Survation’s huge poll puts Corbyn in reach of Downing Street

Polling company Survation has a reputation for accuracy after it was the only polling company – mocked for it at the time – to correctly predict the outcome of last year’s general election.

The company has now conducted a huge poll of Westminster voting intention among UK voters – with a sample size (number of people polled) of 20,090 people: ten or twenty times the size of a typical Westminster poll, dramatically tightening the poll’s accuracy, its ‘margin of error’.

The results put Labour ahead of the Tories, with a tweet by the pollsters underlining the significance of the difference in sample size:

surv summ

Labour’s lead of 1% may appear slim, but Survation combined the results with recent Scotland-only polling – and the picture is remarkable:

surv wm2

On current polling, the Tories would lost thirty-two seats, with Labour gaining a net twenty-six. The spread of votes across other parties puts a Labour-led coalition within easy reach of Number 10.

Survation’s result is all the more striking because it comes in the midst of relentlessly negative mainstream media coverage even worse than the kind that, before the 2017 election, had Labour polling over twenty points behind – and the less biased coverage required by the general election period saw a huge Labour surge.

SKWAWKBOX comment:

The scale of this poll and its results will have shaken the government and its supporters. Cue a redoubling of smears. especially with the Tories floundering yet again over Brexit.


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  1. Might the Tories see this as tilting the balance in favour of another snap election? I almost hope not.
    An election now might mean a much smaller Labour majority than the probable landslide we’d see after the disastrous brexit that looks ever more likely.

  2. Smears already started in the Indy , ” Corbyn says Brexit can’t be stopped ” and trying to make out that he has somehow suddenly changed Labours position on Brexit from staying to leaving ( a.k.a he’s a liar and untrustworthy)
    What utter shit on the Indy , it’s always been very clear Labour supports the referendum and will work very hard to protect the working class rights etc etc .Just bollocks as usual , oh and no mention of this poll either , well colour me surprised !

    1. “it’s always been very clear Labour supports the referendum”

      Depends what you mean. Labour supporters don’t rate the referendum very highly.

      … and if you support the last abortion of a referendum – with it’s non-support for Brexit – why not have another to clarify things. Sauce for the goose …

  3. Tory voters are dying at a rate of 500000 a year as only the very old vote Tory in substantial numbers. If the next general election is in 2022 they will lose 2 million votes, plus the fact young voters coming in to voting age tend to back back Labour. This should ensure a landslide victory in 2022!

    1. Yes, and there are still some problems with the Labour party such as:

      1. Some truly appalling MPs

      2. The Labour party still supports nuclear weapons.

      Hopefully, these things can be sorted out by the time of the next general election.

  4. I don’t care who it is, supposedly in the lead; or who’s telling us. I’ll believe it ONLY when Corbyn’s elected PM.

    I remember people falling over themselves to laud the utterly woeful vincent cable as: ‘The only one to predict the financial crash’ all those years ago.

    …Well maybe he was – Didn’t stop him from being a right worse-than-useless twunt the rest of the time (Both before – and especially after, when he became a cabinet minister).

    Being right once doesn’t make someone infallible. Curtice might’ve been as near as dammit in the last election; doesn’t make him right, or some sort of authority, now.

  5. A bit lazy to print “38 seats of a majority” instead of “38 seats (off or short of) an outright majority of 326” which must be what they meant.

  6. We will never leave the EU – the Globalist ‘Big Boys’ will never allow it. By hook; by crook, by any means possible it will be stopped. The end game process is now more easily observed (i) appoint a PM who doesn’t want to Leave as chief negotiator, (ii) the negotiations are so badly done we will need another Referendum to sort it out. MSM has laid the foundations & manufactured consent, unlike in 2016 when Cameron’s hubris led to his resignation. MSM will not make the same mistake again. Welcome to the Hotel California.

      1. Really? See Channel 4 ‘What the Nation Really Thinks’ aka ‘What Channel 4 Thinks the Nation Should Think’. Every major Political Party; 75% MPs; CBI; Universities (all major institutions) et al campaign to Remain. MSM sets our political agenda, which is ‘When can we have a 2nd Referendum? Maybot claims ‘there will be no 2nd Referendum’, which must give you complete reassurance knowing how you can tell when a politician tells lies. No alternative mainstream representation in this political debate?

  7. Actually, the key finding of that poll is that the two parties are neck and neck. Cheering is a bit premature after the disasters inflicted by the Tories have still not eroded their support to a greater degree.

    … and no, this isn’t another ‘if it wasn’t for Corbyn’ Santa Claus wish – just a statement of the hard reality of the current state of division in the country.

    But opportunity for a smile, I guess.

  8. Think something will happen fairly soon and it’s going to affect people badly. Apart from brexit there is the awful UC Think they are rolling it out very slowly. Camerons mantra on that is you work and you work and you work. Don’t think hardworking people who will be a lot worse off under UC are going to want to vote for the tories. I think Labour will get a landslide just not yet. Soon THOUGH. Anyone notici g a shift in the MSM

  9. Hats off to Corbyn for incurring the wrath of the Blairites by opposing another EU referendum!

    1. … or hats on for giving the b*stards credibility!.. and doing a Strictly solely on the back foot.

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