Analysis Breaking comment

Reported C19 infections ~double twice in successive days – and Tories’ excuses can’t mask reality or need for national lockdown

Department of Health and Social Care’s excuses can’t hide fact that 7-day average is rocketing just as fast

A chart of the 7 day average and daily increases in coronavirus infections

The daily number of coronavirus cases has almost doubled for the second day in a row, reaching levels far beyond anything seen during the first wave of the pandemic.

From 6,968 cases on Friday – itself almost a record in the crisis so far – the number of new infections almost doubled on Saturday to 12, 872 on Saturday and then did the same today to 22,961. The biggest number during the first phase of the pandemic was 6,201.

The Department of Health and Care (DHSC) has attempted to minimise the scandal by claiming that Public Health England ‘missed’ 15,481 cases ‘in recent days’, inflating this weekend’s numbers.

But the 7-day average, which is meant to smooth out such omissions and catch-ups, is showing just as steep a rate of increase – and was doing so well before this weekend:

As usual, the government’s official page doesn’t allow visitors to view the most up to date 7-day average, either in the data or in the charts. But in the figures up to 1 October – before the latest spike and before the ‘missed’ numbers were included, the average can clearly be seen to be rising exponentially.

The Tories’ measures – and their decision to apply them only in working-class, Labour-voting areas in spite of higher infection rates in many Tory constituencies – are clearly ineffective. Tiptoeing around the edge of the already-massive second wave is not enough.

The Tories are determined to avoid a new nationwide lockdown and protect the profits of their backers, but it looks increasingly like the only option that will actually work and it must be accompanied by a renewed – and full – furlough scheme to protect the economy across the country, not just in Tory-friendly areas.

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  1. GOV.UK 4 OCT:
    “An issue was identified overnight on Friday 2 October in the automated process that transfers positive cases data to PHE. It has now been resolved.
    The cases by publish date for 3 and 4 October include 15,841 additional cases with specimen dates between 25 September and 2 October — they are therefore artificially high for England and the UK.”

    NOTE: the 12,871 cases reported today included a backlog, which Worldometer has redistributed historically based on the testing date information provided for the 10,806 cases reported by England today and the official note provided by the UK Government: “Due to a technical issue, which has now been resolved, there has been a delay in publishing a number of COVID-19 cases to the dashboard in England. This means the total reported over the coming days will include some additional cases from the period between 24 September and 1 October, increasing the number of cases reported.”

    Case numbers from 21st. September to 2nd. October (inclusive) have today been updated on Worldometer.
    4368>4437, 4926>5079, 6178>6899, 6634>7357, 6873>7518, 6041>7579, 5693>7713, 4044>4662, 7143>9116, 7108>10157, 6914>11047, 6968>11754

    What appeared to be an almost doubling in numbers over the last few days does now look less threatening being spread over the preceding ten days – that would suit the Tories obviously, but if this were a ploy to conceal a huge new peak it would only give them a short breathing space before it ramped up again – a week at most.
    More likely some government number cruncher just ran out of fingers – it wouldn’t be the first time.

  2. Wild guess – could the “automated process technical issue” be hospital doctors rebelling against Tory instructions to give non-coronavirus causes of death for coronavirus deaths – but still being under threat to give the Tories a way to save face?
    “Adjustment” of coronavirus reported cases and deaths has happened before and I wondered then if the Tories might be forcing doctors to fiddle the books.
    I still wonder.

  3. Do catch up. Here’a the news for those not glues to the BBC.

    This is all about PCR test results which are notoriously not about real ‘infection’ or real ‘cases’ i.e illness. The facts about these tests and the massive numbers of false positivesrare well known – in summary : garbage. The stuff conjoured up by Witless and Unbalanced to scare the shit out of the knicker-wetting gullible on behalf of the government.

    it’s what’s known as a ‘casedemic’, simply a fact of absurd levels of pointless testing..Real Covid-19 is almost invisible as a cause of mortality.

  4. The old joke about the surgeon saying we have some good news and bad news
    Bad news is I chopped off the wrong leg
    Good news is your other leg got better and that bloke over there in the other bed has offered to buy your slippers off you
    My dad has had three Covid19 tests all positive and he is yet to show any symptoms, over the last 17 days, 3 false positives
    Good news is he will pass with everything else he has been fighting for too long
    Hospital is in lockdown, his wife hasn’t seen him for 3 weeks and its not certain we will be allowed to attend his funeral
    This has become a sick joke

  5. The fact an Excel spreadsheet hit its maximum file size makes you wonder just how much data is being stored.

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