Polling companies’ findings on voters’ Westminster voting intention are one thing – but bookies’ odds are another, one that’s often more reliable.
And UK online bookies seem to know something the UK’s Establishment media isn’t telling us, as a glimpse at their odds for the next Prime Minister and a 2019 general election tell us:
9/2 – a little over four to one – are the most generous odds anyone is offering at the moment, while the odds offered by other bookmakers are currently as short as three to one.
These odds have shortened since the end of last week, meaning that the companies think Jeremy Corbyn in Number 10 is more likely now than it was last week – a very different picture to that pushed by the so-called ‘MSM’.
Not only that, but they expect it to happen soon. Current odds on a 2019 general election are as short as 11/10 – almost 50/50. Meanwhile, the odds of a later year than 2019 – including the 2022 date scheduled under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act – are far longer.
In short, people who make their living from such predictions think the most likely scenario is a 2019 general election resulting in a Corbyn-led government.
Bear that in mind the next time Establishment and centrist mouthpieces are telling you that neither are likely, or misleading you that Labour is haemorrhaging support because of Brexit.
If you do fancy a bet, please do so responsibly – and seek help if it’s a compulsion.
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