Analysis comment

Latest poll shows Rayner losing 42% support in Labour deputy leader contest, but Burgon boost may be understated

Huge fall since start of campaign – but re-allocation of support raises questions about who is being asked

Survation’s latest poll of Labour members’ voting intention in the party’s deputy leadership contest has shown a dramatic fall in the level of support for Establishment favourite Angela Rayner.

While Rayner polled 60% support in an equivalent Survation poll at the beginning of the contest, her numbers had tumbled by 25 points in yesterday’s poll, to just 35% – a loss of 42% of her initial support:

However, the redistribution of that support raises questions. Second-placed Richard Burdon has picked up 4%, but the robotic Rosena Allin-Khan received a 12-point bump and the dour Blairite Ian Murray gained five points, with Dawn Butler gaining just two.

Given the preponderance of left-wing Labour members – even assuming the post-election surge in numbers was all returning right-wingers – a bigger swing to more inspiring left-wing candidates Burgon and Butler would be expected as Rayner’s left credentials have crumbled over the past couple of weeks.

This may suggest that right-wingers are over-represented in Survation’s samples – and consequently that Burgon and Butler are outperforming the numbers the pollster is giving them.

Certainly Burgon’s popularity has surged on the back of a string of well-received rallies and hustings – and his decision to publicly take on Rayner over her Phillips-like comments about Jeremy Corbyn earlier this week.

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  1. Richard must do more rallies or any thing that brings him into DIRECT contact with the voters. Do no overestimate social media. The battle must be on all fronts. People like what they hear and see. Go to them. (nb sir starmie’s supporters r canvassing today and phoning around AND conducting polling. Again, whence cometh the funds???)

    1. ps Boris Johnson’s latest squeeze is pregnant with his 6th or 7th or 8th or 8th child or more… who knows ? ? ? Many won’t care, BUT seeing that he cast aspersions on poor single mothers, it then is very hypocritical to be the man responsible for impregnating any number of women, in parallel or series, then abandoning them thus making at least TWO single mothers with at least FIVE children.

      I sincerely wish this latest of Mr Johnson’s… “charms” well and all good wishes for all the children.

      Ps ps and NEWS of GREAT import, ONE of the Civil Servants and odds with Ms Petty Patel will hopefully pursue the government and Patel in court for constructive dismissal. Wish him strength and power to his elbow to resist ALL pressure to settle out of court. This may at last compel Patel to reveal exactly the nature and contents of her most irregular an UNAUTHORISED meetings with Israeli govt even the ¿PM? AND other “Israeli officials” on her “holiday”. ALL communications she had with Israeli officials would have to be revealed in court. Who what and why. We already know some of the when.

      This evidence will help to describe her integrity or lack of integrety. Her trustworthiness or lack of anything close. Why did Boris Johnson bring her back into government and gifting her with such a sensitive post? Was he forced? Why gas Theresa May been so silent on Patel retrieved from justified expulsion from the government? Why was Patel never prosecuted for blatant misconduct in a public office??? We need to know. We need honest accurate and FULL answers.

      1. Just reading this in the guardian, strange times indeed, when i find the guardian relevant … on point.

        ” The lowering of expectations for her career seems to have several causes. One is a seeming capacity for political misjudgment, notably her extracurricular visit to Israel, which baffled and outraged May and her team.

        Patel’s decision to hold a dozen unauthorised work meetings during what was billed as a family holiday, including with Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, seemed motivated by her vigorous opinions on foreign policy, apparently influenced by her ties to strongly pro-Israel and pro-US groups such as the Henry Jackson Society. ”


      2. 🟥 Re “Patel’s decision to hold a dozen unauthorised work meetings” , the guardian should have put “work” in inverted commas here. And, asked who’s work❓ Who’s paying❓ Why did Johnson rehire Patel❓ Why has she not been prosecuted for those unauthorised meetings❓ What PRECISELY was discussed with Benjamin Netanyahu❓ It is unheard of for a minister to have “work” meetings with a foreign PM. Even more concerning, WITHOUT AUTHORISATION. Again, matters like these should be relentlessly pursued by the MSM rather than propagandising against Jeremy Corbyn with vicious lies. All the while they have ill-served this country by giving a free pass to Tory governments with the most ODIOUS collection of individuals, to commit an endless litany of the most outrageous doings. The MSM failure to focus on the government, has given the likes of Johnson and Patel the opportunity to pursue the wishes of foreign entities, with the confidence that the MSM will be busy bashing Corbyn and Labour.

