Real overall death rate more than double government figures, but even deaths in hospital have been hugely understated by government
The latest official data release by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows the government under-reporting even coronavirus deaths in hospital by almost half – and the total UK deaths by more than half.
The ONS figures for a week earlier, in the early days of the escalation of the crisis, showed that the government’s decision to omit deaths outside hospital from its figures was understating the death toll by 23.5%.
However, the SKWAWKBOX warned that this would rapidly increase as the policy of sending elderly coronavirus sufferers back to care homes would hide even more deaths – and cause more still, with the virus spreading rapidly among vulnerable care home residents.
A SKWAWKBOX exclusive last week that hospital staff were saying that the government was under-reporting deaths in hospital by half was attacked as fake news – but the new ONS data have confirmed those whistleblowers’ revelations:
The ONS numbers show that the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) figures understated the real death toll by more than 78% – and that the discrepancy on total deaths was even larger.
Even on the government’s lower figures, the UK’s mortality trajectory was significantly ahead of Spain and Italy – supposedly Europe’s worst-hit nations. But the data show that the UK was in a far worse position than either of those countries at the same stage in their outbreak.
The Tories continue to fail to provide adequate protective wear to front-line workers in the NHS and elsewhere. The government is also still allowing international travellers from known hotspots to enter the country with no checks and then freely travel onward on public transport.
The Tories are still only doing enough to create the impression of action, while leaving huge holes in the supposed campaign to reduce virus transmission.
Ironically, the Establishment media are today criticising China for under-reporting its coronavirus deaths – but the official figures show that the UK government is doing exactly that.
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The Govt manipulates the figures by way of omission and lies. They’d argue it’s necessary to avoid creating panic (?) but the real result is you can’t trust anything they say. Even so they can’t avoid posting more deaths in the UK than Italy, Spain and France put together probably by the end of April. Like the US our health system is dysfunctional or non existent.
Paul, I’ve just posted this on the police thread, it makes interesting, if long, reading.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
How many countries have been bombed, destroyed and occupied to ‘save the people’ based on Gov lies? Millions and millions dead, maimed and their lives destroyed based on Gov lies and manipulation of domestic public emotions to keep domestic push back low and engineer acceptance.
Nether can the govt – in the shape of D Raab at today’s press conference – avoid CMO Chris Whitty saying Germany is handling cv much better than the UK because Germany started TESTING people sooner. By now Germany is testing 500,000 people per day, utterly dwarfing this Govts figures which have yet to get to 25,000/day
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-
“The distinction between dying ‘with’ Covid-19 and dying ‘due to’ Covid-19 is not just splitting hairs.”
… and raw figures without analysis are what the Beeb reports. Need I say more?
Rubbish.
Still pushing this context free model and it’s erroneous assumptions.
You are David Icke in disguise and I claim my free face mask.
RH that is a fascinating article you lave linked. Hysteria rules. So the hysterical MSM and others (as on this website) have called for the economy to crash because of a paniced over reaction because we have a death rate from cv no higher than normal winter flu!
Crazy.
Precisely. Nate Silver is hardly a Tinternet nutter peddling duff info. – and his article is simply an objective examination of the problems in dealing with such data.
Asking for context is hardly a revolutionary request from anyone with a brain.
Beyond the fact that viral epidemics can lead to death and can be a very nasty experience, raw figures tell you absolutely nothing. Individual cases even less so,
If you think about it for even a split second, the general absence of such obvious information is what is amazing, although it can be found at :
http://inproportion2.talkigy.com
… which notes :
“As of 7th April, the total number of deaths so far this year is less than for the equivalent period, averaged from 2014 to 2019”
The Govt says very little about Care Homes yet it organises special squads to move the dead from Care Homes and private houses. Strangely they don’t know how many they shift! They daren’t publish anything because the cause is only too obvious – hospitals sending them back untreated and the lack of PPE for staff who often work at different homes and visit many at home. I wonder who is to blame for that – but please don’t ask, that’s just “looking to blame somebody” which is daft in a country like this where since time immemorial ‘Nobody is ever to blame’.
It’s hard to forget the film of Johnson visiting a hospital in the middle of the night and boasting how he’d shaken the hands of all the Covid 19 patients because he was no snowflake and didn’t really approve of lockdown because after all we were Brits and never afraid.
Unfortunately, he was just about the most physically unfit prime minister we’ve ever had since the 1950s.
Since Churchill? what a coincidence! Back then it was impolite to even mention it. I remember my parents arguing whether it was a good thing he’d had a stroke and was resigning as PM which came over the radio out of the blue. My mum thought the ‘old warmonger’ should have gone years before. My dad, as he often did, blamed my mum for voting Labour in 1945, something she was denying by the time they agreed 100% on the Miracle that was Mrs Thatcher.
