Analysis comment

‘Do the maths’: MSM try to absolve Tories for coronavirus negligence – ‘lots would have died soon anyway’

UK’s ‘good result’ of 20,000 deaths would mean 128 times more deaths per head of population than China saw

‘Do the maths’

An attempt by a mainstream broadcaster to downplay the number of coronavirus deaths that the government claims would be a ‘good result’ has been condemned as ‘psycopathic’ – and as a whitewash of the fact that even the ‘good result’ would mean the UK allowing more than 128 times as many deaths per head of population as occurred in China.

And that’s only before the brakes are taken off again in a return of the government’s disgraced ‘herd immunity’ plan.

Don’t worry if your gran dies, she would have died soon anyway

A segment on Sky News yesterday told viewers to ‘do the maths’ to regard the government’s 20,000 figure as really only half as many – and all because some government source “hazarded a guess”.

It amounts to “Don’t worry too much if your gran dies – we say she would’ve died soon anyway”. Well, that’s alright then:

The whitewashing attempt was condemned as ‘psychopathic’ by Novara Media’s Aaron Bastani:

Another Twitter user observed, correctly, that the media’s attempts to whitewash for the Tories would be a feeding frenzy if the same things were happening under a Labour government – and pointed out that the government would be writing of more than a hundred times as many of its citizens as China lost before it gained control of its epidemic:

The media’s – and by no means just Sky’s – treatment of the Tories’ abysmal handling of the UK epidemic is appalling. The people of this country must not swallow it.

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    1. Just go away you pathetic apologist for the establishment.All you come here to do is criticise Skwawky and various left wing contributors below the line,with your insufferable cleverer than you persona.The OFFGuardian up to now has been juvinile in its output on the subject and is only just today beginning to offer some useful comment above the line,but precious little from the paranoiacs parade below the line.

      1. Son of Thatcher : ignorance really isn’t compulsory, let alone bliss..

        But if mindless ill-informed panic feeds your needs, so be it. I prefer information and a bit of analysis.

        Now, perhaps your infinite insight and wisdom would like to dissect the information in the links that I have posted about insufficient and misleading data.?

        … or do you just enjoy a bit of a paranoid panic in the pretence that such jumping to the Tory tune is ‘left wing’?

      2. There’s a difference between being informed and being misinformed.

        There’s a difference between panic and anger.

        And I’m close to exploding because of this govt’s wilful failure to take the necessary steps and precautions while misinforming, deliberately lying, and pointing people in a different direction every ten seconds like a fucked compass.

        People have and ARE dying because they are deliberately fucking up. It’s 10% incompetence and 90% calculated with these twats, all the while pretending they’re striving to achieve best practice.

        They’re alright at carrying boxes that weigh next to fuck-all in single fashion with their sleeves rolled up: ‘Look at me, I’m doing manual labour, aren’t I great?’.

        But they’re telling outright fucking lies on the television in the same interview…

        ‘We’re testing NHS staff ‘- NO, they’re NOT.

        The eu ventilators – a ‘Mistake’ LIKE FUCK IT WAS.

        ‘Herd immunity’

        ‘Science has changed’

        ‘I’ve shaken hands with thousands of people and intend to carry on doing so’

        And so on. Too many instances to be put down to sheer incompetence alone. Too many lies to earn the trust of the public.

        We ought to have a ‘Nuremburg trial’ for these bastards once this is over.

      3. Oh, and dicky, you wouldn’t listen to the concerns of people over starmer’s 2nd ref policy, and look what happened then.

        ‘Paranoid panic’? You’d like it to be wouldn’t ya? Just so you can appear as some sort of voice of reason; the archetypal ‘stiff upper lip’ or the epitome of Kipling’s ‘If’ – but let me assure you that I know of nobody who is ‘panicking’ or ‘paranoid’.

        Their minds are being fucked with by the clueless, conflicting messages coming from #10, most of which goes against convention. The confusion and lack of solid decision is what’s scaring people. It’s not ‘panicking’ them.

