Analysis Breaking

Northern Ireland moves closer to re-unification as poll suggests majority now favour it

But will a corrupt and unprincipled Tory government honour the requirement of the GFA when Johnson has already shown contempt for the agreement and the peace that depends on it?

A new poll puts pressure on the Tory government to call a re-unification referendum in Northern Ireland. The poll suggests that a majority of people in Northern Ireland – 51% – now favour leaving the UK and unity with the Republic:

The terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA) state that the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland must call a referendum,

if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.

Some in the UK have tried to misrepresent recent loyalist riots in Belfast as a response to Brexit – nonsense when many loyalists also supported Brexit. In reality, however, Northern Ireland insiders have said all along that the violence was an attempt by some who want to remain part of the UK to force the UK government to clamp down because they knew that the recent census would reveal a majority of Roman Catholics – and therefore more likely republican – triggering the GFA referendum provisions.

This poll suggests that the balance has shifted anyway. But will a notoriously corrupt and unprincipled Tory government, which has already shown contempt for the GFA and for peace, honour the terms of the Agreement?

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44 comments

    1. Full BBC report a bit more nuanced but the sands are shifting. The principle of self determination is a good one and if BoJo the clown ever gets Brexit properly sorted (the arrangements for NI at the moment are a chaotic disgrace) a referendum in a few years time could be interesting.

    2. labrebisgalloise – The two pie charts (the one above and the one in the BBC report) show answers to two different questions. One is about whether opinions have changed on the constitutional position of NI. The other is how people would vote if a referendum was held tomorrow. Maybe 4% who would vote to stay in the UK tomorrow would look favourably on leaving at some point in the future.

    3. Indeed the diagram where Lucid Talk summarise their results at link I just gave seems to show a small majority for UK Remain.

  1. If unification does become a distinct possibility, the ‘Zionists’ in NI will become even more militant, as did the ”Zionists’ in South Africa and Palestine. They all have the same colonialist mentality.

    1. Re Jack T, see D. Akenson, God’s People’s: covenant and land in South Africa, Israel and Ulster (1992).

      1. Yes, quite!
        1. Only there is no God or at least if there is it has not made itself known to insignificant speck of dust that our Galaxy is, never mind our Planet/Species!
        2 Most Zionists by a massive proportion are Atheists who don’t believe in god!
        The Arrogance of that belief is just outstanding, I think we”ll find “god’s chosen people from Ethiopia and up to the Levant” Not Bloody Europe Most Europeans have more Levant/Semite Gene Admixture than Most European Zionists! Like Netanyahu himself he is of Spanish Stock, and the tiniest dollop of Levant admixture somewhere along the centuries of his Spanish Heritage!
        No One is Chosen, No One is Special, We as all ONE AND THE SAME THING! Homo Sapiens, an Ape! We are just an Ape, a Mammal, which means we are nothing more than a High Protein snack for an Animal Larger and Stronger than we are! Walking, Self Preserving Food! For Lions, Tigers, Sharks, Crocodiles etc, etc
        BUT! if there is a god, The stupid Bastard gave us Speech, to warn each other of the Lions, Tigers, Sharks, Crocodiles etc, etc and now we are 8.7 Billion Humans Trashing the Planet as fast as we can! Why do we want to go to The Moon and Mars, so that we can trash them with Plastic, Chemicals, Radioactivity, etc, etc! And we ask ‘I wonder if there is life out there’ they probably just flew past and said ‘JFC look at the state of that shithole’ we’ll wait to the next inhabited Planet!
        Went a bit off topic, I think my brain just malfunctioned for a bit, or maybe function for the first time ever! :):):):):) Bah! Who cares apart from my love SteveH! x

      2. There was a clip on BBC news earlier of someone slapping a ultra authodox Jew. The previous remark by the news reader said Arabs have been attacking Jews. In fact the person who slapped the ultra authodox Jew is more likely to have been a Zionist who hate the ultra authodox for refusing to join the Israeli army. I have ultra authodox friends who left Israel because of antiSemitism from Zionists.