        Johnson, Patel and their entire fleet of dubious have associates have burning questions to answer. Start with disclosure of the transcript of Patel’s “work meeting” with Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli “officials”. And, was Johnson coerced to re higher Patel, despite her atrocious record❓ ❓ ❓

      3. Unfortunately, the constructive dismissal case would probably be entirely about her time at the Home Office, as it’s the former Home Office Permanent Secretary who’s taking her to tribunal.

        Allegations of similar bullying and so on at the Department of International Development might be admissible, as evidence of prior bad conduct (probably only if there’d been any form of action taken against her there), but her visit to Israel isn’t likely to be relevant to the tribunal and probably won’t be heard in court, disappointingly.

      4. Stark it can be. And a competent lawyer will have it admitted as it illustrates the way she sees her self, the character. A character without bounds re acceptable behaviour. He Israeli individual “foreign policy” was gross misconduct on steroids. Not to mention insubordination … as the “orders” of good ministerial conduct are implicit and explicit. Any competent would argue that her behaviour showed gross disrespect of the PM May. On the balance of probability, someone so dismissive of a Prime Minister is more than likely to bully even a senior civil servant ESPECIALLY if retrieved unashamedly from the bin of unsuitable ministers by Johnson.

        ps It may be best if you disagree with my reasoning on this matter to say so if you wish here but communicate the detail in private via We don’t wish Patel and her controllers to have any helpful advice. After all they can well buy it. They can buy lots of stuff… almost anything… and many MPs r quite cheap and overpriced at the same time. Tis a funny world… and not ha ha funny.

  2. Just a shame that Burgon didnt run in the leadership election.He’s got my vote as the most socialist mp of those given to us by the mighty PLP

    1. According to both of the recent polls RB would have joined Nandy as an also ran in the Leadership race.

    2. We nominated Richard Burgon in our CLP. The squatting MP & cabal wanted Murray. We organised behind Richard Burgon and he won!!!
      Think. Organise. Mobilise. Vote 🌹🌹🌹

    1. Translation:
      “I only care about the right-wingers, and I like that they pretend to be left-wingers”
      You’re so transparent RH. You completely understand the distinction, and it’s pure ‘toytown’ to pretend you think it doesn’t matter.
      That, and a lie. Another feature of the right.

    2. RH, in this forum only a right winger would write that.
      I expect you think of yourself as left of centre but nothing less than socialism red in tooth and claw will stop the super rich taking power and everything else.
      Under a Tory government it will happen sooner but it’ll still happen under a Labour government led by anyone who thinks there’s a way to negotiate some kind of middle way with the Tories and the 1%.
      When the two richest men in the world have put everyone else out of business they’ll still be fighting each other over the ashes of the planet they’ve destroyed – because the rich have no concept of ‘enough’.

      1. ” only a right winger would write that.”

        Rubbish, David. I would have expected more intelligence from you – unless you go along with the definition of ‘left winger’ as ‘failure’.

        … but the point is that such simple-minded definitions are just that – extremely simple-minded and pointless.

        Thing is – and the reality – that simplicity is for simpletons, not serious politics that aims for change.nothing less than socialism red in tooth and claw will stop the super rich taking power and everything else.

        “nothing less than socialism red in tooth and claw will stop the super rich taking power and everything else.”

        Well – that’s gone well as an imagined project, hasn’t it? In my recent recollection, an attempt at polite social democracy has gone tits-up.

        So – what’s the strategy – apart from shouting into the void, and using Skwaewkbox as therapy for the ignored?

        Pray tell.

      2. RH 29/02/2020 at 8:22 pm · ·
        ” only a right winger would write that.”

        Rubbish, David.

