When poll not commissioned by PV campaign, ‘new ref’ results tell VERY different story

Centrists pushing the campaign for a so-called “people’s vote” (PV) have made much of a poll conducted by them to support their claim that support for a new EU referendum has snowballed – usually when they are trying to pressure Labour into backing it.

But a poll recently showed that any support by Labour for another referendum would cost the party votes in a general election – unless the Tories act first to call a referendum.

Now a new ComRes poll of public opinion about a new referendum – one not commissioned by the PV campaign – has painted a very different picture to the one claimed by PV spokespeople and various pro-PV talking heads in the media.

ComRes’ research contains a number of key findings – but one striking result is that across the country opinion against a new referendum significantly outweighs that in favour by a factor of almost two to one:


Strikingly, almost every region across the country showed more people wanting to respect the referendum result and avoid a rerun – even in Scotland, which in 2016 voted to remain. Only London bucks the trend – and that only by a whisker, 41% against the above polling statement and 38% agreeing.

There was little change in the overall picture when the question was changed to ask directly whether respondents were in favour of a new referendum including a ‘remain’ option.

Socio-economic groups

The two-to-one ratio – or even higher – also appears among the UK’s lower earners – 52% of people in the ‘DE’ social classification said that they were against a new referendum – compared to only 27% against – while on the question of respecting the referendum result and avoiding a new referendum, the ratio agreeing reached almost three to one.

Is Labour losing votes? No

But the most significant result was the table reflecting support for a new referendum by past vote and future voting intention in a general election:

Among those who voted Labour in 2017, those who would favour a new referendum rather than respecting the 2016 result narrowly outnumbered those who disagree with them – 41% vs 39%.

However, those numbers are virtually unchanged among those who still intend to vote Labour at the next general election – 43% vs 41%. In fact, the numbers in both categories increase slightly among those intending to vote Labour at the next general election – with a corresponding fall in the Tory-intention groups compared to 2017.

In other words, Labour is more popular now than in 2017 – reflected in ComRes overall voting intention result showing Labour three points ahead of the Tories.

Not only is Labour’s position on a new referendum not damaging Labour electorally – it’s boosting the party’s popularity and swelling voting intention beyond what we saw in the 2017 result.

Compare this to the PV-sponsored results and the constant claims by PV representatives and other media pundits, parroting as fact that Labour is haemorrhaging support because of Labour’s imagined – and entirely mythical – lack of clarity and Corbyn’s supposed ‘failure’ to back the PV campaign.

SKWAWKBOX comment:

We are being fed a narrative by those with an agenda that often has little to do with their superficial purpose – a narrative that wants to lead Labour away from its base and those who need it most.

That narrative falls apart under scrutiny and is not reflected in polling that is not sponsored by those pursuing that agenda.

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39 responses to “When poll not commissioned by PV campaign, ‘new ref’ results tell VERY different story

  1. It’s bizarre. After much thought and research I voted Leave (Lexit) yet the establishment has not ceased from telling me that I voted wrongly and I need a second vote to put it right.

  2. What are the chances of securing a GE now that the LibDems have stated that they will not support any future Votes of No Confidence until Jeremy gets off the fence and gives his clear support for a second referendum?

    • If it gets to the stage were no deal looks the only option they will support a VONC, Labour should wait now and make them all sweat.

  3. Callous PV supporters have descended to a new low today by making much of the Leave voters who have died since the EU poll. In relishing these deaths the class hatred of PV supporters against working class voters is all too apparent.

    But so too is the PV extraordinary powers of self deception, in supposing that “Nothing Has Changed” in the minds of electors since 2016 and that the views of Leave and Remain voters have somehow been held in suspended animation since 10pm on the big night.

    In fact as Skwarkbox shows here, a great many of the electorate actually believe in democracy and believe that, regardless of how they personally voted, once a referendum has taken place its result should be respected – and implemented.

    • I agree Danny. Even SKY news recently showed some fairness in interviewing young people who voted Remain, but now see it differently: including one, yesterday, who cited the crass perceptions and statements made by many PV supporters as part of why he believes in respecting the result, even though he initially voted remain.