      3. Just imagine the Raw Feelings the other British Minorities who faced daily verbal/physical/property damage/etc REAL Racism, REPORTED at the POLICE STATION NOT TWITTER! During 2015 to 2020 when we all knew it was BS and Political 1CPS Prosecution out of 550K = 0.00017%! I wonder how many CPS Prosecutions for Racism between 2015 to 2020, It’s hard to blame them, sadly it is “The Jews who look like Jews” who will get hurt for the despicable behaviour of the Zionists.
        Jews REALLY have to stop allowing the Zionists to hide behind them, they should stand up and be vocal about it, they will just be abused like this for an eternity if they do nothing!

    2. Screw the Zionists, they are all like Israel, the Chihuahua Bitch of The USA, yap, yap, yapping, believing themselves to be Rottweilers! As soon as the shit hits the fan they screech away, tail under arse crying for their America!
      However America like Britain are just flexing their ‘plastic muscle suits’, at the New Economies of Russia, China and Iran, but underneath they are just little old men of ancient Colonial, Piracy, Plundering, Murdering, Dirty, Dirty Old Economy Money! We, The People are soon to be Cash Cow The City, gone bust! The “Holy Grail” of International Old Money Laundering!

      I also worry that We The People are going to be on the wrong side of ‘BoJo Wannabe Churchill’ fucking about with Putin!
      Why do these morons not understand we are not the Powers we used to be! We need to be building Peaceful Relationships and find solutions to problems, create the best trade deals, not create bloody wars, what do we have a few clapped out rust-bucket subs, a couple of carriers, one coast guard. Some Jets, a few underpaid, overworked, underappreciated soldiers, etc!
      How did we get to this 1930s crap again!

      How is that going to fair for Diplomatic Relationships between us and a United Ireland!? Or indeed us and The Republic of Wales, The Republic of Scotland and The Republic of United Ireland!? What will we have in little England!? The City Gone Bust! Highest rate of Poverty, us scrapping in the mud for potatoes!
      Relationships so raw globally that no one wants to deal with us, because we still think we can waltz in and force our demands on anyone we want to, whatever it may be, well we don’t but Wannabe Churchill certainly does!
      I think I want to apply to the Icelandic Government to be the Caretaker on that little Island with one house on it!
      I don’t think that I like my species much!

      1. Kingdom of Northumbria
        On a serious note if Scotland, Wales and Ireland leave then its back to the drawing board

      2. London, for that’s all there is, hasn’t the brains or humility to accept that the empire of land and influence has been left to pat the bulldog like a norwegian blue. Legitimate wealth has run off to greet the dawn and Big Daddy, fighting like a Roman is seeing their society failing and the fringes revolt. Best wishes and luck to Ireland but Scotland and Wales don’t have a realistic hope of improving their present lifestyle if they leave.

      3. Ireland is an old wrong that needs to be put right
        Scotland and Wales are heart says out head says in

      4. It would be good if that day comes that we can maintain freedom of movement and right to work, between each other, even if EU regs require Passport ID controls.It would be tremendously sad to imagine you can’t pack up and go to The Shetlands, Skye, Edinburgh, Swansea, Bala, etc, etc and lay down your hat! Very, Very Sad indeed,
        Imagine a World without Borders!
        Imagine a World of REAL Peace, where ever you went you were welcomed and invited to stay, helped to build a house and helped to start something the community has a shortage for! Nobody sells, everyone gives and receives equally and life is simple, people spend free tome carving gifts, making clothing, furniture, etc, etc, Sadly Homo Sapiens are a Volatile, Vicious Ape just like cousin Chimpanzee!
        I wish we were more Bonobo! Bonobo bonk after every altercation, shock, injury, etc no wonder they are so laid back, no pun! :):):):)

