The Establishment media, although forced to give a nod to the likelihood of Theresa May’s dismal Brexit ‘deal’ being defeated in Parliament in a couple of weeks, has been resolutely ignoring the even more significant consequences of the DUP’s abandonment of their ‘confidence and supply’ deal with the Tories: the prospect of a vote of no confidence in May’s government succeeding.
A vote that would require only a simple majority in the Commons, not the two thirds usually claimed by the BBC and other ‘mainstream’ platforms.
The intensity of the DUP’s instransigent resistance to May’s excuse for a deal led to it not only abstaining in key Budget votes last week but actively voting against the Tories. So dangerous is this to the government in terms of the ‘confidence’ implications – only twice in UK history has a government been unable to pass its Budget unchanged and in both cases the government fell when it lost the vote – that the Tories immediately surrendered to remaining opposition amendments rather than risk contesting them.
And that resistance was today shown as no less determined – if anything, it has intensified, with DUP leader Arlene Foster, leading MP Nigel Dodds and others all underlining their absolute refusal to accept the deal at the party’s conference in Northern Ireland today:
SKWAWKBOX comment:
The DUP’s determination that May will not succeed in her attempt to bind Northern Ireland to a special status with the EU that is separate to that of Britain has been demonstrated to be complete enough for them to risk bringing down the government.
The determination of Tory ‘Brexit ultras’ not to have the UK remain within a UK-wide customs union give Theresa May no alternative option that will be less politically damaging to her and her party.
Both of them combined put the possibility of a successful no-confidence vote firmly on the menu. Labour must not hesitate to take the opportunity.
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“The DUP’s determination that May will not succeed in her attempt to bind Northern Ireland to a special status with the EU that is separate to that of Britain has been demonstrated to be complete enough for them to risk bringing down the government…Both of them combined put the possibility of a successful no-confidence vote firmly on the menu. Labour must not hesitate to take the opportunity.”
The DUP voting down May’s deal and the DUP supporting a no confidence motion to actively bring down May’s government are two very different things.
The second makes it much more likely that someone akin to kryptonite for them will be handed the keys to No. 10, which would almost certainly result in their ability to hold the UK government over a barrel disappearing in a flash.
This kind of fantasy talk is as delusional as much that comes out of the mouths of the Brexit ultras. You can do better, Skwawkbox.
“The DUP voting down May’s deal and the DUP supporting a no confidence motion to actively bring down May’s government are two very different things.”
Well, no. They really are not.
If the deal does not pass on the first attempt, it will become a confidence matter, even if it isn’t first time out.
And what the DUP is faced with is this: Corbyn has a long term personal wish to see a united Ireland. May is doing something right now that will make a united Ireland more likely, which Corbyn opposes.
Faced with that choice, it might be unpalatable for the DUP, but Labour is the lesser of two, in their mind, evils.
In your dreams, alas.
You are right about Corbyn’s long term support for a united Ireland; one probably supported by much of today’s Labour party.
But you misunderstand the DUP.
While Northern Ireland voted to remain, a very large proportion of DUP supporters voted to leave.
Whatever they think of Mrs May’s incompetence, they agree with HER long term aim, which is Brexit, preferable with no deal.
And they loathe Corbyn and labour with a vehemence that makes Mrs May look – to them – like a saint who has made a small error of judgement.
The DUP are soulmates with the tories, and when the chips are down, they’ll support the tories. Every. Single. Time.
Don’t be misled by recent votes on trivial matters (relatively speaking); mere politics.
‘This kind of fantasy talk is as delusional…’ Agreed.
Actually, there are 2 REAL possibilities, which all lead to NO-DEAL BREXIT, given the time remaining:
1) Vote of no-confidence on the Prime Minister by Conservative Party MPs.
2) Voting against the BREXIT deal in Parliament
The first possibility will come about when the majority of Conservative Party MPs who are not satisfied with the deal – both remainers and leavers – express no-confidence in their leader. This will trigger a leadership contest, a process that might take at least two months to complete at the minimum – realistically 4-months, counting out December and January because of Christmas and New Year Holidays. That’s when the Conservatives will have a leader either more palatable to the DUP (Boris Johnson?) who will command their respect, or a pro-remain leader who will command respect of our Blairite faction and the Liberal Democrats. Either way, this leader will never enjoy the confidence of both factions of the Conservative MPs and will have to rely on other parties to prop him/her up. There will be too short a time to re-negotiate a new/amended deal before the end of March deadline, short of capitulating to the EU demands by the Europhile leader.
The second possibility will come about when – not if – the Withdrawal Bill is defeated in Parliament. Labour front bench has got its own version of amendments it will make to the bill, so does its Blairite faction, so does the LibDems and the SNPs, both amendments which are not compatible with each other, resulting in the defeat of both.
As an aside, how does the Prime Minister in her letter to the nation ask the people to get ‘…behind this deal’ without offering a referendum on the deal? Not that the referendum will stop a No-Deal Brexit, given the logistics required to run one, but it might pressure MPs to eventually vote for the deal in Parliament if the majority of the people have indicated that they back it.
So as things stand now, we are heading for a NO-DEAL BREXIT. The government should start preparing for that certain outcome.
I totally agree with Skwakbox, that Labour should not miss this opportunity for the general election. My impression that the medias still try to muddle up with the fact from what Foster and Boris said and appear support PM. Their job is to deliver truely what took place in the conference yet my impression is the medias still try to manipulate to their own way. Foster commented for favour Corbyn not Boris but Boris emphasised that May’s deal will only give UK disadvantage that has to be dismantled. Even he as hard liner of Brexiteer that Britain would better off with remain. Media has to deliver the facts not manipulate nation that is their job that would expect and that would win respect from people.
Surprise, surprise Tony Blair reveals a remarkable lack of self awareness.
Marr / Blair interview 25/11/18
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/nov/25/brexit-eu-summit-deal-theresa-may-leaders-meet-for-emergency-summit-to-sign-off-uks-withdrawal-agreement-politics-live?page=with:block-5bfa7b87e4b045afb44236ce#block-5bfa7b87e4b045afb44236ce
He had plenty of praise for may!
I find it perverse that we are somehow expected to admire Theresa May when derision would be a far more logical response to someone who is desperately clinging onto power when they are self evidently just not up-to the job.