Analysis

14 more UK coronavirus deaths – country likely to be in lockdown in a week as nominal mortality hits 2.5%

Fourteen more people in the UK have died as a result of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the last 24 hours, a 40% increase on yesterday’s death toll.

Based on the rate of increase seen in other countries, this means an approximate daily mortality trajectory over the coming week of:

• Monday 19
• Tuesday 27
• Wednesday 39
• Thursday 55
• Friday 76
• Saturday 107

The UK’s nominal mortality rate – deaths as a percentage of those confirmed infected – for coronavirus is climbing and currently 2.5%. On the current trend it could mirror Spain’s rate of around 4% by next weekend.

The country is probably a week away from being forced into a national lockdown – sooner if the government cares about saving UK lives.

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27 comments

  1. Can’t quote the little worm exactly but his replies to Marr’s questions were repetitive, vacuous and prevaricating.
    Even Hunt thinks he’s a wanker.
    Hancock that is.
    Marr: “Who’s going to look after these people?”
    Hancock: “Which people?”
    “We are doing and we will do the right thing at the right time based on the best evidence from the best scientists available”
    was about as specific as he got.
    Clueless twunt.

    1. Well perhaps when enough of peoples ” loved ones” are dead , there might just come a point where they rebel and deal with this little worm and the dictator in No 10

  2. Crap maths and faulty statistics don’t really help.

    The calculation of mortality rates isn’t simple division. And the calculation of survival rates is better psychology if you’re into useful information rather than tedious old axe-grinding.

    Look elsewhere for the picture, not to the Corporal.

    1. Here you go then Mr dismissive , some hard facts as of 14.3.20

      SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
      Globally
      142 539 confirmed (9769 new)
      5393 deaths (438 new)
      China
      81 021 confirmed (18 new)
      3194 deaths (14 new)
      Outside of China
      61 518 confirmed (9751 new)
      2199 deaths (424 new)
      134 countries/territories/
      areas (12 new)
      WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
      China
      Very High
      Regional Level
      Very High
      Global Level
      Very High

      AND ITS FROM THE W.H.O ..

      1. Steve Walker ( SB ) , maybe to help deal with doubting Thomases , put a link direct at the top of your site to the WHO !

      2. I wouldn’t bother providing numbers that back the case up rob.

        Dicky’s convinced hisself that more people voted against leaving the EU than voted for it.

        But anyone who says 17m is greater than 16m is just plain wrong…

        To dicky, people are gonna die anyway, so why have a (educated) prediction about how many?

        He predicted a labour victory despite being told they’d be humiliated if they allowed starmer to undemocratically steamroller through a 2nd referendum with a remain option.

        Well THAt went well didn’t it, dicky? Remind us just WHO got it wrong, then?

        But he got a labour mp voted in his constituency, so that qualifies him to spout his bollocks.

        Thats the sort of gobshite you’re dealing with.

      3. I *am* dismissive of bad information born of self-indulgence.

        The severity of this isn’t mitigated by disproportionate hysteria, with Sqwawkbox simply banging on and just feeding the vulnerable with paranoia.

        Boringly ranting on and on about the Tories might provide some emotional relief, but it has fuck all to do with dealing with the situation in any practical sense. Quite the contrary.

        I speak as one of the vulnerable cohort.

      4. “He predicted a labour victory”

        You’ve just proved your asinine and brainless capacity for fantasy, Toffer.

        I actually throttled back on my conviction regarding the degree by which Labour would lose because of its early strategic mistakes. But I – unlike some – never thought that the lost ground would be recovered by pandering to Farage & Co. and nursing the SunMail suckers.

        Meanwhile, the sole stategy of the Toffees seems to be to shout interminably and ineffectively at the Tories – instead of actually considering alternatives.

        There’s a certain perverse genius in mirroring Cummings’s asininity.

      5. RH , as I am also one of the vulnerable grp no spring chicken here mate but the issue you have to be mindful of is that by dismissing what to you maybe hysteria then others may view that as the “green light ” to continue with irresponsible behaviour . Remember not all citizens are as intelligent as you.
        For example the decades long campaign against smoking is now only just bearing fruit in smoking becoming a social taboo .
        The hypothesis of SB calculations are in essence based on facts of what has ALREADY happened on the continent , what would be hysterical and irresponsible would be to take some mythical number of say 10% deaths for all over 40s and make a case based on that .

        Boringly banging on about the Tories ,, well that is called HOLDING POLITICIANS TO ACCOUNT , the reminding to the public at large of what has been done and whom is doing it or in Johnsons lack of anything ! The collective memory is short and with the constant whitewashing or should I say brainwashing by the MSM of the facts , it is absolutely necessary to continue to point out time and time again the failures of this brutal lethal bunch of bastards in Govt .