        Oh lordy! The mask’s slipping, dicky. 😮


        RH 29/02/2020 at 8:22 pm ·
        “nothing less than socialism red in tooth and claw will stop the super rich taking power and everything else.”

        Well – that’s gone well as an imagined project, hasn’t it? In my recent recollection, an attempt at polite social democracy has gone tits-up.”

        Hard to win the fight when there’s so many middle class subversive infiltraitors (sic) and saboteurs putting the kybosh on the grand scheme, isn’t it, dicky?

        But your constiuency returned a labour mp, so you must’ve done something right, eh?

        And you STILL claim you supported Corbyn? Like the rest of the slime, now he’s gone and it looks like the return of bliarism, the pretence has got weaker. The knives are now flying in from all directions – not just from media-whore philips’

        Even mcniven’s got wise to you.


        RH 29/02/2020 at 8:22 pm ·
        ”So – what’s the strategy – apart from shouting into the void, and using Skwaewkbox as therapy for the ignored?

        Pray tell.”

        Well, YOU’RE still here…Fuck knows why. Your job’s done isn’t it?

      3. Now you’re really full of it – using the recent GE loss to prove your Blairite theory that elections can only be won from the centre, and pretending that justifies your right wing “broad church” bullshit.
        The GE was only a battle in a war – a battle in which your team owned the only propagandaphone.
        Your team’s policies are about to make the lives of most of us much harder – sooner or later, even if the Left sits on its hands, the vast majority are going to see your ‘centrist’ scam for what it is.

        Now the only question of real consequence AGAIN.

        And I mean POLICIES. NO MORE WAFFLE.

        So far you’ve said NOTHING worthwhile.

        Coincidentally there’s a programme on PBS America tonight called “In the Age of AI” which everyone here needs to watch if they’re going to begin to see through the corporate “It’s all going to be fine – look at history” bullshit.

      4. David – Labour getting into power might prove to be an essential first step.

      5. Softee, just because I don’t attack every single stupid thing people like you and RH say you shouldn’t assume it’s because I can’t, or that I don’t see you.
        Just because I don’t take the piss out of either of you for every child-like spelling, grammar or ‘logic’ gaffe it’s not because I can’t – it’s because I find it tedious explaining simple things to simpler people.

      6. SteveH, 9:18, yes, Labour has to win a GE first but there’s no advantage to the many in Labour winning with a ‘centrist’ agenda despite what Blair pretends.
        Without winning on a redistributive manifesto Labour is pissing into a gale and the many at best get a few years’ marginally better conditions.
        Fail to reverse the wealth gap and the balance of power shifts cataclysmically this time. Your children become their children’s serfs in a decade or two. It’s that simple.
        The irony is that the AI that’s about to supercharge capitalism could instead remove the theorised bar to a socialist command economy by doing away with the need for a commissar class.
        Banks, corporations, investors – all the money-grubbing leeches of big capitalism – no need for them either.

      7. David – I would argue that the 2017 manifesto would represent a very positive step forward for the vast majority of the people in this country.

      8. Steve, 10:32, I hardly remember the 2017 manifesto but I’m happy to take your word – I don’t remember anything in the 2019 one I disagreed with either, even if it was a lot to digest at one sitting.
        We have to kill neoliberalism to make real progress and to do that first we have to re-regulate the casino – I even think there might be a way to sell the idea to the EU.
        We also have to find a way to explain to the electorate how the market is robbing them and we shouldn’t surprise them with it the week before the election.

  3. …. but weren’t these Survation results broadly consistent with the YouGov polling results published a few days ago.

  4. I have a healthy contempt for opinion polls, even the sainted Survation, and I really can’t see the point of reporting on them and then saying “But what’s really happening is this …”

    1. I think Survation has probably got it right- they are very reliable. All Richard and those of us who support him can do is actively campaign for him between now and the close of the ballot.Angela has alienated a lot of members by her recent comments and I think there is a good chance he could overtake her if we campaign hard enough

      1. Smartboy
        How can JC supporters not vote for Burgon
        Im genuinely confused
        By definition RB is the only 24 ct socialist
        Am i missing something

      2. Am I missing something

        Do you think the majority of the members and affiliates know something you don’t?

