The crucial poll numbers from last night’s debate that will thrill Labour supporters and terrify Tories

Corbyn wins big among viewers who had not yet decided how to cast their vote

Last night’s ITV Leaders’ Debate sparked controversy not least because media pundits insisted on presenting the event as almost a draw, in spite of ITV’s poll of thirty thousand viewers suggesting that a massive 78% thought Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn won.

But there are two areas in which even YouGov, which tends to understate Labour support, agreed that Corbyn won big – and in reality, those two areas are the only ones that matter.

According to YouGov’s poll, Corbyn was viewed overwhelmingly as the winner among voters who have not yet made their mind up how to vote in the general election.

Among people who said they would decide nearer to polling day how to vote, Corbyn won by 59 points to 41 – an advantage to Corbyn of eighteen points.

And among those who declared themselves ‘not sure’ how they will vote, Corbyn won by 74 points to 26 – a massive 48-point differential in Corbyn’s favour:

And those undecideds are the crucial audience in the leaders’ debates. Entrenched voters on either side are unlikely to change their voting intention – but among those whose vote is still in play, Corbyn won.

By a mile.

This news will be a massive further boost for Labour’s grassroots and candidates who have already seen Labour make significant gains in the first phase of the general election campaign, before the party’s manifesto has even been published.

Vision, policies, authenticity and integrity are on Labour’s side – and among undecided voters, the party’s leader just trounced his opponent.

Vote Labour. Campaign Labour. Reach those undecideds on the doorstep and social media, while Labour’s leadership reaches them via broadcasters.

When Labour wins, we all win.

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  1. Those who are undecided on how to vote must be completely housebound and not able to go out in the streets to see the amount of hungry homeless people there.

  2. Agree
    It’s the ground war and JC what will win it,
    Just want JC to be more specific on NHS, longest cut in funding since 1945, have not built 40 hospitals in their history, between 1979 and 1997 how many were commissioned and built by cheap and nasty Tory party, zero 0 nada sofa
    I believe you have a visceral hatred of public services in general and the NHS in particular which is backed up by your record as mayor, less police officers and less police stations
    You are a liar and a charlatan and you lead a thoroughly corrupt party

  3. Glad you got round to the overall picture in the end, Skwawky. Conspiracy theories can be a right old distraction at times 🙂

  4. JC
    It matters not a jot how I might vote in a 2nd referendum, what matters is that the Labour party refuses to throw half the country under a bus
    Only Labour will offer a deal that protects jobs and standards and put it back to the people

  5. DentAid charity picks up NHS slack with mobile dentistry bus, raising provision almost to 1930’s levels.
    Mrs Wiggum launches manifesto to indifference of undeserving public.
    HM graciously allows spare heir to retire from working almost a whole hour a week to avoid sidelong glances of riffraff and thoughts of republic.

  6. Whilst doing some research earlier, I came across the following article by Jon Lansman posted on May 14th this year on the LabourList website, and despite having very large reservations about Lansman – and for a number of good reasons – he exposes the shenanigans annd machinations of the Blairite/McNicol former LP staffers in the piece. Here’s an extract:

    The emails that were leaked by disgruntled Labour right ex-staffers were used to attack a process that they themselves set up. They, of their own volition, asked party staff in the leader’s office for their views on a handful of cases last year, after Iain McNicol left and before Jennie Formby had started. This only lasted a couple of weeks as Jennie Formby asked them to stop when she took up her post.

    The authority to take decisions on cases rested with them, not the leader’s office, and the emails leaked to the Sunday Times showed it was those ex-staffers who emailed the leader’s office repeatedly seeking their views – not the leader’s office emailing to insert themselves into decisions. I think this may have been their plan all along: to ask staff in the leader’s office for their views on cases under the guise of addressing the backlog, then to later use the emails to allege leader’s office interference.


    Well, you can be 100% certain that it WAS their plan by the very fact that the former staffers later used the ‘episode’ to claim it as evidence that Jeremy and Co – the Leader’s office – were interfering in the investigatory process – ie to fraudulently claim such was the case.

    The mendacity and deviousness of fascists/sociopaths is limitless, and an endless source of amusement to them.

  7. Johnson has announced that he is going to raise the threshold on the level of when one pays N.I contributions.
    Given that such deductions from salaries go into the Government pot called State Pension, won’t the lessening of NI contributions reduce this pot ??

    1. It is a bit of a myth that NI contributions go into a pot to cover pensions etc unless you are referring to the one big pot where all tax goes. However what is of concern is that the entitlement to a state pension is dependant on people’s NI contributions record so what will happen to the state pension entitlement of those who will no longer be paying any NI contributions.

  8. Oh, and I also came across this Nazi-type peace of filth by the buddies of the above ex-staffers at the CAA. You can be 150% certain that anyone calling out the vile and demonic Big Lies about the Jews in the early days in Germany before Hitler and Goebbels and Co took complete control of the media would have received the same treatment:

    Usual suspects sign disgraceful letter……

      1. In true fascist style the CAA lies about Jeremy lying AND lies about the audience laughing. The joke of it is that they’ve posted a video of the debate at the end of their vile black propaganda piece, and mention at what point that particular section starts. It’s like they are so arrogant and egotistical, they think that if THEY put something in peoples heads, then they’ll believe that it happened even if they watch the video (the section in question, that is). They really ARE megalomaniacs!

    1. Truly disgusting but hardly unpredictable!

      I have long had a high regard for Chomsky despite his lack of interest in the important assassinations of JFK, MLK, RFK etc.

  9. There were 5 polls taken on Tuesday night, the YouGov poll is very obviously the odd one out both for its small sample size and its results.

    The respective sample sizes are in brackets
    Britain Elects (33,000) – Corbyn 57%, Johnson 28%
    ITV (30,000) – Corbyn 78%, Johnson 22%
    Martyn Lewis (23,000) – Corbyn 46% Johnson 25%
    The Times (8,000) – Corbyn 63% Johnson 37%
    You Gov (1,646) – Corbyn 49% Johnson 51%”

    1. I wonder which one was widely covered by the MSM.

      Hmm, now let me think…….

    2. The ITV trawl was X-Factor, not a valid sample, and the headline YouGov result was misleadingly reported (surprise surprise) in terms of its other key findings (see above and also a differently phrased question, which was ignored by the media).

      1. It’ll be necessary to wait for a bit to get an update of the moving average of polls to get some idea of whether the debate appears to have shifted stated voting intentions.

      2. RH 21/11/2019 at 12:32 am

        I agree that it would be premature to get too excited but the release of Labour’s manifesto later today will also give Labour a significant boost. (assuming they’ve got their sums right),

        When the Tories eventually publish their manifesto it will be interesting to see how much of it is a reaction to the Labour’s manifesto. According to the Express the Tory’s don’t plan to publish their manifesto until sometime next week, we all know how much Boris and his pals fear scrutiny.

        The contrast between the 2 parties is stark, Labour rely on publicising the policies in their manifesto to boost their support whilst the Tories delay publication to minimise the damage to their support.

      3. RH 21/11/2019 at 12:22 am
        I don’t think anyone is claiming that the ITV poll was scientifically a representative sample (how could it be) but the large number of respondents plus the very short time-frame mean that the results can’t just be dismissed out of hand.

        To give ITV their due the above observations by SB were also highlighted on tonight’s Peston.

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