New polling by most consistently Tory-friendly pollster puts Tories on just 28% – second to show their support in 20s this week
A new poll of Westminster voting intention issued by YouGov shows the Conservatives trailing on just twenty-eight percent:
YouGov has often been described as an ‘outlier’, putting Tory support around five percent higher than other polling companies, so the new poll will be reverberating around Downing Street and Tory association offices.
The poll is the second this week to show Tory support below thirty percent. Two days ago, BMG put the Tories on twenty-nine percent – after a huge fall in less than a month:
LAB: 31% (-3)
CON: 29% (-10)
CHUK: 8% (+8)
LDEM: 8% (-4)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
BREX: 6% (+6)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via @BMGResearch, 02 – 05 Apr. Changes shown versus week of 8 Mar standard voting intention)
The new results mean Labour’s position across the board of polling companies is:
- BMG (Labour +4%)
- Delta (Labour +5%)
- Survation (Labour +4%)
- Kantar (Labour +4%)
- Hanbury (Labour +9%)
- Opinium (Both level)
- ComRes (Both level)
- YouGov (Labour +4%)
SKWAWKBOX comment:
Two such results in a few days, particularly by companies with a reputation for more favourable results for the Tories, puts Theresa May’s position under even greater pressure. However, the Tories hamstrung themselves in December, when MPs – many of whom had been severely critical of her performance – voted in her favour in a confidence vote among Conservative MPs. Conservative party rules ban any further no-confidence move for twelve months.
The SKWAWKBOX needs your support. This blog is provided free of charge but depends on the generosity of its readers to be viable. If you can afford to, please click here to arrange a one-off or modest monthly donation via PayPal or here for a monthly donation via GoCardless. Thanks for your solidarity so this blog can keep bringing you information the Establishment would prefer you not to know about.
If you wish to reblog this post for non-commercial use, you are welcome to do so – see here for more.
Currently Theresa May is one of Labour’s best electoral assets.
Have to say I agree , much as I’d love to see her “under a bus ” replacing her with anyone else IMO tends to breath some life back into the tories .New PM new person , new chance an all that ( good ol Brit benefit of the doubt crap ) NOOOOOO its the same flaming policies .
I’m afraid that you’re right. I don’t want to be a party pooper – but a cool look is necessary. All that has happened is an easing of the position of Labour relative to the Tories. The most noticeable trend is still the loss of support for both major parties. Scotland is still a severe deficit for Labour.
… and May – although unpopular – has manage to stay ahead of Corbyn. Yes, we can see the massive black propaganda campaign that has led to this – but that is the current position.
As to a change in Tory leadership – it is quite likely to give the illusion of change and a boost to popularity. There’s still enough dodos around to even give Johnson credibility.
GE? I can’t see the Tories + DUP risking their skins.
In olden times a week was a long time in politics – now it’s down to about a day.
It used to be that a new PM’s honeymoon period could last six months or more but there’d usually have been a change of government.
If there’s another un-elected Tory PM it might get a night in a Wetherspoons if it’s lucky.
At first glance it’s encouraging. However, Tories loss is NOT Labour’s gain, it’s other Parties that are taking the votes from Conservatives.
It’s the febrile volatility that’s currently the main feature, coupled with the breakdown of traditional allegiances. Given the amount of information available, this isn’t a particularly better informed electorate – more an electorate that likes to blame any handy ‘other’ and repeat ” ‘Snot me; iss them”.
I try not to be too cynical, but A L Mencken’s cynical brain keeps intruding. (Look up a page of his quotations if you can’t place him).
As David points out, it’s not easy to place any safe bets even from day to day.
RH, absolutely. ‘For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong’. Just checked to make sure of the wording and found you can get it as a slogan on a hoodie! I’m sorely tempted.
Indeed. Mencken was an ‘ornary’ bugger who was wrong on a lot of issues – but he was also got some things pithily banged to rights. And he makes me chuckle – which only Groucho among the Marxists can manage 🙂
As I said a couple of days ago, we should be very wary of the Hanbury poll that put Labour nine points ahead and, as such, completely disregard it. And the fact that the yougov/Times poll is in line with other recent polls is – on top of the Hanbury poll – also very suspicious.
It’s impossible to know of course, but the increase in support for Labour does seem to have happened since the ‘target practice’ episode or, to be more precise, when it was first widely reported by the media.
Anyway, regarding the wikipedia list of poll results, I just noticed yesterday that since the TIG formed, the yougov/Times polls consistently have ‘Others’ four or five points or more higher than other polls, which on average have ‘Others’ on 3% (in the 2019 listings).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
NB And I should point out that the yougov/Times results recently have highlighted the Brexit Party percentage (hold cursor over ‘a’ and ‘b’ etc in the ‘Others’ column), and although the yougov/Times poll has been added to both the ‘2019’ listing AND the ‘Polls Including TIG’ listing, only the latter highlights the Brexit Party percentage.
I think the only way to look at the polls is via the time-series smoothing, which requires a time lag. In current conditions, the error component of any single poll is very significant – and you don’t need a conspiracy to create misleading inaccuracy if significance is claimed where there is none in statistical terms.
There was a bus painted up in Brexit Party colours parked at the Bull Ring market in Brum this morning. No time wasted,……and clearly some resources available.
Outliers! Disregard the polls! So say the same people here who vehemently argue we must stop Brexit because of polls.
All the usual centrist suspects: SteveH, RH, Allan Howard.
Jokers. Clowns.
Waah! Waah! Waaah1 They’ve all got iin-fa-me!
Knocking on doors for the local elections in my neck of the woods the number of Tory supporters who said that they were not voting at all because they were “fed up with the lot of them” was very impressive. I have never come across that before in 30 years.
None of the polls ever show a category for “undecided” or “don’t vote” which will have a big influence on the projections that they do show.
Albert, that’s the sort of post I like to read!