        You have nothing but contempt for people what disagree with you, so why should people listen to you now?

        You’re coming across as typical the type of beaut that sneers at those wearing facemasks and gloves if they’re not NHS frontline staff…

      4. You are absolutely right (did I say that?), Toffee about the difference between being informed and being misinformed.

        First – I am also totally in agreement about the government’s lack of preparation and assault on the NHS – as I’ve said.

        What I am justifiably bellyaching about is the misinformation that is floating around concerning the mortality rate of Covid-19 – which is unknown – and the best way of handling it.

        The links that I have posted about the problem of duff data and the strong possibility of an overestimate of the lethal nature of the virus – and the confusion with other agents are based on sound statistical principles – in essence quite basic information about the lack of proper data.

        This is the major source of misinformation – the lack of a reliable numerator or denominator, derived from a representative population sample, that is essential to estimating mortality rates.

        Those links better explain it than I can – but the crucial thing to take away is that the media hysteria that has been generated isn’t based on sound science.

        In answer to the sources – the two links that I have posted come from reputable academics, and they are actually not saying anything that is beyond basic statistical principles.

        So – anger at the government apart, which is relevant to this in terms of not doing enough testing, my major discontent is in the journalistic twaddle that is actually playing into the Tory panic-fest.

        The video link is really worth watching for anyone who is genuinely interested in the science – and its current limitations.

      5. WHAT IS your major malfunction, ffs?

        A 21 year old girl has just died of the bug….Except she HASN’T – Not according to the officials.

        That’s NOT ‘Journalistic twaddle’ , that is a FACT.

        So going on about not knowing the mortality rate renders your whole argument about (sites like this) spreading misinformation, is BOLLOCKS when you’re not even remotely critical of this government fiddling the figures.

        WHY you insist on having the messenger shot is beyond any normal person’s comprehension..

      6. Exactly john thatcher. Best ignore RH. Everyone else can see the mismatch of Tory Johnson words and actions. You don’t have to be an epidemiologist to know that their “herd immunity” SPIN is pure nonsense, as Covid-19 is a lethal and extraordinary form of the Covid virus. The Chinese knew it. The South Koreans know it. We ALL know it.🌹🌹🌹

      7. And, don’t be fooled. Johnson and his “expert” scientist ALSO know it. With a deadly unknown infection, as i posted what seems like a lifetime ago, the dead are no longer part of the herd. They are VERY dead. And likely contagious. That’s why they are sealed in a bag for burial or cremation and NOT to be reopened. Further we don’t know how many will die with herd immunity. Their “science” is NOT science. Their failure to act in a timely fashion is NOT guided by science, as Johnson deliberately repeats. No‼️ We must ALSO repeat clearly: Boris Johnson & Cummings ideology is a sinister gamble. Johnson and Cummings thought that only the sick, elderly, infirm, poor, homeless and other vulnerable people will die. Johnson, Cummings & Tories see “the many” as expendable. The Tory ideology is narrow-minded. The product of hundred of years of faulted inbred ethical degenerates. HOWEVER, Tories thought that THEY of the 1% would be immune.🌹🌹🌹

      8. Toffee “you wouldn’t listen to the concerns of people over starmer’s 2nd ref policy,”

        As usual, your outbursts can’t hide the nonsense you spout.

        The 2nd referendum wasn’t Starmer’s policy, it was a decision reached at the conference after extensive negotiations with members and supported by 80% of members in general, many of whom are on the left. Don’t continue to try and divide the left.

      9. OK.

        If you can’t respond to the actual issues raised, you obviously can’t understand them.

        If you get your rocks off with incontinent and hysterical shoutiness – so be it. But your postings have nothing to do with the actual nature of the situation.

        If you think that reciting individual tragic cases represent a summary of the situation and the probabilities – you haven’t got the faintest grasp of the scientific issues that describe the overall severity of this epidemic.