      6. rob – My remarks are based on WHO statistics and also other more complete analyses that exemplify uncertainty in the calculation of mortality rates with imperfect data.

        There is quite a range of conclusions.

        This is not to minimize the seriousness of this infection – just to counter the distortion of the numbers driven by point-scoring motives (propaganda).

        Sorry – I’ve never rated religion over science.

      7. @RH as are my comments backed by ref to WHO also.
        This in itself should not be used to allow those who have the power to literally save lives to be let off the hook , that is not imo political point scoring .
        Nevertheless all the hot air that passes here will pale into insignificance when the full horror of what the coming months will reveal , and that is my opinion and not I hope a fact ( a forlorn one I suspect ) .

    2. Oh ffs dicky-head WHY do you persist? If you don’t lke what you’re reading why not fuck off and don’t come back, instead of trying to be a smartarsing know-it-all all the fucking time?

      G’wed, GTF; and take them other two bellends with ya.

      1. Indeed – your first good question.

        Might indeed be better to leave the irrelevance of Skwawkbox alone to indulge its collective penchant for pointless ranting as opposed to anything approaching informed rationality.

    3. RH, survival instead of mortality rates isn’t “better” psychology if the audience is inclined to avoid the inconvenience of acting responsibly, which attendance at sporting events suggests is the case.

      1. There is a balance to be struck – but the main problem at the moment is a mixture of hysteria and ignorance.

        Clearly – the main target at the moment should be to tackle the complacency about hand-washing and social contact. Everything else is subordinate to that, and the boring, whining monotone about how evil the Tories are (which, in the previous election context, had absolutely no impact) – and how awful everything is – are both largely beside the point.

  3. A couple of thoughts on the supply of ventilators – to produce quickly an existing design is essential so existing manufacturers (Phillips?) should be asked to allow manufacture of their units by any competent UK factory and recompense be guaranteed by the British government – I see no possibility of them not agreeing.
    I’m assuming ventilators probably use ‘hospital air’ – ie a central industrial compressor/dryer/filters for all wards, with control units/hoses/masks at individual beds – I assume that because even hydrovane compressors are noisy.
    If I’m correct it follows that only control & mask units with standard airline connections need to be built.
    That means installation of existing large industrial compressors, dryers, filters and piping at nominated (hotel?) locations should begin right away.
    Installing compressors now could reduce the lead time for the new ‘hospitals’ by half.

    1. There is a proposal to link ventilators to a number of patients at once.. but atm the ration is about 12k expected cases per ventilator.

  4. The real mortality rate is the number of deaths amongst people infected (on average) 3 weeks before. That cannot be known without testing which the govt has abandoned. It occurs to me that if someone dies with an underlying condition and C19 has not been demonstrated, cause of death will be attributed to the pre-existing condition. IIRC not revealing the numbers of dead civilians is a recent technique of choice to massage consent for the troops being deployed… is this what they intend in this pandemic?

    1. I think we need to check with corporal RH on what the establishment line at Tory HQ is.Hes pushing the “higher temps will cure all theory” at the moment for the Torys.Yes 👍 just wait for the summer and rising temps in our Green and pleasent Land?…?

    2. The mortality rate is a nonsense if taken as an average of deaths over an undefined population – which is why I object to Skwawkbox’s simplicities.

      Amongst other variables, it’s necessary to specify the age cohort, the defintion of the ‘relevant’ population, the socio-economic background and the prevalence of relevant pre-existing medical conditions – etc.

      Basic statistical issues before you get near a meaningful figure. You risk lookig pretty stupid if you ignore such basics. There are good articles that examine the notion in terms of such variables.

  5. The scientific community are calling the government out over their inaction.

    Scientists warn UK’s coronavirus response is inadequate
    https://www.ft.com/content/f3136d0a-663e-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