    • Do you realise what utter tripe you’re uttering?

      Leaving aside the empty mouthings about democracy being the denial of informed choice, you first paragraph is just a dog’s dinner of shroud waving mixed with ‘prolier than thou’ pretension.

      I am one of those who will almost certainly have snuffed it by the time the full impact of Brexit has manifested itself – so I have no personal interest.

      But the fact is that the mickey-mouse imitation of a referendum (and I’ve never ‘respected’ Mickey Mouse), excluded many who will be most affected by the impact.The fact is that it was unduly weighted towards the old giffers like me who, unfortunately, will be dead before they have to suffer the consequences. In fact, far from being offended, I welcome the recognition that my vote should be balanced by a wider electorate who will actually be affected,

      That’s a simple fact, and I fear you’re the one who’s making the fact a fake issue of pretend sympathy.

      Try promoting real democracy looking to the future instead of claiming a pseudo constituency of the graveyard as a political cover.

    • Danny. What.a pathetic bottom feeding comment. These responses from Lexiters such as yourself get more and more desperate day by day.

  4. Good article. We are all being “sold a pup” by the bogus polling funded by the Mandelson/Blair “People’s Vote” scam , so uncritically trumpeted by all the MSM, but particularly by that lying middle class Remainer comic, The Guardian.

    • Pity you’re so out of tune with Party members (see poll).Must be tough to have to keep making up fantasies about the majority view.

      • RH, you are totally out of tune with society? And it’s Labour voters that put them in government not members, and that isn’t a dig a members. It’s a dig at you.

      • Oh! Now that’s a new take. The Party is irrelevant. I must tell Jeremy.

        And you’rein touch with ‘society’? I’m overawed with such omniscience.

        But sorry to piss on your pansies. 63% of ‘society’ didn’t vote for Brexit. And even more would now. So let’s ‘respect’ the real referendum result. Properly (rather than as a fake means of advancing the ERG’s wet dream, using ERG and sundry right wing groupies’ non-arguments).

      • You can make up what you want to support your argument. I find you to be excruciating, and if you knocked on my door I’d probably end up strangling you (not really) if you ask me that’s what Labour could do with out. Hence change of direction from Blairism

      • Sorry, but tantrums, foot stamping and throwing rattles out of the pram aren’t an argument.

        I do note your desire to shrink the Labour Party to a miniscule irrelevance to mould it into a fringe body that agrees with you and a few mates.

        Not a great electoral strategy – except for the Tories and their ERG fringe. Your definition of ‘Blarites’ now covers a good 80% of the membership – let alone the wider suport.

      • RH,
        The Labour Party vote share has grown, because of people like me. The membership has is growing because people are engaging in politics for the first time. There was no tantrum, just a fair characterisation of you.
        Just remember blairites we’re in control at the last election. Which they limited funds, holding back campaigning. This time round that will not happen and do you know what. Even more non voters will be reached compensating for blairites. Why because there’s actually something to vote for now they have gone. Swing voters are the losers strategy. If there not on board now they never will be.
        80% members are blairites? Get on Twitter more like 10%

  5. @SteveH
    It is an obvious bluff & the only people to take it seriously want it to be true

    • You may well be right, but none of us actually knows whether it is a bluff or not.

  6. Pretty thin and confused gruel when you get to those agree/disagree statements, which tend to confirm that there is a lot of confusion around.

    Note that – allegedly- a large majority (48%-16%) agree that “After Brexit, the UK should position itself as the lowest tax, business-friendliest country in Europe”

    Does this mean we should give up on left wing aspirations and just sign up to the ERG’s agenda?

    … and a majority reckon that a referendum should not have been called in the first place.

    On the substantive issues, there appears to be some majority now in favour of ‘Remain’, and the ESRC-funded finding of the Labour Party as a ‘Remain’ party is confirmed.

