Breaking comment

Doncaster hospital sees ‘massive spike’ in infections and London primary forced to close. Is govt misleading UK?

Tories have reduced coronavirus alert level from 4 to 3 and claim continued downward infection trends in spite of rising number of outbreaks

As national news reports a ‘mystery’ third coronavirus outbreak in a meat production plant – Cleckheaton in Yorkshire now added to Anglesey and Wrexham – locals say that Doncaster hospital in South Yorkshire has seen a huge spike in COVID-19 admissions.

At the other end of the country, Epsom Primary School has been forced to close its doors after a new outbreak of the virus – and in between, infection rates are rising rapidly.

Yet the government tells the nation daily that the incidence of the virus is reducing and the Tories have just reduced the alert level from four to three – after weeks of implementing level two and level one lockdown changes anyway.

At the same time, US states that lifted lockdown early for economic reasons have seen rocketing rates of infection.

Is the Tory government misleading the people about the real state of the UK pandemic?

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    1. No mystery at all as to why you are promoting policies deliberately designed to preserve the profits of the capitalist class by sacrificing lives of the poor and vulnerable.
      The nonsense that there is no pandemic is designed to excuse the refusal of neo-liberal governments to sacrifice anything merely to save the lives of members of the ‘swinish multitude.’
      This virus has signaled the final abandonment, by the ruling class and its ideologists, of the old Christian ideas of community solidarity- themselves founded in the earliest human experiences- which have always been a drag on the cannibal appetites of the capitalists.

      1. Whereas you are promoting policies deliberately designed to preserve the profits of the capitalist class by sacrificing the jobs, social fabric and freedoms of the 99%.

      2. “promoting policies deliberately designed to preserve the profits of the capitalist class by sacrificing lives of the poor and vulnerable.”

        More utter bollocks – pseudo leftery at its worst that disappears up it’s own fundamental orifice and damages the people it pretends to champion.

        No-one with the necessary organ between the ears can honestly think that it’s the ‘profits of the capitalist class’ that are going to suffer from the corporately designed Lock-Up.

        … unless they’re living on Planet Zog.

    2. Do you have a problem reading, your graphs (which show covid cases rising) are useless at determining outbreaks.
      The outbreaks in meat processing plant Anglesey and Wrexham are factual. We would all like the pandemic to disappear, but slagging off SB for doing journalism (sadly lacking with MSM) is totally unhelpful.

    3. I’ve Signed Death Certificates During COVID-19. Here’s Why You Can’t Trust Any of the Statistics on the Number of Victims

      As an NHS doctor, I’ve seen people die and be listed as a victim of coronavirus without ever being tested for it. But unless we have accurate data, we won’t know which has killed more: the disease or the lockdown?

      I suppose most people would be somewhat surprised to know that the cause of death, as written on death certificates, is often little more than an educated guess. Most people die when they are old, often over eighty. There is very rarely going to be a post-mortem carried out, which means that, as a doctor, you have a think about the patient’s symptoms in the last two weeks of life or so. You go back over the notes to look for existing medical conditions.

      Previous stroke, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, angina, dementia and suchlike. Then you talk to the relatives and carers and try to find out what they saw. Did they struggle for breath, were they gradually going downhill, not eating or drinking?

      If I saw them in the last two weeks of life, what do I think was the most likely cause of death? There are, of course, other factors. Did they fall, did they break a leg and have an operation – in which case a post-mortem would more likely be carried out to find out if the operation was a cause.

      Mostly, however, out in the community, death certification is certainly not an exact science. Never was, never will be. It’s true that things are somewhat more accurate in hospitals, where there are more tests and scans, and suchlike.

      Then, along comes Covid-19, and many of the rules – such as they were – went straight out the window. At one point, it was even suggested that relatives could fill in death certificates, if no-one else was available. Though I am not sure this ever happened.

      What were we now supposed to do? If an elderly person died in a care home, or at home, did they die of Covid-19? Well, frankly, who knows? Especially if they didn’t have a test for Covid-19 – which for several weeks was not even allowed. Only patients entering hospital were deemed worthy of a test. No-one else.

      What advice was given? It varied throughout the country, and from coroner to coroner – and from day to day. Was every person in a care home now to be diagnosed as dying of the coronavirus ? Well, that was certainly the advice given in several parts of the UK.

      Where I work, things were left more open. I discussed things with colleagues and there was very little consensus. I put Covid-19 on a couple of certificates, and not on a couple of others. Based on how the person seemed to die.

      I do know that other doctors put down Covid-19 on anyone who died from early March onwards. I didn’t. What can be made of the statistics created from data like these? And does it matter?

      It matters greatly for two main reasons. First, if we vastly overestimate deaths from Covid-19, we will greatly underestimate the harm caused by the lockdown. This issue was looked at in a recent article published in the BMJ, The British Medical Journal. It stated:

      “Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and Wales can be explained by Covid-19.

      …David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that Covid-19 did not explain the high number of deaths taking place in the community.”

      “At a briefing hosted by the Science Media Centre on May 12 he explained that, over the past five weeks, care homes and other community settings had had to deal with a ‘staggering burden’ of 30,000 more deaths than would normally be expected, as patients were moved out of hospitals that were anticipating high demand for beds.

      Of those 30,000, only 10 000 have had Covid-19 specified on the death certificate. While Spiegelhalter acknowledged that some of these ‘excess deaths’ might be the result of underdiagnosis, ‘the huge number of unexplained extra deaths in homes and care homes is extraordinary. When we look back . . . this rise in non-covid extra deaths outside the hospital is something I hope will be given really severe attention.’ He added that many of these deaths would be among people ‘who may well have lived longer if they had managed to get to hospital.’”

