Labour slashes Tory lead by a further FIVE points in two days

As the SKWAWKBOX covered on Thursday, a single week of General Election campaigning – with Corbyn taking the streets by storm and Theresa May hiding in empty factories or speaking to a handful of acolytes in strictly stage-managed settings – saw the Tories’ polling lead over Labour fall by a huge eight points.

Today a new poll, announced just minutes ago by Britain Elects, shows a further fall – from 16 percentage points to 11 – in just two days:

voting intention 290417.png

Clearly the voting public is starting to recognise in Corbyn an authentic Prime Minister in waiting when they see one – and to see through Theresa May’s media-spun ’emperor’s new clothes’ to the unfit, unelected has-been behind the spin.

It seems all the momentum is Corbyn’s and Labour’s.

The battle is just beginning, but it’s becoming clearer every day just why Theresa May’s keepers are keeping her out of the public view as much as they can get away with – and when she has to appear, she’s only allowed in the most carefully-controlled and quarantined settings.

Corbyn looks the real deal and as he said today in his London speech, getting out the vote . especially among younger voters – is vital. So get out the word so people can see what’s happening and be inspired to turn out.

They won’t see it on the BBC.

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  1. Ed Milliband’s Labour got 31% and whilst lead may have narrowed have to compare average of polls. Campaigning not really in full swing yet from Conservatves in particular and also Lib Dems. Chances of Corbyn being PM somewhat remote and he really needs to be replaced at some point. What ever qualities he has not in field of leadership and has moved party in wrong direction,.

  2. Reblogged this on Britain Isn't Eating and commented:
    #LabourLandslide is on the cards in 5 weeks time and I’m looking forward to the wry smile Corbyn shows May across the despatch box with the Tories vying for spaces with the Libdems and the SNPS. Man, those benches are going to take some strain!

  3. Hang on a sec, the local elections are next Thursday and if they go badly for Labour that could hold up any recovery they may have for June 8.

  4. What scares me? The fact that no mandate has been aired at all. She’ll be doing whatever she wants to this country & us. Think on that

  5. Their latest polling average update has us twenty points behind.

    I really don’t see the point of this Panglossian approach. All the polls are bad.They may narrow – they may even be a little inaccurate, but they are bad. None of the polls that failed to predict the results of recent elections have been inaccurate by anything close to twenty points.

    If the polls don’t improve this election will almost certainly be a disappointment – pretending otherwise does none of us any favours.

    I never voted for Corbyn beleiving he was likely to win an election anytime soon – I didn’t believe any of the candidates was likely to do so and neither fid anyone else at the time. It was simply time to draw a line in the sand in front of the Progress cuckoos.

    Corbyn is about laying the groundwork – rolling back the Blairites de facto purge of the Left, so that in future there are heavyweight candidates of the Left in powerful positions once more and preventing a future Progress-like neoliberal coup from ever happening again.

    The problem with what seems to me to be growing and alarming self-delusion is that it runs the risk of inadvertently opening the door for Progress is the result is bad. It’s similar to a football manager with the lowest budget in his division, poor facilities and loads of injuries constantly telling everyone he’s going to win the League. When he doesn’t the raised expectations come back to bite him, as the fans round on him as a failure and the faction who never wanted him in the first place (Progress in Corbyn’s case) claim vindication.

    He would be far better off doing his best, telling everyone he is doing his best and that he still thinks they can have a good season despite the challenges, but that he realises the challenges are there and the most important thing is to lay the foundations for the future success he knows will come.

    If the cheerleading turns out to be wrong, you can be sure Progress will make us own it. Far better to be realistic and prepare for the fight that may be ahead – for example by making sure we hammer home the message that Progress would not have done any better.

    1. PAUL

      Their average is now meaningless, as the latest three polls published show the lead shrinking considerably, so there is a trend our way at the very least starting-you don’t get three outliers in a row, to quote their language.

      I don’t like making assumptions, but let’s assume they are on 44% we are on 30. If we can reduce that lead by 2% a week for the next 4 weeks, then the situation would be 40-34, more or less the same as in GE 2015 result, just 3% each higher. All it needs is us to gain 1 point, them to lose 1, nothing as dramatic as this week.

      And the polls a week before the actual GE were all 5-6% out at least from what transpired on the night.

      And if you were right about 10% total error only, that could still, on my assumptions above, bring us on June 9th to 39% plays 35% or 40-36. And no overall majority.

      Yes, it could all go back the other way, but I am genuinely surprised, if those initial polls were correct, that we’ve recovered as much ground as we may have done that quickly.

      1. Check the betting. If I was asked at this stage I would say that I was pro May and anti Corbyn and head down to the bookies while getting great odds. Then 2 weeks before the election say the opposite so the “swing to Labour” becomes unstoppable. We were conned over Brexit, it is possible this is revenge. Fingers crossed.

  6. The bad news on that Torygraph-commissioned poll-May’s allegedly ahead in all bar 2 UK regions, including London.

    The good news, if we assume 2000 respondents in total & 400 of those from London, then the 400 represent just 0.00007% of London’s total electorate. So that is even less likely to be representative than the 0.0005% 2000 represents of the entire UK’s electorate.

    And, one to share with you all from yore:

    Another one vide polling reliability was a local survey by the local rag in Thatcher’s constituency just before GE1987. 730 people interviewed out of an electorate of 57,000, which represented a whole 1.28% of the Finchley & Golders Green electorate.

    Poll predicted Thatcher would lose by 2-3,000. She won by nearly 9,000.

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