    2. “I have a healthy contempt for opinion polls”

      Yep. It’s a real bugger when they are accurate – as prior to the election.

      Imagination is sooo much more reassuring!

      1. And hindsight is a wonderful thing. Much better than all this silly speculation, don’t you think?
        Silly question. Of course you don’t think. You know everything.
        Can’t beat the certainty of a total idiot.

    1. The mental image of Johnson procreating is one that I could have happily done without.

    2. At least he’ll struggle to deny the existence of this latest one.

      Unless the Downing Street eugenicists have been meddling…

      1. Ah! Stark, what a thought! Which reminds me, where are the LIARS who slandered Jeremy? It shows the falseness. Eugenicist at the heart if Johnson’s government and where’s Berger, Ummuna, Swinson, Charlie Faulkner, Mandelsonn, the MSM where are they❓❓❓ And where is the vigorous rebuttal from the MPs who claim to support Jeremy. They care not a jot about anti-semitism or they would be apoplectic at Sabinsky & Cummings AND Johnson and the whole Tory party. The accusers are wicked liars who trample on the precious memory of millions and would happily see millions more die or where are the double hour segments EVERY day on LBC and Talkradio???

        Their silence now is proof that they care nothing about justice, nothing about equality and NOTHING about the project of anti-semites, eugenicists.

  5. I want Richard to be the deputy, but the Leader is more important. Rebecca is worryingly behind and must do something big and quickly.

    1. I agree Sandra. Richard is excellent. But Rebecca could boost her integrity by reading out each outrageous demand of the “pledge” document, whether she signed it or not. Critique it ROBUSTLY. Point out the abomination if its purpose ie to destroy any form of autonomy, equality for all under the law and effectively to hand over control of the party to an unrepresentative handful of unelected bullies who do not speak for everyone and brazenly try to declare decent proper groups as fringe. What the unelected ghastly intimidators call fringe are the voices that represent the true heart of TRUE Labour: Equality and justice for all.

      Rebecca should boldly dissect the disgusting list of demands more in keeping with some autocratic dictatorship ie you are guilty if we say so. Until Rebecca and all in Labour point out the obscenity of the demands that could have come from Pol Pot, the drift and decent into further absurdities will continue. CRITIQUE THE RIDICULOUS DEMANDS and SHRED THEM OUTSIDE PARLIAMENT.

      As ever, when matters are approached with fear trembling or with terms that carry no tangible meaning on the doorstep, matters that could be easily handled drag on and on with dead debates about dead people with dead words / terns that have some effect amongst well intentioned people who have long forgotten to check if their words ever achieved their intention. There is then a doubling down on the same abstract dead words and history of words and arguments over the meanings. Thus sodding the day to day REAL suffering of dispossessed people and every injustice abroad and people squeezed more and more at home. The flood victims are the result of this failure to grip and focus on real relevant problems and describe them ina real relevant way. Think about it. Many of the flood places now, have flooded badly EVERY SINGLE YEAR for the last seven years. How many tines did you hear any MP mention it in a sustained way BEFORE the floods now❓ ie need for dredging etc and the welfare of the last flooding.

      Grenfel: Anyone would think that all the victims are sorted. NB the only people brought to justice so far are the comparatively petty fraudsters. The big Tory gangsters roam free. They need a lengthy inquiry to establish their guilt. Funny justice that. There are people STILL living in homes with flammable cladding. How much have you heard about that❓ Before or in the campaign. ❓❓❓

      Our MPs desperately need to be visible IN PUBLIC like that Stewart fellow even. They need to see these big issues through not be swayed by MSM distraction.

      Set the agenda and SUSTAIN IT TO THE VERY END


        Agreed, but the fact she has already caved and declared she is a Zionist without actually knowing what a Zionist is, means it is highly unlikely.

        She will have made a calculation if being seen as a Zionst will gain or lose her votes. Is it too late for her to realise that being a Zionist is a badge of shame and therefore have second thoughts?

