As the SKWAWKBOX published last night, the latest poll by Survation, the only polling company to correctly predict the 2017 general election result, gives Labour a three-point lead over the Tories – and shows that the party would lose vote share if it were to lead calls for a new referendum.
A great piece of work this morning by the excellent Matt Thomas has put those results into an easily-comprehensible form by showing how the parliamentary seats would work out in a general election in scenarios where Labour does not call for a so-called “people’s vote” and if it did.
The results are clear:
If Labour’s leadership calls for another referendum, the only beneficiaries are the Tories – and those clamouring loudly for Labour to do so would have a continuing hung parliament and a default hard Brexit, while our vulnerable would continue to suffer hideously under Tory policies.
By contrast, Labour’s current strategy sees Labour the largest party and in a position to form a strong coalition government – and that’s without the expected Labour surge under the fairer media handling that prevails during a general election campaign.
These simple numbers demolish the loud centrist claims – treated as fact by many in the media – that Labour is ignoring the people by refusing to bow to centrist pressure to come out for a new referendum now. Now now now!
So of course, the same media and centrists are entirely ignoring the polling or even, in the odd brave case, positively stating the poll should be ignored.
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