    I’m uncertain about the outcome of a new referendum, given that the Leave propaganda still dominates the MSM, but the ‘Leave’ case seems now to have become a ‘Leave well alone : in case opinion has changed – case”

  7. P.S. I’m not quite sure why a poll commissioned by ‘PV’ advocates is invalidated by that fact, whilst one commissioned by a proud member of the right wing propaganda press isn’t ….???

    Sauce for the goose …??? Or is that line of attack really just quotidian propaganda shit in itself – the very thing that the MSM is condemned for..

    • At least there appears to be a degree of consistency, the last poll that revealed ‘the ‘truth’ was commissioned by the Daily Mail

  8. Here’s the full data:

    https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/daily-express-voting-intention-and-brexit-poll-january-2019/

    I’m posting it because all over the media, people (particularly PV supporters) have been cherry-picking it and spinning it to make their preferred points.

    It shows that Brexit has at the very least awakened the lions from their slumber. The appetite for political and constitutional reform is now greater than it has ever been. The figures reveal that around 80% of people regardless of their voting intention or brexit stance now hold national politicians in contempt. The only aspect of the British state machinery that still commands respect is the monarchy. The demands that shine through here are mostly similar to those made by the yellow vests; achieving them will require taking to the streets – the Westminster circus show isn’t going to wind up any time soon without a massive push. The same applies to achieving a general election – the Tories will need to be dragged kicking and screaming before they agree to one.

    Allowing pipsqueaks like Vince Cable to call the shots isn’t going to help either. This poll shows his support going down.

    • Good post Mr L, it’s got a bit of gumption and spine. Cheers.

  9. I voted remain in the first referendum but if there is to be a “PV”/2nd referendum pushed by the likes of Chuka et al, I will vote leave. Many around me say the same thing.

    • … which might not sound like a sober assessment of the actuality of the decision. Which brings us back to the irrationality of the first mickey-mouse exercise in political self-indulgence.

      … and many I speak to *wouldn’t* say the same thing. So what?

  10. Those asking for a peoples vote have still not given any indication of what they wish to vote on.

    If Mrs May was really interested in the views of others she would have held a public consultation a long time ago when it was clear that the government were divided and had no clear vision for the way forward. There was plenty of opportunity to do this since the 2016 referendum. This is not the same as a referendum but the outcome could have shaped the basis of future relationship arrangements with the EU. The EU would have then had an indication of what it was the people wanted. The government did not choose this path as it is only interested in what is best for them and their supporters.

    The time for holding a consultation ran out a long time ago because of the governments actions.

    A re-run of the original referendum question would get us nowhere as the outcome could be similar to the original result. If the UK still voted to leave the EU we would still be in the same position. Remember that the government never expected the country to vote to leave first time around. The liberal democratic policy for the last election was to have a referendum on whether to accept the deal or remain in the EU. You cannot in a democratic country have a further referendum which excludes the original choice of leaving the EU (whether we like it or not) which was, (regardless of how marginal the result), the final not outcome of the original referendum.

    It is clear that the deal negotiated by Mrs May is unacceptable regardless of how everyone voted. A referendum on her deal would not get us anywhere.

    Clearly Mrs May is not moving from her lines and is just trying to pass the blame for her own failings onto others.

    A general election is and still remains the best option.

    The only other way to break the deadlock would be if the EU would agree to cross party talks directly with all the opposition party leaders. A draft of a new deal could be put forward as a result of those talks to parliament and then possibly to the people. Mrs May and the DUP would be opposed to such action as Mrs May is not prepared to move forward and the DUP just wish to leave without a deal and are enjoying pulling Mrs May’s strings. Clearly the timeframe is against such talks as Mrs May has been using delaying tactics every step of the way. Only the basis of a new deal could go out to a second referendum. As there is no alternative deal is it is inappropriate to have another referendum..

    This takes us back to the question as to what those campaigning for a peoples vote want to vote on. If they wanted a say on future relationship with the EU they should have been campaigning for a public consultation before the deal was negotiated. If the PM truly wanted the opinions of others who wished to contribute to the way forward she would have embraced a public consultation running parallel to the governments initial negotiations with the EU. She chose not to take this path.

