Analysis comment

Poll average shows 4.2-point Labour surge since GE called

With official general election campaign not yet a week old, average of major polls shows significant Labour gain

Almost all the major polling companies – including 2017’s most accurate – have shown significant Labour gains in the not-quite seven days since the official general election campaign began.

The Labour improvement by polling company is:

• YouGov +7%
• DeltaPoll +5%
• Opinium +5%
• PanelBase +3%
• Survation +5%
• ComRes 0%

giving an average Labour surge of 4.2 points in just that short period.


Labour’s determined, disciplined focus on a positive campaign of policies for real change and a vision of what kind of country the UK’s people could be living in is working. Keep going.

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  1. Great campaign so far. Ignore the haters in the BBC, keep it on policy and highlight the appalling levels of deprivation cause by Tory and Liberal democrat austerity.

  2. Great until we learn that the Tory lead over Labour has grown, and will continue to do so as the Brexit party stands down turning their voters into Tory ones! Labour’s only chance was to collaborate with the LibDems by both parties standing down candidates in a similar way, but this isn’t happening. There are enough anti-Brexit votes to stop it, but these are more interested in fighting one another!

    1. I chappel…. “Collaberate with the lib dems” .Its good to hear differing opinions and tactics but have you never heard of political suicide and what happens to collaborators?Sorry never been into rigged voting and propaganda.. Time for bed with that nightmare scenario Swansong and Jeremy Corbyn. Yes and pigs might fly.!

    2. Our Labour for all, not just a few, should NEVER collaborate with the TINGE CUK absorbing Lib Dems.

      Judge the collaborators by the deplorable with whom they are happy to line. Condemned with ever ship jumping plague carrying rats they accept.
      The proven FakeDems, stand for nothing. Not even DEMOCRACY. They accept anything EVEN homophobic duplicitous bigots. Yet they are happy to endorse as “leader” of their scummily contrived “Government of National Unity” a past endorser of the “Paedophile Information Exchange”. Talk about a broad religion!

      But the Shameless Dem fanatical church FULL of fantasist rejected Jeremy Corbyn. They know he is not of their false religion. They know Jeremy Corbyn’s insightful and proven excellent judgement. Jeremy was right against BLAIR’s ILLEGAL IRAQ INVASION. Right against wars that have brought us NO safety yet millions of desperate refugees. Right against the ideological TORY austerity imposed on the poor. Right against WICKED IDEOLOGICAL Tory Austerity for the poor, but lavish funds for the FAILED BANKERS. LAVISH RENUMERATION for the outsourced “executors” of the DWP – ATOS. Right against rampant ravaging of the public coffers to reward for failure and suffering by – G4S chaotic prisons, G4S embarrassing Olympic performance, needing rescue from the public via our poorly paid soldiers. Right against Tory Carillon… the list is endless. Even yesterday it was confirmed that the UK has suffered the worst economic decline for TEN YEARS. Almost in recession. Jeremy predicted that the stupid Tory austerity would do just that. Wreck the economy. They always do. Then Labour cleans up the Tory mess but with too much noble silence. WE MUST LET THE PUBLIC KNOW THE FACTS. They MUST be repeated until the myth of Tory economic competence is demolished.

      So as Jeremy Corbyn is clearly proven right on the crucial issues for a good life for all, the LimpDems reject him for someone more of their kind, who could not even admit, like her associate Patricia Hewitt, to being “naive and wrong.” Who is their choice for high priest? Yes Harriet Harman.

      This typifies the Condemned lack of judgement. This is their type. Like the Facebook enabling Nick Clegg – Harriet Harman. Unlike Hewitt, Harman “denied she had supported PIE while at NCCL and the specific allegation that she supported a campaign for the age of consent to be reduced to 10, and expressed regret at the involvement of the NCCL with PIE.[48][49][50] Dromey also denied the accusations. Harman and Dromey met at the NCCL, now Liberty. No matter its achievements. The disturbing lack of judgement AND remorse of Harman, makes her ideal fir the LibDem unfunny masquerade.

  3. You either believe the polls or you don’t…I don’t because after the last fiasco we discovered that the public are pathological liars or they are rigged like most everthing else including The BBC and every newspaper outlet.We should learn from the past history of tory facts…lies and more lies.If they get in again they will gerrymander the boundrys and revert back to “responsible” voter system that worked right until the 1970S in Ulster.and excluded the majority of the nationalist community from voting…I don’t forget the lessons of the past and remember the party behind state apparthied and violence….The Conservative and unionist party.Theyve got form and only jeremy Corbyn who knows how to stop them and how to win this election.!