  6. Jack T, never too late. NB the coup plotters don’t think it too late to only now bleating about a need to be unified when they spent the last four years sowing the opposite. So it is never too late to develop courage. And it must be shown boldly. B O L D. The plotters and MSM are awful but the operation over the last fours years have always been on the back foot, on the retreat, trying to avoid upsetting the MSM, etc. I begged our group to be bold and challenge our despicable MP but many opted to appease and i quote one person – “we should reform” the creature. That and other things made me think our groups had been infiltrated, as it was such an astonishingly naive thing to say.

    The shock alone of RLB bravely seeing the light, will give life and meaning to her campaign. It has to be comityed and sustained. No half hearted ill judged odd comments like Ken or George, which i think are actually a result of a lifetime of not seeing change and a consequent drift away from eg a critique of the vile document. On point, clear, compare and contrast, CRISP. CLEAR and SUSTAINED with facts eg no other handful of unelected people can persuade potential party leaders to SIGN away the ability to lead. That is unacceptable full-stop. All the words Zionist this and that actually dilute the key relatable issues. By my reasoning it is a distracting obsession that sucks the tangibility out of straight forward operations suited to North Korea as it us described in the MSM. Sign this or you eomt be allowed to lead. OUTRAGEOUS. You stand in front of parliament, read out the demands, rip them apart and then shred the paper. Every decent person will see it as right and reasonable.

    And on the whole i TOTALLY object to leaders signing commitments in private WITHOUT consulting members. That is why OPEN SELECTION is so vital for democracy. Open Selection will help to remind MPs, they work for us NOT special interest secret groups.

    So yes, there i go off on one again, when i only meant to say it is NEVER to late to grow, to learn, to change, to show courage.

    1. it is NEVER to late to grow, to learn, to change, to show courage

      You’ll have fun trying to convince white flag Allan

    2. Signpost. If only she would do it, it could be the game changer she needs. I am not her greatest fan but she is the closest we have at the moment to a Socialist leader.

  7. I agree, Jack it would immediately propel her on the route to being a great leader. Courage is only difficult before action. If she takes the jump it is easy.
    Ps I’v given in to spell check and predictive. So peeps may see fewer errors. I type with one finger at speed and am reluctant to check ( I know v bad me ) Just afraid of finding things to correct again and again.

    1. Ps “ committed “ in earlier post. Suspect there is a deliberate poor calibration of this touch screen in order to “encourage” the use of predictive and auto correct etc.

      1. Have you noticed how good Google speech-to-text is getting?
        It’s accurate even on my old Samsung S4. A set of select/drag/drop tools on a bigger screen and I think it’s going to be usable.

      2. Definitely won’t use Google speech to text. Or any speech to text. I avoid google. I feel safer č Duck Duck Go ➕ their search engine.

      3. Ps D McNiv & all – never install extra keyboards on mobile devices. EVERY SINGLE KEY STROKE is transferred to foreign places USA for processing. It the data is easily interruptible byChina, Russia and Israel. There are industries just for that. One can never be too careful. So avoid voice to text u mention. The processing is not usually local.

        Another matter: Starmer making noises about Patel. Regrettable that RLB and Richard Burgon slow off the blocks on this issue. Possibly because so much … too much of the attention of well meaning people with our aims and values find niche, esoteric, abstract, ie virtue signalling issues they cannot change, or if even they could change, they are niche issues that are over and above basic needs. To me it makes sense to use scarce resources including time and passion to make things much better for the maximum number of people. No? ? ?

        The Patel GROSLY inappropriate “privatised “ foreign policy … ie outsourced to her, is of huge import. She should not have been retrieved from the rubbish bin of ex ministers. Even Theresa May had the sense to bin Ms Patel. Could you imagine the outrage if Dianne Abbott had gone on “holiday” to another country and had one let alone A DOZEN “work” meetings with THEIR Prime Minister and unknown unverified “officials”❓ ❓ ❓

        So, the next time the MSM stooges and usual suspects attempt to bash Jeremy and is with downright lies, HAVE NONE OF IT! 🌹🌹🌹

  8. Signpost. I hope she realises she has nothing to lose and everything to gain. She would of course be slated by the JLM but if she’s learnt anything from JC’s mistakes, she’ll take them on.