        If this site just repeats inaccurate nonsense reminiscent of the ‘antisemitism’ rubbish thrown at Corbyn (i.e with no factual basis) – it just becomes an irrelevant adjunct to the Guardian fear-trip.

        If you insult your own intelligence by ignoring the actual lack of satisfactory data – it’s your problem, not mine.

        If you’re not into rational solutions – then you’re just another problem and twisting in the Tory wind of febrile panic.

        Either read the alternative analyses and evaluate them in quantitive terms – or hang on the flawed statistcs that you’re spoon-fed.

        Your choice whether you go along with herd infection, or get a brain in gear.

        This epidemic could be worse than most …

        … or – quite possibly – less so

        It’s not known.

        I’ll post it again, and await intelligent comments :

        But if you can’t be arsed ….

      10. Cheers John. All of the lame – nay sick – Tory posturing is exemplified by Bojo’s isolation video today where he praises those retirees returning to the NHS, pharmacists and, without a blush or hint of irony, buries Thatcher’s infamous ‘there is no such thing as society’.

        Watch at Sky website & download from youtube, as this is historic.

    2. Perhaps if you didn’t have such a high-handed, over-bearing attitude towards those you deem to be your intellectual inferiors, then us common or garden plebs might be more amenable to what you have to say.

      But, no, it seems you can’t bring yourself to eat a bit of humble pie now and again. Instead, you just invite others’ scorn.

      You remind me a bit of my father. A very clever and able man, with an incisive mind but who found it really hard to accommodate anyone whose thought processes or technical abilities he considered didn’t match up to his own.

      Consequently we argued a lot, to the point where we hardly communicated at all towards the end of his life.

      So sad because he was a thoroughly decent man beneath that somewhat arrogant exterior.

      1. I’m sorry that simple truth-telling and intolerance of nonsense is seen as ‘overbearing’.

        My original postings on this issue were competely factual – and simply offered links to an alternative to the MSM narrative of panic, which is based on poor data.

        My assumptions are actually the *opposite* of what you imply – namely that anyone with perception can grasp this contrary evidence and are capable of arguing with it if there is a case to be made.

        It was the usual cluster of ranting emotional responses that were actually ‘overbearing’ – usually connected with no evidence of having looked at the issues. That is the mind-set of which I’m intolerant. I expect better.

        I have no humble pie to eat, except in terms of sometimes reacting strongly to the sort of attitudes that I’m accused of when not going along with received non-wisdom.

        To illustrate the point : I have seen nothing here yet that actually seriously argues with the two particular sources that I have highlighted. Unless I’m mistaken, every response has been a rehearsal of preconceptions. I wouldn’t have thought that an expectation of better – an ability to discuss – is ‘high handed’ or ‘arrogant’.

      2. On a personal note – I’m sorry that the communication with your Dad broke down. But it doesn’t reflect in the least the relationship I have with our children and their partners – which is one of fond disrespect and honesty, including much piss-taking when any of us gets on a high horse. But serious things are taken seriously – and one of those links I posted came from one of my ornery children – all of whom are intolerant of airy bullshit, but are interested in genuine discussion of issues.

  1. Figs from the Public Health England show that in UK total deaths from flu in 2017/18 from week 40 onwards was 155 .
    W.H.O figs as of yesterday 940 , since recording began in January .
    So doing the maths ( spelt with an s as I speak English ! )
    155/12 weeks =12.9 per week . 940/12 weeks = 78.3 per week.
    So there does seem to be quite a large difference between the normal death rate of flu and now CV19 variant .
    Thus I would say that there is rightly a serious reason to be very concerned about it and not to be dismissed lightly .

    Johnsons chosen policy of herd immunity and do nothing , coupled with the deliberate destruction of the NHS over the last 10 yrs and his Govts utter incompetence in getting even the simplest of testing and supply of Ventilators ( offered on a plate to him ) , is nothing short of manslaughter against the population of the UK

    1. The Sky News “Do the maths” is countered by the worthwhile BBC radio programme “More or Less” where real maths is used.