    Hundreds of scientists and other experts are challenging the UK government over what they say is its failure to take tough enough measures to contain the coronavirus epidemic, calling for stronger action on “social distancing” to keep people apart.
    An open letter signed by 240 scientists says: “By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared. We consider the social distancing measures taken as of today as insufficient, and we believe that additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as is already happening in other countries across the world.”
    The Covid-19 epidemic will affect millions of people in the next few weeks unless its growth is constrained, say the signatories, who include leading professors in fields from maths to medicine: “This will most probably put the NHS at serious risk of not being able to cope with the flow of patients needing intensive care.”
    Ten more people in the UK have died in the past 24 hours after testing positive for coronavirus, bringing the total number of deaths to 21. There are 1,140 confirmed cases of the disease. Other European countries have acted more swiftly than the UK to restrict travel and stop public gatherings.
    Another open letter, signed by more than 200 UK psychologists and social scientists, says government thinking is too influenced by the idea of “social fatigue” – the idea that, if implemented too early, measures limiting social contact will be undermined just when they are most needed. This is because people will be fed up with the restrictions and will revert to normal behaviour.
    The behavioural scientists say: “We are not convinced that enough is known about ‘behavioural fatigue’ or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances. Such evidence is necessary if we are to base a high-risk public health strategy on it.”
    The letter, signed by many leading figures in UK behavioural science, concludes: “If behavioural fatigue truly represents a key factor in the government’s decision to delay high-visibility interventions, we urge the government to share an adequate evidence base in support of that decision. If one is lacking, we urge the government to reconsider these decisions.”
    Separately the British Society for Immunology – the main professional body in the field – has “voiced significant questions” about the government’s coronavirus strategy. In a third open letter Professor Arne Akbar, the society’s president, says: “The UK’s public health strategy differs from many other countries, with an aim to build ‘herd immunity’ to protect the population. Within the immunology community, we have significant questions about this strategy.
    Prof Akbar urged the government to enhance social distancing measures and “release their modelling data to allow scrutiny from the scientific community to better predict the course of this outbreak. We have a small window of opportunity to protect our nation, to learn about this new emerging virus and to deal with this unprecedented threat to global health,” he concluded.
    Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn, the UK Labour leader, has called on Boris Johnson to introduce a raft of emergency measures to protect low-paid workers impacted by the outbreak.
    In a letter to Mr Johnson, Mr Corbyn said emergency legislation should include full sick pay and lost earnings protection “from day one for all”, rent deferrals and mortgage holidays, as well as income protection.

    1. SteveH, I have a very strong suspicion that the “social fatigue” or “behavioural fatigue” principle that the Tories are claiming justifies their genocidal laziness are only based on the reason cited in the run up to D-Day for not delaying the landings – the “You can’t keep men at a high state of readiness for another month” proposition. There were other, better reasons but that’s the one that’s remembered.
      By “based on” I only mean that it’ll have been the argument used by Cumminge to get his way.
      Because the landings were a success they became another revered ‘our finest hour’ – enough in tiny Tory minds for an unproven associated theory to be accepted as holy writ.
      Speaking of the war – and apropos of nothing – has anyone compared photos of Cumminge with photos of Oskar Dirlewanger?

  6. Lets face it, the UK is a joke and whoever elected this shower running our country deserve shooting, and that goes for the propagandists in the MSM and TRAITORS within the Labour Party ranks – yes, Progress, Labour First and the PLP scum I’m referring to you!

    Now, I’m close to ground zero in China and where I reside, HKSAR, we’ve been in lock-down since late January, all public educational facilities have been closed, restrictions and health checks at the airport and many other restrictions, although no way as stringent as those found on Mainland China.

    As it stands, just in the HKSAR with a population just over 7 million we’ve had under 150 Covid-19 cases thus far and 4 deaths, compare this with my homeland in Wales, which has nearly 100 cases thus far, despite a lower population, lower population density and two months notice of events transpiring in China and elsewhere in Asia – its farcical, my nippers been off school since late January and is not expected to return to school until 20 April at the earliest – we’ve had panic buying, so the UK was aware of this issue too, alas, fuck all has been done, nothing, nada.

    Compare with entering Hong Kong, at the Airport since MERS raised its head in the Middle East we’ve have temperature checks, no such thing at Heathrow or Gatwick, and that’s just for starters, as civil servants and private sector employees have either been forced to work from home or requested to work from home – compare the HKSAR Budget at the of February with that of the clown heads running our economy – its an international joke. And, now my folks are threatened by a disease, which in my neck of the woods is in retreat after a stringed government response putting life ahead of money.

    So, if the TRAITORS in the LP know why I despise them, here’s but one example.

    Just hope most of the buggers rot in hell, as they’ve consigned my folks to a hell of an existence in what few years they have left.

    1. Further factual proof , if you choose to believe me , my friend has just returned from Malaga Spain , into Brum airport today mid afternoon flight . Walked thro arrivals , no checks , no information , no advice on self quarantine , no temperature checks , no nothing NADA as you say Chris ,,, it would be a joke but it ain’t funny when anther plane load of 150 people all from Malaga get of in the second city with eff knows how many possible infections . Not their fault at all BUT eff me it is Johnsons and his Govt fault at the level of utter couldn’t give a fuckwittery over mitigating this spread ..
      Ahhhh I just realised ,,, its all part of the infestation plan init , letting it ” move through the society ” as spaffer Johnson says .

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