Polling companies’ findings on voters’ Westminster voting intention are one thing – but bookies’ odds are another, one that’s often more reliable.
And UK online bookies seem to know something the UK’s Establishment media isn’t telling us, as a glimpse at their odds for the next Prime Minister and a 2019 general election tell us:
9/2 – a little over four to one – are the most generous odds anyone is offering at the moment, while the odds offered by other bookmakers are currently as short as three to one.
These odds have shortened since the end of last week, meaning that the companies think Jeremy Corbyn in Number 10 is more likely now than it was last week – a very different picture to that pushed by the so-called ‘MSM’.
Not only that, but they expect it to happen soon. Current odds on a 2019 general election are as short as 11/10 – almost 50/50. Meanwhile, the odds of a later year than 2019 – including the 2022 date scheduled under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act – are far longer.
In short, people who make their living from such predictions think the most likely scenario is a 2019 general election resulting in a Corbyn-led government.
SKWAWKBOX comment:
Bear that in mind the next time Establishment and centrist mouthpieces are telling you that neither are likely, or misleading you that Labour is haemorrhaging support because of Brexit.
If you do fancy a bet, please do so responsibly – and seek help if it’s a compulsion.
The SKWAWKBOX needs your support. This blog is provided free of charge but depends on the generosity of its readers to be viable. If you can afford to, please click here to arrange a one-off or modest monthly donation via PayPal or here for a monthly donation via GoCardless. Thanks for your solidarity so this blog can keep bringing you information the Establishment would prefer you not to know about.
If you wish to reblog this post for non-commercial use, you are welcome to do so – see here for more.
a) Nine to two equates to four and a half to one.
b) The odds are drive by the number of bets laid. It’s not really ‘the companies think Jeremy Corbyn in Number 10 is more likely’ – it’s more about what the customers think.
and the customers are a cross section of the electorate
I doubt that.
Also, more revealing and tellingly, the public who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is, and these people are very often those who can least afford to do this, and this is why I trust the bookies odds more than any opinion poll. Because it is not hedge fund managers who are betting on a certain outcome in order to increase their millions, but ordinary people who do risk suffering a real consequence if they are wrong. Of course, bookies have been known to be wrong before, but I think, in general, they are more reliable than the opinion polls.
I think that you may have too rosy and rational a view of the gambling impulse.
Point B isn’t necessarily correct, Ian.
What annoys me and has put me off gambling at the ‘makers’ is that a media mogul shouldn’t be allowed to own betting companies. There is an enormous conflict of interest.
Example: You are watching sky news (for example) and the reporter mentions something favourable for may (As they do) then mentions the odds have shortened on her remaining as PM and sky bet are offering a special bet on that pile o’ sh**…
Now that story could be absolute bollocks (And probably will be) but to your average mug punter…Well they’ll see that and be tempted to make THAT on the strength of what they’ve reported…
I’m not saying sky DO do that – or even HAVE done, but with the amount of fake news about…And murdoch’ll have to recoup at least some of the losses from somewhere if Corbyn gets in…
Just sayin’…
I don’t think I’d pin too much hope on the twitches of the gambling industry at a random point in time detached from any general election!
The bookies and the markets are always the most accurate gauge of the public mood…
Take nothing from the bookies, they had leave at 7-1 the day before the referendum. I would say it’s not a big market for them. So it would be a little bit of money placed, Then opinion.
Bookies are not in the business of losing money.
Do they give odds on how many times Jeremy Corbyn will be smeared this year?
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/01/18/us-agribusiness-lobby-calls-on-trump-to-target-uk-food-and-environment-rules-in-brexit-trade-deal/
I have no idea how bookies set odds but when punters make a bet it must represent a genuine belief – or at least a hope – that their choice will win them money.
There can’t be many gamblers who believe their choice can influence the result.
On the other hand there are any number of reasons for people to lie to pollsters or for pollsters subtly or blatantly to bias the questions.
In the current situation – which is volatile, but moving within an unusually narrow range, any single poll indicator – or even a short series – isn’t going to provide much enlightenment.
Better to look at what is happening over time. What worries me is that, even given the utter disarray of the Tories, Labour is still even-pegging with them, with the Tories actually recovering a bit of ground since the general election.
Forget, for a moment the details of policy. Even allowing for the anti-Corbyn propaganda, and the fact that Brexit has created a division other than a party political one – is there a ‘Blair problem’ here? – Labour failing to distinguish itself sufficiently in popular perception from Tory policies? So the punters shrug their shoulders and tend to stay in silos?
I wouldn’t put my money on a general election in the immediate future, even though the Tories appear to have been using the idea to put pressure on their MPs. Frankly, they are likely to avoid one – hanging on is what they do best.
So – the odds are that the general election will be in 2022. Is the best hope for Labour to simply take over when the country is sick of the Tories, hoping that the continued mess and slow decline of the economy will be pinned on the Tories? Whilst the latter, if this happens, will do the usual – stand on the sidelines and throw bricks whilst Labour tries to implement alternative policies whilst dealing with the economic problems following the Tory Brexit?
Or is there an alternative?
P.S : This new survey of conflicting public attitudes contains a lot of food for thought :
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Public-Opinion-2019-report.pdf