Cameron was just on the BBC “praying for Johnson’s recovery and for his family.”
Anything he can do to help the country get through this, that’s Cameron.
And, were the worst to happen, it’s good to know there’s an experienced hand that could take the tiller in an emergency, right?
1950’s? I’d say we’d have to go back 200 years to the hyper-regressive Robert Jenkinson, 2nd Earl of Liverpool, to find a Tory Prime Minister as dangerous of Johnson. Back to the Peterloo Massacre and the radicalism that the Tories couldn’t help but cause.
Was he responsible for the Six Acts withdrawing habeas corpus etc and imposing censorship? A real old Tory!
That’s the one, Paul, the Six Acts were used to suppress the radicalism and social-ism which the embryonic working class exhibited and which resulted in the evolution of trades unions, class consciousness and the recognition of left versus right as the ultimate antagonism under capitalist economics.
I bet the ruling class of that time wish they could have imposed a covid lockdown. I suppose you just use whatever means are available when your single advantage is to conserve privilege and power and obliterate any challenges to them
Hate to say it, but even farcebook might be more useful in collecting more accurate figures.
Unless, of course, zuckerberg & co want some concession over personal data off the government in return for their complicity…
David Icke’s been doing some investigative research again.
He’s found out that coronavirus is caused by the 5G network and that “they” already have a vaccine but it’s got a microchip in it so they can control us remotely.
I say “discovered” – it was probably the sky fairy whispering in his ear again while he was asleep – I admit I haven’t actually checked his data though, so I can’t be 100% certain.
Are you busy with anything else today RH, or could you check it out?
David – There’s a difference between data and bollocks; between contrary evidence and sad delusion.
Recognising the difference is the only research tool needed 🙂
Unfortunately there are some really stupid people around who will believe anything they see on facebook.
Lives are being put at risk by conspiracy theories linking new 5G mobile phone masts to the coronavirus pandemic, Downing Street has warned.
The masts are vital for emergency services fighting the effects of the disease, No 10 said.
Over the weekend a number of mobile phone mast fires were being investigated as possible arson attacks amid claims circulating on social media that the masts are related to Covid-19.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/5g-coronavirus-phone-mast-attack-arson-conspiracy-theory-downing-street-a9450066.html
Yes. I’ve clocked that one.
It’s a general problem with Tinternet – separating the wheat from the chaff – evidence from babble.
Whilst Icke does have some weird ways of putting his message across, he isn’t too far from the truth.
Ignoring 5G, Mr.Bill Gates has made some interesting noises and actions recently. There is an article on zerohedge. I would post a link, but then you likely won’t see this post.
One has only to research the past occurrence of brain tumours in American mast engineers working in their cities in the 60’s and 70’s. They worked on microwave transmitters on top of tall buildings which, as anyone should be aware are the same group of frequencies at which 5g operate. Unlike 4g, 5g transmitters at this point have fewer power output limits imposed. This is what the hue and cry is about. I think the virus aspect is a later addition to discredit *all* discussion of the subject
The WatO was interesting today. We are getting a massive input of rehabilitation for Johnson as he becomes a martyr to the cause. If this was designed, you couldn’t do better PR.
Gone is all memory of Johnson the narcissist, serial liar, philanderer and encourager of punishment beatings.
Instead we have Johnson The Statesman.
Similarly The Raabit.
Again – look in vain for any contextualisation or critical voices.
Worse than WatO the Today programme this morning reported that Bunter had been “battling for the past few weeks to shield the country from the corona virus” So herd immunity and take it on the chin forgotten as the BBC rewrite history.
The ‘herd immunity’ blather by Johnson was the least of his sins, and I am prepared to believe it was him garbling what he’d been told rather than some devilish plot. Simply – this virus will only become a non-issue when herd immunity is developed; it’s how you achieve that which is the question.
But we have now reached a point in news broadcasting where the deference that Brenda gets is now extended to that pack of Spivs – the government.
one utter fucked up screwed up nation and the morons will swallow it all .
Stupid me went a looked at the twatters-sphere and getbetterboris# god the utter sickening hypocrisies of the bastards commenting , and now we’ve got clapforboris# well yes I hope he gets the biggest dose of clap ever .Is he dead yet ? Can I open me bottle of beer in celebration , just as I did when Thatcher died
Did my #sneezeonatory not catch on, then?
Bugger. 🙁
”and now we’ve got clapforboris#”
Will it surprise anyone to see them most likely try and hijack the next NHS one and take the liberty of imposing de piffle into it?
Nah, me neither. It’s more or less a given, isn’t it?