    1. Exactly. Fear squeezed JC. MSM and shady groups should be taken on with TURBO CHARGED LASER-LIKE precision. Plus, take no prisoners. Blair may have been out of action if the opposition front bench had turned up to support Alex Salmond’s motion. Hodge should have been expelled long ago, Twatson same, McNic not given a peerage etc. Decisive action brings people together NOT bullying, not threats but clear decisive action. Immediately after first coup should have been massive clean out. Alas people believe the myth of “big names”. Result? 4 years of hiding, silence, concessions rewarded with kicks, open insults plus MPs with talent denied the opportunities of experience.
      When slimy snakes are spitting venom, it is plain stupid to be afraid to act lest they spit. THEY ARE SPITTING ALREADY! Crush them! Those convinced should ask, how has four years of caution and timidity and appeasement worked? Didn’t work for Chamberlin. Won’t work for RBL, us … anyone, ever.

  9. RLB’s attempt to reboot her campaign is off to a reasonable start.

    Labour leadership hopeful Rebecca Long-Bailey has released a six-point plan to stop the “corrupting influence of corporate money in politics”, prevent “vested interests” from “buying policy” and “end the gentleman’s club in Westminster”.

    1. No influence without taxation – a ban on all political donations from tax avoiders and tax evaders, as well as those not domiciled in the UK

    2. Closing the loopholes – stopping shell companies that funnel dark money into politics, and ending the secrecy of “donor clubs” that are used to hide the names of donors

    3. Maximum transparency – repealing the Lobbying Act and introducing a corporate lobbying register that would cover in-house lobbyists and think tanks, and be extended to meetings with all senior government staff

    4. No delays – publishing all large political donations that have been accepted by political parties, so the public is able to find out instantly about potential conflicts of interest or outside influences, including during an election campaign

    5. Serving the public full-time – a ban on MPs taking paid second jobs, with exceptions for those working to keep a professional qualification such as nursing

    6. Stop the revolving door – introduce a new business appointments committee to replace the ineffective Advisory Committee on Business Appointments, that will prevent former ministers lobbying government for a minimum of five years after leaving office

    1. AT LAST! Good start and focus. TOTALLY support each one. Number 6 should be implemented AT ONCE. Have long believed that! The excellence of these points show DISTINCT hope for RLB. The other candidates would never be concerned with those URGENTLY needed aspects of OPEN DEMOCRACY. A 7th would be OPEN SELECTION and NOW🌹🌹🌹

    2. SteveH. We have an insidious media. RLB should also include a plan to combat the influence of the right wing oligarchs, who own most of the media and corrupt our democracy.

      Where is her plan to bring democracy to the Labour Party and end the witch hunt?

      In fact do ANY of the candidates have plans to tackle these issues?

    1. Would never do that unless prepared to be ASSERTIVE, prepared and take no prisoners. I don’t watch TV. Radio all the way for me. Since the Iraq invasion fallout, Today program etc have been almost totally ditched. Used to be compulsory listening. No more. Further, would have long done what BloJohn, or Cummings implements. Dump Today prog and BBCs other “news” progs. They are skilful propaganda. Hypnotising the “intelligent”. Think, what have you ever really learnt from listening to those progs. Selected TALKRADIO and selected LBC for me. Mike GRAHAM, Iain Dale, George Galloway compulsory when he was on. Never The LBC 10-13 slot as it is wearingly repetitive predictable pompous self promoting smarmy drivel same as the weekends 12-15 slot. I dip in and out of the other progs.

  10. Cor! But you had me extremely worried you’d sold out for a moment there, Skwawky…😅

    *SPOILER* It’s not the Steve H you were thinking it was.

    Brilliant insights by Steve H. That this has only 20-odd RTs is a worrying sign…

  11. Rosena Allin-Khan is the only contender who voted for Trident replacement,

    It’s definitely a ‘no’ from me.

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