Polling company Survation has a reputation for accuracy after it was the only polling company – mocked for it at the time – to correctly predict the outcome of last year’s general election.
The company has now conducted a huge poll of Westminster voting intention among UK voters – with a sample size (number of people polled) of 20,090 people: ten or twenty times the size of a typical Westminster poll, dramatically tightening the poll’s accuracy, its ‘margin of error’.
The results put Labour ahead of the Tories, with a tweet by the pollsters underlining the significance of the difference in sample size:
Labour’s lead of 1% may appear slim, but Survation combined the results with recent Scotland-only polling – and the picture is remarkable:
On current polling, the Tories would lost thirty-two seats, with Labour gaining a net twenty-six. The spread of votes across other parties puts a Labour-led coalition within easy reach of Number 10.
Survation’s result is all the more striking because it comes in the midst of relentlessly negative mainstream media coverage even worse than the kind that, before the 2017 election, had Labour polling over twenty points behind – and the less biased coverage required by the general election period saw a huge Labour surge.
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