Anyone what complains will be: ‘Playing politics with the PM’s life’ and ‘Staining the memory of Jo Cox’ and other despicable desperate lowlife bullshit.
#fuckboris
Clap for Boris? I didn’t think he needed help to get chlamydia.
A salutory article as a vaccination against quoting ill-understood figures, Skwawkbox :
Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*
*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.”
– By Nate Silver
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/
Do stop pretending that the little round turds you pull out of the arsehole of the internet are the dog’s bollocks.
Testing is worthwhile only if it’s thorough enough and it’s not going to be with the Tories in charge.
Same deal with statistics – not enough will be known to say anything much with confidence for months.
You’re constantly trying to put your thumb on the scale to con the gullible that healthy business outweighs healthy people.
You can fuck off and so can your Tory paymasters.
You know as well as we do that the means of production will be there for the taking if populations or markets collapse.
Think we can’t run it without you?
We’re the ones who make it all work now, dummy.
Yes, it’s an opportunity for the Left not the New Right with its viciousness that’s really undiluted newly distilled fascism of eugenics and exterminations.
“You’re constantly trying to put your thumb on the scale to con the gullible that healthy business outweighs healthy people.You can fuck off and so can your Tory paymasters.”
Looks like it’s you whose lost your shit with that bout of delerium, David – not me.
“We’re the ones who make it all work now, dummy”
… you mean by helping the Tory schtik to run ? I know. That’s what I’m on about.
The article you linked to by Nate Silver is very interesting. Thank you. Not seen this type of stuff from him before, only polling analyses.
But what is undisputed is that the Tories are liars and will misquote facts for their own ends. Total and utter bastards everyone of them.
The groundwork was being done by the BBC in preparation for ‘the green shoots of recovery’ & an exit strategy after 3 weeks of ;lockdown’ Time for the economy to open its doors & flourish under the Political Party that champions business.The Herd Immunity doing its job?
‘Russia Today’ was cited on BBC Radio Four News headlines as publishing false & misleading information about our PM being seriously ill & taken to hospital. The BBC & No.10 Downing Street denied that Boris was ill, but later admitted he had been taken to an intensive care unit. So much for Fake News in the Post Truth Era of BBC & Tory Propaganda.. The BBC are teaching how to spot Fake News in schools…….real expertise. 1st question from Laura Kuenssberg please…………
open the doors in 3 weeks and watch the 2nd and 3rd wave of infections sore and the corresponding deaths as a result ,,,,,, madness , but then its Johnson the clown
Repeated waves of infection seem almost inevitable – hopefully we’ll learn from Wuhan’s experiment starting today.
I haven’t seen anything about ongoing testing there but given the intelligent Chinese response to date I think they’ll act fast at the first sign of a fresh outbreak.
The UK sadly has neither a disciplined population nor a competent leadership – the first day with no new cases there’ll be a sigh of relief, a ringing of bells, opened airports and street parties – followed by a throwing up of hands and roadblocks, armed squaddies and martial law.
He’s a fighter (just like chuck norris)
Was the shit came out of raab’s orifice
don’t come here lookin for solace
Cos we use the hashtag
#fuckboris
Seen a harder working slow loris
Soon he’ll be the spirit stokes doris
And he’ll be forever out of office
We’ll still use the hashtag
#fuckboris
© Me (in me living room, bored out me feckin tree.)
Speaks latin and thinks he’s like horace,
Hope he ends up like William Wallace
Look where his incompetence’s got us
No wonder the hashtag’s
#fuckboris
(Still bored)
Left the poor & disabled potless
With policies that are prepost’rous
Throw the bastard in a bath of white phosphorous
while using the hashtag
#fuckboris
(I’m off out for a walk.)
*Hahahaaaa!* Best prose I have seen in a long time! Well done that man!
This is really worrying stuff, for a lot of reasons. One thing in particular has been bugging me and it relates to the deaths which occur outside of hospital…
In order to take the strain off the nhs, the government seem to have adopted a policy where you get no medical help until you are on deaths door and those who aren’t seen as being in a vulnerable demographic have been told to stay at home when they really should have received medical care.
A coronavirus patient in an ICU currently has around a 50% chance of survival, so I wonder how many of the people who died outside of hospital would have survived if they had received the medical care that they needed.
Without more data it’s impossible to make any accurate assertions, but it appears that it is not just people in care homes who are dying outside of hospital (who would have a higher mortality rate than the young) and it stands to reason that this number of people will increase as we reach the peak as the NHS is overwhelmed.
Will all this increase the 2% mortality rate to a much higher percentage?
Without testing, this makes trying to find this out very difficult, but could this mean that the projected deaths from the herd immunity strategy could be much higher?