  2. All we can do is compare and contrast UK figures with those suffered by other countries.

    The numbers will speak for themselves: UK death rates will probably be much higher than those suffered elsewhere. An austerity-weakened NHS and social care provision, along with inadequate and late testing and containment will be the obvious culprits.

    Let us hope that very few people die as a result of COVID-19 and this Government’s atrocious handling of it, but we must speak truth to power when power is misusing its responsibility.

    1. “All we can do is compare and contrast UK figures with those suffered by other countries”

      … which will probably mislead you, because of the different – and almost universally unreliable – basis of the figures.

      Garbage In > Garbage Out principle.

      1. Which to some extent maybe true , until recently the figures used by the W.H.O were pretty accurate and were by enlarge following the trends of other preceding countries rates of infection.
        But since Johnsons Govt recent deceitfully transparent fiddling of the numbers of deaths to cover up the true impact ,then the UK figs may well be questionable .

        However , the trends will certainly show the impact of the Tories with their do nothing herd immunity policy and their destruction of our NHS, being unable despite fantastic heroic efforts by the wonderful staff , to support the oncoming tsunami of deaths .

      2. “Which to some extent maybe true”

        No – it’s absolutely true. The data is inadequate to make a firm judgment regarding the mortality rates connected to this virus – and the possible range includes a level less than that of seasonal ‘flu.

        The uncertainty is very large.

  3. Stick to national scandal and Tories visceral hatred of the NHS
    Make hay with the shitfest of lies
    Call for resignations
    Be ready for the economic pandemic
    Protect advances made with UC
    Say Never Again
    Clean up with Austerity was an idealogical choice
    And in keeping with current Snowflake hysteria celebrate the deaths of so many Tory voters
    Except there will be very few excess deaths due to CV

  4. ”An austerity-weakened NHS and social care provision, along with inadequate and late testing and containment will be the obvious culprits.”

    Indeed. Their risible and all-too-predictable excuse that ‘But we threw money at the NHS’ just won’t cut it when it’s time to hold them to account.

    …And to be held to account, they MUST.

    1. A good line of attack is
      How long will it take for you to replace the funding you cut from this service
      Did your supporters need the tax cuts you gave them

  5. According to Donald Trump “it’ll be all over by Easter”, in America that is. Lock-down; Social Isolation & Economic shut-down is not a price worth paying & the US economy must continue trading. Is this because only the good die young? It would appear that the BBC agree.

  6. Note well, there will be a rapid roundabout turn, now that Johnson, Hancock, the chief scientist, Diana’s husband Charles etc have been infected.

    If the scroungers recover, alas, the new approach will pause. The PLAGUE, will then be allowed to continue. That’s Tory ideology, BUT i suspect this virus will reoccur even more contagious and deadly in about six years. Then there will be no construction workers left to build luxury flats. No social care staff to care, no nurses to be applauded and no doctors to save the 1%.

    The NHS needs a cull of the overpaid nonclinical managers who have served only to rubber-stamp the decimation of the health service. We also need proper clinical resources including protective equipment. Also needed are politicians who recognise that it is good sense and priorities spend on critical care beds in excess of immediate need. Like heating, it cost less to maintain a base temperature than suddenly whacking up the thermostat. to proper funding, What Tory ideology spin as “saving” is false economy. Applause may be nice but still just noise, however moral boosting in the short run. What sustains wellbeing of the whole country, would be proper care of staff THROUGHOUT THE YEARS and NOW. Applause is all well and good, but noise does not save lives. Testing does. Proper protection does. Advanced planning does. Fewer jon clinical managers definitely will be a bonus when replaced with dedicated clinical staff. NOT AGENCY. Agency staff cost much more than dedicated staff. Common-sense… except if the agency owners donate directly or indirectly to the Tory party. A failure to test test test and trace from January and monitor international arrivals, especially at Heathrow, squandered the knowledge we had from China, South Korea and Italy. The results of Johnson’s inaction are needless deaths, bereavements and loss of our most valuable assets, PEOPLE. People right here. People right now. True Labour can counter Blue and red Tories by putting people right here and right now front and centre of ALL political thinking and activity. True Labour must make itself visible Every Single Hour to the people who need a radical change to the status-quo. It is for that the Labour Party was formed. To govern this country TODAY to transform lives NOW. It takes planning and graft and division of labour and CONSTANT self-assessment. Anything less, is detached virtuous indulgence. Every month our country remains governed by Tories blue and red is one more month of same old same old. Any vote, even 2nd preference for anyone other than RICHARD BURGON and RLB for Dep Leader & Leader is to perpetuate the undiluted toxins of Tory dom – Keir Starmer with Tony Blair trailing as a parasitic anal worm.

