    or
    “We’d cut our own throats before letting a child go hungry this Xmas”
    If there’s anything I can do to help you achieve your goal, Boris, just let me know.

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