Labour gains average 16% in 3 by-elections as Tories lose average 19%

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In a worrying sign for the Tories, in the three by-elections that took place on Thursday night, Labour made huge gains averaging 16.3% across the three seats – while the Tories at the same time made an even bigger average loss of 18.5%:


Significantly, Labour gained in all three elections, while the Tories lost in all three.

In YouGov’s latest Westminster voting intention polling, Labour made a net gain of three percent on the Tories, in spite of relentlessly negative ‘MSM’ coverage of the Labour Party – but it appears YouGov may have underestimated.

Survation, the most accurate pollster at the 2017 General Election, has not issued new UK-wide Westminster polling since it showed Labour with a remarkable seven-point lead a month ago.

But if Labour can do anywhere near as well across England and Wales in next month’s local elections as Thursday night’s results suggest, the Tories were right to be worried and their smears – even more desperate than usual – of the last few months make perfect sense as the only option available to a politically bankrupt party.

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  1. These results are certainly useful ammunition against the “unelectable Corbyn” line, but note that in two cases the swings are the result of independents standing down (and UKIP’s implosion in the third).

    1. They’re a single issue party now. With ratings on the floor, any gain looks incredible. They also benefit by not being attacked by the media on a daily basis too…

  2. “Significantly, Labour gained in all three elections, while the Tories lost in all three.”

    Unfortunately, your analysis is a little flawed here.

    Labour gained support in the last two of these seats because it had not previously contested them. It could hardly lose support, could it?

  3. The last poster is, of course, correct. But to me the nice thing here is that these last two are rural seats in deep blue territory that we probably have not contested since the mid 50’s.

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