    Jo Bird also is an obvious choice for the NEC. Abstention is not virtuous. It is a dereliction of duty. It should bring no comfort but shame. Fail to vote❓❓❓ Then don’t complain. 🌹🌹🌹

    1. – Keir Starmer with Tony Blair trailing as a parasitic anal worm.

      CHRIST, that image in my mind now , God I need a effing drink ;-))

      Well said

      1. rob, i went for he first image that came to mind. WMD Blair always conjures up slime, smarminess, yuk, repellant, dripping in lies that led to the death of at least a million in Iraq, no apology, no recompense to the victims or our soldiers. They rely on charity while the DISGUSTING creature and its spawn benefit from multimillion property portfolios from the ill gotten gains from every cruel despot abroad.

        The creature’s money-making shameless shady operations of “charities” and spin rinses for the most WICKED people crushers abroad, dried up‼️ Yes despots realised the creature promised much but could not deliver. The creature is devoid of talent and vision. Indulged by the MSM, it makes noises at best, of what any wise person could have read on ages ago. At worse the Iraq invading liar Blair can produce nothing of value. The good things that happened while it clung to No10 were the ideas of others. They were in exchange for supporting Blair’s evils like Iraq and civil liberties encroachment and allowing the suspicious death of Dr David Kelly to go without proper investigation.

        Despots though saw straight through the empty vain charlatan. Despots could see that the WMD LIAR Blair was just GREEDY for money and DESPERATE to be worshiped. When the despotic money started drying up, Blair attempted to be chosen as grand empress of the European Super State. That failed … do far. Merkel was rightly not keen. Bless good common-sense Angela‼️‼️‼️

        Sarkozy was bendable, but now he is under criminal investigations, so not much use to Blair unless the creature could flog its image rinsing services. Sarkozy should learn from the despots. Blair offers nothing but theatrical smoke. No substance, only amateur dramatics. But back to point, when the post of Grand Glittering European Empress receded, the Blair creature began trying to reimpose its slime on the UK electorate. But it realised that its HEARTLESS SELF-SERVING LIES and IRAQ is its legacy, so having been defecated by George Bush, the filth filled slithering worm crawled DOWN into Kier Starmer.

        The resulting stench of the thus “occupied” Starmer, failed to alert those who should have purged the vector of Tony Blair – the lying faecal worm and all its resulting pustules and sulphurous distress to the most vulnerable.

        So if Keir Starmer is not stopped URGENTLY, then prepare for not just more stealth privatisation of the NHS, but also more arms sales to despotic regimes, like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uzbekistan… the list is too long, just think of any theatre of oppression, death & destruction and you the future clients of B side Tory Keir Starmer with bits of WMD Tony Blair trailing from every orifice. Expect more invasions, more PFIs, more outsourcing, and more of Richard Branson demanding more welfare to the tune of £7.5 BILLION‼️‼️‼️ SO …
        Asinine Handouts for the monied bloated 1%, but Austerity Hardship for the poor and vulnerable That’s the story of one parasitised by Tony Blair – Keir Starmer with bits of the multi stranded anal worm of WMD Tony Blair trailing from Starmer’s every orifice 🔴🔴🔴

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