      What Speigelhalter is saying here is that people may well be dying ‘because of’ Covid, or rather, because of the lockdown. Because they are not going to hospital to be treated for conditions other than Covid. We know that A&E attendances have fallen by over fifty percent since lockdown. Admissions with chest pain have dropped by over fifty percent. Did these people just die at home?

      From my own perspective, I have certainly found it extremely difficult to get elderly patients admitted to hospital. I recently managed with one old chap who was found to have sepsis, not Covid-19. Had he died in the care home; he would almost certainly have been diagnosed as “dying of Covid.”

      The bottom line here is that, if we do not diagnose deaths accurately, we will never know how many died of Covid-19, or ‘because of’ the lockdown. Those supporting lockdown, and advising governments, can point to how deadly Covid was, and say we were right to do what we did. When it may have been that lockdown itself was just as deadly. Directing care away from everything else, to deal with a single condition. Keeping sick, ill, vulnerable people away from hospitals.

      The other reason why having accurate statistics is vitally important is in planning for the future. We have to accurately know what happened this time, in order to plan for the next pandemic, which seems almost inevitable as the world grows more crowded. What are the benefits of lockdown, what are the harms? What should we do next time a deadly virus strikes?

      If Covid-19 killed 30,000, and lockdown killed the other 30,000, then the lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time. And should never happen again. The great fear is that this would be a message this government does not want to hear – so they will do everything possible not to hear it.

      It will be decreed that all the excess deaths we have seen this year were due to Covid-19. That escape route will be made far easier if no-one has any real idea who actually died of the coronavirus disease and who did not. Yes, the data on Covid-19 deaths really matters.

      Malcolm Kendrick, doctor and author who works as a GP in the National Health Service in England.

      1. The only issue I have with the above is the much abused term ‘excess deaths’. This animal is, in essence, simply the error of a predictive model, and the CEBM has examined the way in which it varies according to the accuracy of prediction. They demonstrate that the most accurate methodology (Harmonic Regression) almost halves the figure for ‘excess’ against the usual hyperbole of government/MSM.

        But that apart – the simple fact of the history of viruses demonstrates that there will be periodic spikes in mortality. It happens – due to viruses in particular. This year was *no exception* – it was one of those years at the higher end (actually 8th highest just in the past 27 years). Shit happens, and fannying about with lock-ups and useless masks makes no worthwhile difference : whereas a focus on what works might do (see Florida – no Lock-Up, but a focus on Care Homes).

        The course of the epidemic obeyed the natural description embodies in Farr’s Law, with Lock-Up policies having no effect on the curve. The evidence is there and is irrefutable, with the only contrary stuff coming from ghost stories and Ferguson’s modelling.

        There will be some continuing instances – but since this is a generally mild disease, it is absurd to be continuing with damaging and useless general measures now that the epidemic is over. The face-saving tactics of an incompetent and cowardly government should not be tolerated at the expense of workers’ livelihoods and health.

  1. I hope “meat production plant” isn’t significant – cross-species infection from and to farmed mink has been confirmed in the Netherlands.
    If animals farmed for meat are capable of being infected and their meat can then go on to infect us we’re fucked.

    Was showering so didn’t hear more than snippets of Johnson’s latest video epistle but it seemed the shift to local decision making might be to absolve the Tory ‘government’ of blame – obviously Tory councils will be better-funded.
    Local medical response to CV and test and trace is good if that’s what he meant, but not local decision making on quarantine and travel.
    I got the feeling he’s switching to offering ‘ambitions’ now rather than boasts, promises and assurances in the hope he can claim all his previous statements were also really ambitions, framed as intentions to increase the plebs’ determination and dedication to achieving his goals.
    So Johnson wasn’t to blame, the rest of us just didn’t play up! and play the game! like eton boys would have.
    Sorry, Boris, our fault, not yours.

  2. BORIS AND CUMMINGS are full ahead on Herd Immunuty killng at will who has the confidence to expose them.Boris is no longer able he is showing the long term efects on the virus

  3. Rational me:

    It’s proven that in the intense stress caused by a pandemic and with a bit much time to think, it is human to begin to see all sorts of conspiracies that aren’t there and turn a bit paranoid. It’s dangerous and we must trust the authorities.

    Also rational me:

    80% of the adverts this lot put out at the last GE were lies. Johnson is a serial liar, employing professional liars and packing his cabinet of incompetent sycophants who will not challenge any lie. It would not be passed them.

  4. WHO figs , last 2 weeks , UK run rate of new infections around 1000, deaths around 200, rest of EU like countries , Spain France Germany run rate of around 300 , deaths rate of around sub 100.
    Tories done such a good job ? and still doing a great job , keep up the killing you know you love it .

    1. 1. No-one knows the level of infection – the accuracy even of attributable deaths was buggered right at the start, which would have allowed some earlier clear idea of the lethality – which, over time and accumulation of data, has fallen into the same range as ‘flu.

      2.All cause mortality is now well within average levels.

      In summary : Stop Panicking!

      1. The crunch of the matter in terms of the NHS doctors first hand account of the reporting of deaths.

        The methodology for enabling a mathematical modeling of the fatalities is extremely important, however, the fact that, according to the evidence from this doctor and others in the NHS, upto a 1/3 or more have, to be blunt, falsified certificates of cause of death attributable to Covid-19 without even looking at the recent report from the NHS, up to the 2nd of June, that only 5% of total fatalities are caused solely by Covid-19. It’s a sham as we both and many others know.

        Hence the Tsunami of slinging smear and slander at anyone or organization which questions the narrative. Edward Bernays seminal book Propaganda gives a very good insight into why so many are absolutely convinced by the offical yarn.

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