  4. As Farage tips his cap to the Tory bosses, improving Johnson’s chances of winning, Labour face the dismal prospect of undying enmity from the LibDems. The LD candidate in Canterbury stood down today because any vote for he felt would virtually guarantee a Tory gain. Good for him. The Party then announced they would appoint ANOTHER candidate to stop the country possibly slipping into the hands of the Bolsheviks. Similar situation in Kensington where recent fully paid up high profile Etonian Tory Sam G says he prefers a Tory to a Bolshevik, which isn’t that surprising given he was a High Flying Tory 10 minutes ago.
    Labour’s biggest threat is from the LibDems. Hopefully they will be punctured by just that realisation.among voters. When they reneged on Tuition Fees and enthusiastically backed and FOUGHT for austerity programmes, many said they’d never be forgiven. Memories are very short. When Johnson begins his 5 years of majority government many LD’s will surely rue the day they ever thought it made sense to split the left of centre and give them a ‘2nd chance’.
    At least with Jeremy Thorpe you got a certain style and quite a few good jokes……..not evident today!

    1. “When Johnson begins his 5 years of majority government many LD’s will surely rue the day they ever thought it made sense to split the left of centre and give them a ‘2nd chance’.
      NO THEY WON’T‼️‼️‼️ LibDems are as one with infinite Tory wickedness. Check their chums. Note well Swan-song’s voting record. The fantasist out nasties even the most repellent “Conservatives”.
      The LyingDems can’t wait for a 2nd chance to conserve heartless greed. They conserve generous socialism for the super rich 1% and swinging, suicide creating, library closing, NHS privatising, mental health destroying, economy crashing, quality of life decaying unjust “capitalism” on the 99%… Creative but unmasked bandits! The ConDems love that. They are deceitful out of touch moral voids. Sorry to mince my words. BANDITS🔵

  5. Paul you’ve got your finger on the button and the thought of throwing away our credibility to appease Labour backsliders who don’t understand that credibility and Labour policy is our main campaign message.!Collaboration with the Swsnsong party?.?.

      1. Well thats good Toffee because if he wins he will experience more than a clash.He will need more than water cannons he mothballed

  6. People used to laugh about ‘Crossroads’ being the worst soap opera of its time.
    More recently I’ve heard Jimmy Carr take the piss out of the acting in something called ‘Hollyoaks’.
    Apparently whoever directed BloJob’s little contribution to the genre had a similar dedication to quality.
    Do give up the day job, Boris.

  7. The people making predictions rely on there being only two possible results – right or wrong – not on inside knowledge or amazing political insight.
    All their predictions rely upon or neglect:
    1. three year old results of a single issue referendum, opinions on which may have changed or become demographically outdated.
    2. results of previous elections which must be adjusted for such things as boundary changes, population movement & demographics, and events since those elections.
    3. current polls which rely on:
    a) those polled being a representative sample and
    b) those polled telling the truth or even having a fucking clue.
    c) pollsters not being politically motivated
    4. a random fucking newspaper headline.

    The election result will depend on many things, some of which are as yet unknown or haven’t even happened yet.
    The relative significance to the electorate of all the variables and therefore the result of the election cannot be predicted with any accuracy or confidence – so making a prediction is either blind stupidity or an attempt to influence the result.
    Sometimes the motivation is obvious, other times less so.

  8. I go by survation alone. It won’t tell us who will win the election but it gives a reasonable direction of how the population is changing their opinions over time

  9. You can hang on every twitch of every individual poll, or you can dismiss all polls as garbage.

    Both display of a lack of grasp of what polls are and what constraints operate. The intelligent position is just to look at the data, with due knowledge of what it actually is : a sample of what people say in response to particular questions at a particular point in time. That’s all. They contain statistical error from a number of sources, known and unknown. Above all, they aren’t Aunt Fanny with her crystal ball, and don’t pretend to predict an election result – particularly in a situation as febrile as this; generally the error component will embrace the possibility of either of the main parties being in the lead at any given point – although the probabilities will differ.

    What they can tell you – with a bit of thinking – is the current range of probable state of things. With reservations.

    Use of some form of moving average is more useful than looking at a single poll, and currently, Labour seems to be heading in the right direction, but the Tories (discounting the massive issues about individual constituencies) still have about a ten point lead.

    The last election is often used as an illustration of the uselessness of polls. The actuality is that, whilst not predicting the marginal result, the moving average very accurately reflected the trend of Labour gains leading up to the election.

    For those interested, The Groan has an interesting academic/technical perspective on polling :

  10. I have a sneaking feeling we may be experiencing something I last saw in the early 1980s,shy voters.Then it was people who would not own up to being Thatcher voters,now I suspect it is people who don’t want to admit to voting Labour!

    1. Could be. But I’m not sure what the inhibition might be. Whereas it was clear in the case of Thatcher, it’s difficult to see any comparable peer shame in voting Labour.

      1. Oh, come on. Can you really not imagine why people might be reluctant to say they are voting for the incompetent, anti-Semitic terrorist-sympathising communist who will bankrupt the country (as we are supposed to believe Corbyn is)?

      2. I take your point, UV – but I’ve not come across any. Most of those for whom ‘antisemitism’ might be expected to have an effect actually discount it as the RW scam it is, and those who don’t much rate Corbyn for other reasons would still vote Labour.

        But, tht said … the proof of the pudding will be the loosely attached Tories.

        Let’s hope.

  11. Tesla has announced that because of Brexit issues it will build its new European car and battery manufacturing facility in Germany instead of the UK.

      1. The loss of opportunity bill just gets bigger and bigger.

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