      5. Don’t worry. From now on you can be the president of wherever USA wants. I’ve got my eye on Andorra.

      6. I won’t settle for anything less than the Communist Leader of The World. 😉
        It will be a wonderfully Peaceful, Equal and Just Planet, No Borders, No Weapons, All Religions Restricted to 18+ and All Writings, Teachings, Books, etc banned from Public. Once it’s fine tuned leaders will be elected, but bound to the Peace, Equality and Justice Manifesto, Any changes can only be made by Global Voting.
        Never must The Government be “in charge” of the decision making if the people again. The Government must be, AS THEY ARE MEANT TO BE, Civil Servants at the service of The People.
        No Privately owned anything will exist any Corporation, Social Media/Internet Company will be Open Sourced and Public Ownership. Simple living and with no money Capital will be abolished! Your birth right will be an equal proportion of everything that exists.
        *Okay so I went off on one a bit but deleted it in fear of numbing your brain* :):):) *Probably already did!*
        All we need is to say NO MORE! And the world can be in the hands of The People! How sad it is to see Brothers and Sisters kneeing and shooting each other to death by the command of the 1%. And all for a childish Cowboys and Indians like Adult Game, I despair of Humanity!

  2. In principle reunification is sensible but Ireland’s position in the EU has been weakened by Brexit. Most of their trade was via the UK. Reunification would see many jobs go in the North and Ireland won’t be getting hand outs from the EU in future, austerity is the only game in town from now on which might force Ireland to become even more neoliberal than it already is.
    My heart says yes, but my head says not yet s while.

    1. We would certainly need some kind of Special Relationship with Ireland, I for on REALLY hope we do, but with Wannabee Psycho Churchill bashing his chest like a baby Gorilla I fear not!

      1. Pity that the virus will kill us all esp the new moon variant. I’ll be alright, I got a diving suit on eBay. Healthy but alone. X

      2. Wah hah hah, I can see you up and downing the Canals already right now.
        Good luck Wobbly X
        https://youtu.be/vmezIIrFQmY?list=PL3QZdT22H57iLmYalecL3ESk1PtgloyIK
        I am personally keeping my fingers crossed for an earth sized meteorite to pulverise the toxic waste dump humans created right our of the Universe! I’d normally just say all the humans, but after thinking about it, it would be very cruel to leave anything living on this dump site!

  3. It would depend as to whatever a vote in Stormont favours a Referendum on the question of uniting Ireland or no. In the case of NI unlike Scotland the UK government cannot refuse a request from Stormont.

  4. If only it was that simple, but anyone who knows N. Ireland or anyone who pays more than a cursory attention, to N. Ireland, will tell you, it’s the 3, 4 or 5% of that 45% we need to worry about.

    They’re, still, living in the ar*e-end of the fifteenth century. Some might have made it as far as the early twentieth century. Some may even have made it to the end of the twentieth century.

    Whichever, East Belfast and South East Antrim – and other parts will join in – because, ‘We’re British and Loyalists’ – will, still, fight tooth and nail – literally – to remain a part of the UK.

    Have a look at the connections between the DUP, the US Christian Fundamentalists – and, by extension the rabid right-wing Israeli Jews. Strange bed-fellows? Maybe! The one thing they have all in common is a persecution complex and siege mentality. ‘They’re all out to get us!’ The curious thing is, out of those three groupings, no one is, really, sure which is the senior partner.

    The BBC can run as many polls as they like, but it’s that small percentage of people they have to convince

    If only there was a politician with the courage to go to N. Ireland and find out, exactly, what it is they want. You know, sit down and talk to them – all sides – and listen to them and see if there’s a solution to be found, somehow. Hmm, let me think.

    I know one thing, neither of the current front-benches have anyone of that calibre.

    1. George, what they also all have in common is they have the arrogance to believe they have a divine right to colonise someone else’s territory.