  11. So you dismiss polls commissioned by People’s Vote but accept polls commissioned by the Daily Express. Skwawkbox is so full of shit on Brexit I assume you are lying now.

  12. Those supporting a second referendum do seem to be somewhat irritable and unaccepting of others points of view. Perhaps not the wisest strategy for winning a debate.

    • I think the irritability is simply with the reality denial of the contrary argument, and the pathetic resorting to yah-boo stuff about ‘centrists’ and ‘Blairites’ when the arguments are demolished.

      One problem is that the religious adherence to unsustainable positions is actually validating the right.

    • Thankyou for your temperate comment, it makes a change not to be accused of being a Blairite Troll (or similar)

      As your comment encompasses the vast majority of the Labour Party it would amount to an awful lot of irritable people.

      I’m find it difficult to see why anyone should just passively accept some of the un-evidenced assertions on here, particularly when those opinions are contradicted by the available evidence.

      We are not the ones who feel compelled to resort to silly playground insults every time we are challenged.

  13. 2 unconnected movements began in the late 1950s – Right Wing Neo-Liberal think tanks in the USA and one which was to become the EC in Europe which was led by social democrats.
    The latter was to counter the then perceived threat of the USSR, to promote capitalism in Europe, and to give Europe a stronger voice on the World stage though the dollar was soon to dominate once the UK joined and acted as a Trojan Horse for the USA and perhaps led to the desire from some for the Euro?
    But Neo-Liberalism was to plant seeds in the Callagahan Labour Govt in the 1970s then captured the Tories with Thatcherism (Reaganism in the USA) then captured New Labour then via Blairism Neo-Liberalism captured Scotland (and the SNP stole Old Labours clothes) then Blairism influenced Labour parties in Europe then Neo-Liberalism captured the EC.
    With the collapse of the USSR and its satellites we then had the shock labour supply of Eastern Europe etc. which had ceded to the EC.
    For many migrants there was the pull of better wages but in some countries with vile Right Wing Govts (like Poland) where benefits are stopped after so many months for the unemployed there was also a push and Bulgaria for example is expected to have lost 50% of its population by 2020.
    So in this context I wasn’t really that bothered about remain of leave, my concern was to try to break the Neo-Liberal chain – via left partners in the EC (I reluctantly voted Remain) or via independent left wing nation states?
    But my central question which perhaps many fail to pose is how can we build a left wing democratic socialist society in the UK as an example to the World?
    I believe we need socialist analysis and I accept the referendum result (it was not the wrong people and as Brecht once said mockingly to vote losers “you will have to find another public!”).
    Perhaps we need with Brexit the good old-fashioned socialist planning of the democratic control of labour and capital supply and our policy would mean we could take skilled and unskilled workers we needed from any country in the World.
    We should also bring back migration adjustment funds for councils (cut by the Tories and Lib Dems).
    But also try to trade unionise migrant workers – I saw Jeremy Corbyn speak last week and he made a brilliant point; in the 1900s quite a large number of Lithuanian Jews fled pogroms in that country and ended up working in the coalfields in Scotland but I believe they were being used by unscrupulous coal employers to undercut wages and tensions were developing between them and the local population.
    So what did Kier Hardie do?
    Join in the public attacks on them?
    No he got them to join the miners union and built community solidarity!
    It has in my view to be Brexit so let’s make if left wing democratic socialist as an example to the diverse citizens of the World!

  14. A few more fun facts from the same opinion poll:
    How would you vote if a Referendum to stay in the EU or to leave were held tomorrow: Remain 44% Leave 40% (Table 37)
    I regret David Cameron’s decision to call the 2016 EU Referendum: Agree 47% Disagree 34% (Table 44)
    From those responses it seems to me that the much discussed main finding is mostly suggesting that people are fed up with the issue, think the referendum was a bad idea and now just want it all to stop (even though they would rather remain).
    At least HM isn’t going to be out of a job in the near future: Replacing the Queen and Monarchy with an elected President: Support 16% Oppose 66% (Table 47)

  15. Pingback: PRO-EU group admits call for new referendum would cost Labour next GE | The SKWAWKBOX·

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