A poll by ITV’s This Morning asked viewers which party leader they would prefer to see as Prime Minister. The result was remarkable:
Over 165,000 people participated – and more than two-thirds chose Corbyn. Theresa May’s share of the vote was far less than a third of what Corbyn achieved.
Naysayers will say that the poll was not ‘scientific’. That’s true. But then, the methodology of official polls is rarely disclosed properly and vastly differing results suggest that those may not be too scientific either. It’s also possible, of course, that Corbyn supporters are simply more motivated to call or go online to cast their vote and influence the result – but again, that’s hardly a negative.
One thing that is certain, however, is that the result in no way supports or aligns with the prevailing punditry that claims the result of the General Election is a foregone conclusion or that Jeremy Corbyn cannot appeal to the wider electorate.
In fact, given the evidence of the first week of campaigning, those claims are looking ever more desperate. Perhaps even Canute-like in their determination to keep pushing a worldview in which the Prime Minister’s disappearance from public view is touted as ‘strategy‘ and Corbyn’s energy, huge reception and evident ease in every public appearance are written off as meaningless.
Maybe, just maybe, This Morning viewers are more dialled in to the zeitgeist of this General Election than those whose appearance fees depend on them toeing a particular ‘expert’ line.
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Theresa May is the Hillary Clinton of British politics.
The more people see and hear her, the more they realise what a totally flawed and unelectable candidate she is.
The only way the Tories could win is by keeping her away from the electorate for the entire election, and that isn’t a feasible option.
The Tory campaign is in danger of fast becoming the worst and most absurd campaign ever run in the history of British politics.
I wonder whether even the main polls have been rigged so far ..and then there is the spending and the count to come !!!
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Reblogged this on michaelsnaith.
The majority of viewers are likely unemployed or female. Two areas where Corbyn does well. Nevertheless that is hugely encouraging.
I’m not a veiwer of this morning nor am i unemployed or a woman but i voted on this as it was shared widely on Facebook
except that you could also vote online so appeal to people who can use a computer – and that could be male or female employed or unemployed disabled or retired gay straight etc – It could just be that Corbyn and the Labour Party under his leadership appeals to the many people that have been impoverished and hurt by the Tory Party (and previous lib dem/tory coalition)
Why do you think the article is careful not to overclaim?
The poll is such an outlier that it would be foolish to give it more credence than the majority, without corroborating polls. The worrying thing regarding the preponderantly poor Opinion polls is that apparently polls historically underestimate the Tories’ support.
Again, read the article and what it actually says.
Here is a left-wing blogger with knowledge of statistics explaining why this poll is flawed and the danger of dismissing the bulk of polls.
http://guerillawire.org/politics/how-opinion-polling-works/
If you read the article, Paul, you’ll see that it’s caveated with all the reasons why it shouldn’t be overclaimed – and the article doesn’t overclaim its significance.
Reblogged this on Sid's Blog and commented:
A non-scientific poll
How dare they!
Scientific polls have been so reliable!
Most polls have been accurate within an acceptable margin of error. They have only been problematical in very close races – the idea that they’ve missed stunning upsets is a myth. None of them have been inaccurate by anywhere close to the 20+% that we are trailing by in all the polls with a systematic sample.
It’s not impossible that the polls will narrow, but if the the election was held today we are fooling ourselves to believe that the polls are so inaccurate that we could hope to win.
But if the results are meddled with and the outcome rigged, that’s where it all goes wrong and the pollsters end up looking foolish. As in the May #GE2015.
Is there a coup d’état taking place by the media? This result plus another I have seen seem to show a different picture “official” polls! See:
https://thepoliticalanalyzer.com/2017/04/18/poll-who-do-you-want-to-be-the-next-prime-minister/#pd_a_9726677#pd_a_9726677
This is getting really worrying. Telling ourselves comforting myths is not going to help the long-term cause of keeping the Party out of the hands of the neoliberals
This poll is as useless as the ITV poll. There is no way an online/self-selecting poll with no safeguards or any possibility of sampling to reflect a microcosm of the electorate can accurately reflect the voting intentions of the public.
The only thing we can probably glean from the online polls is the intensity to which the respective leaders are supported by their own people. For example I suspect those who support JC are in general a lot more enthusiastic about him than potential Tory voters are about May. As a result we are motivated to respond to online polls and so on.
Unfortunately votes aren’t counted like that. A lukewarm X next to May’s name counts the same as a passionate X next to JCs.
@ Wirral.
The polls in that GE were not 20% out – which is how wrong they’d need to be to give JC a chance of winning.
This article sums it up. Polling is an inexact science and sometimes deeply flawed – but not so flawed as to be 20%+ out.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/25/dirty-little-secret-opinion-polls-general-election-why-wrong
We need to hope the polls narrow rather than deluding ourselves that they are wrong to an unprecedented degree.
I didn’t say 20% out. That was you. I personally don’t delude myself. There is evidence, gathered over 23 months to suggest that the GE2015 was rigged as regards postal voting and/or unlawfully declared … at hashtag #VotegateUK – hence the memorable sight of pollsters / pundits with egg on their faces.
Reblogged this on perfectlyfadeddelusions.
Reblogged this on Politics and Insights and commented:
Two polls on Twitter asking people who they intend voting for, posted by a Conservative, show Labour at 64% and the Conservatives at 28%.
Reblogged this on wgrovedotnet.
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