      1. The Zionists had many land offers that was either unpopulated or sparsely populated with enough land for trouble free coexistence!
        Most people think the Zionist invasion is linked to WW2 It is not! The Zionists started colonising Palestine in 1885 in 1889 they raised the First Flag with The Star of David as we know it, but with the word Maccabees written on it!
        There is NO mistaking in the meaning and intention of that flag raised, So when we say Nakba 75 years it is wrong, Nakba is 136 years old if we read the old reports/records from the from the Ottoman and The Military, that much is clear, Internet search “Tel Aviv 1900” You will be quite surprised if you were made to believe the Zionist Colonisation started because of WW2!
        I love this Website it holds all the Truth:
        https://www.paljourneys.org/en/timeline/overallchronology?show=intro&sideid=6428

    2. Back in the day when Palestine and Gaza was The Party stopover of the Ethiopia/Egypt to Babylon Trade Route a time when Goatherds and Traders were still telling Magical Fables of a Time/Place where only one god [El the Top God of The Canaanite Semite Polytheist Religions who Ironically sits on a Golden Throne in The Clouds/Sky] existed not the normal/usual 12 and where actual people were imaginary countries and their sons tribes, ironically with 12 sons, a place where people live sexless and started having children at 99yo not 16 to 24 and die at 50/60 MAX!
      All the way back then someone thought to themself if I can take all those stories stick them in one scroll convince those people that there is only one god and that god speaks to me and they must listen to me and give me their money, I could control all these bastards! Then a few years later someone figured out what was going on, and figured, If I create a Messiah and write a bunch more stories I could take all those people and control them! I just need a family prepared to run with it and let me train their son to be The Messiah! Few years later They did a great acting job on Tricking The People into believing the Messiah was dead, then rose, then went to heaven on a puff of cloud! After receiving his bag of Gold The Star “Jesus” became Andrew and Andrew and Girlfriend Maria Magdalen set off for the Quiet Life on Corsica!
      Years later a Saudi Prince realised what was going on and figured The Old man had a Son with the Wife’s Maid, God said His FIRST son, and regardless of who the mother is a Man’s first Son is a Man’s first son! The Prince concocted a new story and we know the rest!
      Not content this one god that speaks to certain people made them create these 3 religions and then not happy with that he had them split into all sorts of different flavours of the same Religions!
      I remember as a Child, growing up in a fundamentalist Christian home praying to the Universe (never believed the god BS) that my dad PLEASE never ever hears any voices in his head, to offer us children. I was REALLY Petrified of my Parents, Their Looney Religion and the people at the church! Them beating me to church, every Sunday! Sunday was my beatings day! First to get me to church, then for being outrageous in church, then for not napping after Sunday Lunch, I reckon it was their nookie day rather than nap day! I must have ruined many a moment, no wonder it took them 7 years to produce my sister! :):):):):)

      1. PS All these man made religions, and people are still stupid enough to kill each other for it! The Protestants and Catholics were horrendous to each other bu to still in 2021 cling onto such nonsense is literally insane!

      2. PPS MORE Insane than Psycho BoJo Wannabe Churchill, going all guns blazing to get us all killed!

    3. George peel. Thanks for drawing attention to the End of days fundementilists the complex problems of the forced “Settlement” of Ireland has been a disaster for the native Catholic population and the working-class unionist who have been played by the British Empire and kept trapped in a time warp and indoctrinated in poitical \religious beliefs that are straight out of the 1600s.Unification of Ireland is inevitable and dangerous and the British government must face up to the fact that the Republic will not be forced upon the unionist populations who are most definitely not Loyalist just abandoned by a country Britain who no longer sees religion as anything more than another arm to the establishment system,but only for ceremonial duties.This mistake as the plantation of Ulster surely was will need far more appropriate people to negotiate with the unionist populations than Johnsons wide boys and asset managers.The 2party system in the Republic of Ireland is broken and the future government will be the first left wing socialist government Sinn Fein and the old capitalist system will be swept away by a educated and proud majority in the Republic.That will like demographics will not happen overnight ,but will come about whatever..Like a leader of the opposition we hope and pray for a leader of some stature who will grasp the poison chalice of a United Ireland……I wonder what Howard Beckett the lawyer from Belfast thinks of this ..He could almost be ideally suited with a Protestant born father and a Catholic mother..but that is another story for the future of the UK.

    4. Oh, by the way, the reason why the DUP hold such a strong hand, in that unholy alliance, is because of the £1.5 billion gifted to them by May, as a bribe to prop up her piss-poor, ‘strong and stable’ government.

    1. Maria
      Have you met some of the tribes up here
      Only a benevolent dictatorship would work, slap them about with a Craster Kipper or give them some Byker teacake if they step out of line

    1. Hear! Hear!
      For ALL The PEOPLE as ONE UNITED!
      The PEOPLE SHALL GOVERN!

      1. Which one? Sheffield *’He’ says as though speaking football is second nature* 🙂

  5. As James Connolly tragically recognised (or betted on and lost depending on your point of view), solving national questions are sometimes a precondition to moving on to solve questions of class struggle, a recurring theme that at one time boiled down to a battle between the “stickies” and the “pinnies” in the north of Ireland.

    The problem that currently besets socialists in Ireland, regardless of their cultural backgrounds, is twofold: first that Sinn Fein, which once held a principled stance against the EU and imperialist domination in Ireland, has back-pedalled to the point that its loyalty to Brussels and the EU commission is only vaguely distinguishable from that of the southern bourgeois parties and their Labour lickspittles: second that the Republic has a corporation tax of 12.5% and thus qualifies as an offshore tax haven of sorts.

    In these conditions, maintaining any coherent sense of where socialists and revolutionaries should stand with regard to the national question is no walk in the park, which is why the like of former physical force man and hunger striker Tommy McKearney (and many other comrades of his ilk that I am glad to call friends) are increasingly gravitating towards revolutionary marxism.

    In the latest issue of the excellent monthly “Socialist Voice,” Barry Murray has this to say:

    https://socialistvoice.ie/2021/04/the-broad-front-alliances-compromises-and-principles-a-republican-view/

    My original post was merely questioning some sloppy journalism.

  6. It needs to happen. The continued Unionist insistence on suspending the N.I. Assembly, combined with the Unionist/Tory canard that ONLY Republicans were responsible for sectarian violence and that everything Loyalists did was somehow just self-defense have discredited the heroic attempt at power-sharing- an attempt that was only going to work if Unionists/Loyalists were willing to let go of their pointless, outdated, bloody-minded obsession with having to have the upper hand. No one in N.I. was ever going to be harmed by the formation of a 32-county state, no one will be when it happens now, and non-reactionary, non-bigoted, non-discriminatory Ulster Unionism was never going to be a thing- just as a Labour form of Ulster Unionism was never going to be possible.

  7. Sectarian. Nationalist……..reunification of the British Isles? We are one island people with artificial identities imposed. How many referendums until the right result is achieved in Scotland? Menthorn is working hard for the BBC to achieve its nationalist goals. What if the right referendum result is not achieved & there isn’t a small majority for Sturgeon & her chums to take over gov’t in the name of independence, when will there be another call for another referendum? If independence is achieved in a ballot, why not another referendum soon after to reverse that decision? Why should anyone accept the results of any referendum?
    The concept of independence & re-unification in Britain is vague. Independence from what? Arrogant public school aristocrats & bourgeois elites? Now the BBC refers to the 4 Nations but they are geographic regions of the British Isles with a little artificial culture promoted by MSM. In the south of Ireland cars drive on the left hand side of the road; everyone supports either Manchester United of Liverpool; watches the BBC; speaks english in the pub. In Scotland, SNP wants the queen to remain as monarch & the Bank of England printing their money. Salmon & Sturgeon want to be figures of history & big fish a a smaller pool. The question should be what unites the people of the British Isles with shared culture & blood. A form of regional independence & autonomy could be a good idea but not sectarianism & nationalism. The independence game is played by bourgeois elites & is dangerous; it kills people. .

    1. “The independence game is played by bourgeois elites & is dangerous; it kills people. .”

      But independence from the EU is different?

    2. Steve Richard’s
      creative destruction, pushing Humpty off the wall so you can put him back together again
      Since 1979 it’s been coming for a long time
      Also for the first time cheap and nasty Tory party are left holding the parcel bomb
      One Nation Socialism will win the day

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