Analysis

Hospital admissions on day Johnson relaxed lock-down are double what they were when he imposed it – and deaths FIVE times higher

Johnson’s latest lock-down easing comes when viral base in UK is far higher than it was when the lock-down first took place

Boris Johnson’s announcement yesterday of further relaxations in the lock-down has received little critical examination in the media – presumably because even a cursory examination shows the recklessness, even madness, of any easing at all.

When Johnson first announced the lock-down, the UK had 74 deaths that day. Yesterday, the government announced 377 – five times as many:

Johnson and his apologists might argue that the deaths lag behind the curve of infections and accept his argument a downward trend justifies the relaxation – but this is also misleading.

Johnson claimed that there has been a ‘consistent’ reduction in deaths and new hospital admissions, but deaths reported in the last two days have spiked – almost 800 in just two days:

Spike in deaths, with the last two days higher than the previous seven – and higher than all but one day in the last twelve

At the same time as deaths have shown a sharp upturn, hospital admissions – the truest indicator of the extent of the virus in the population in the absence of a blanket testing programme – are nearly double the rate they were when Johnson announced the lock-down:

Not only that, but the rate in many areas is rising – particularly in London – from a date that coincides with the incubation of infections transmitted when Johnson first eased the lock-down by ordering those who can’t work from home to go back to work:

The London rate of hospital admissions has shot up over the last week and is already the highest it has been in six weeks. The wider south-east and other areas are also showing signs of smaller, but significant upturns.

At a point when the UK demonstrably has a larger pool of infection than it had when he called it – and one that is increasing – he is telling us all that things have moved so far in the right direction that the lock-down can be relaxed.

And this is all before children start to return to school next week, which scientists know will lead to an increase – even if the government wasn’t telling teachers who have been in contact with symptomatic sufferers not to go home and self-isolate.

1.7% of the nation’s children, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics, live with people over 70 years of age – the most vulnerable to the worst effects of the virus. There is no room for doubt that the schools return will cause avoidable deaths, even without the new easings:

680,000 households with children going back to school next week means around 12,000 old people in new danger, even if there is only one old person per household – and the virus does not only kill the elderly.

Unite’s Howard Beckett, who has been one of the strongest in identifying the dangers and calling for appropriate action, summed up the significance of these numbers:

In the 1918 influenza pandemic, the second wave killed far more people than the first.

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9 comments

  1. Lord Tugenheim sponsored Extermination Rebellion through the use of Julian Vincent and his nerd friend the Right Honourable William Rees-Mogg.

    They have pursued a false conduct due to misinformation about the nature of green theory and thermodynamic practises as is illustrated in my essay below.

    Further the Labour Party was infiltrated by greens from Ollie Middleton to Chukka Umunna and Luciana Berger.

    Yours

    Bruce E Saunders, M.Eng, Ph.D.

  2. The Tories were criminally irresponsible in delaying the start of lockdown measures. Both Germany and Mexico imposed their lockdowns when they had totals of less than 10 deaths each, the UK waited until we had over 380 deaths before they did anything. Imposing the UK lockdown a week earlier would have saved 1,000s of lives.

  3. The original lockdown was in response to President Macron’s threats to close the border if the UK didn’t get it under control. Now it’s obvious Brits won’t have freedom to enter man6 countries especially those in Europe it no longer matters to him so he and his friend will get on with their original plan, herd immunity. It’s so much cheaper! And at least 2 people now assume they have immunity so what’s the problem?

  4. The Greeks have published a list of the countries who are allowed to send tourists to their country, the UK, unsurprisingly didn’t make the list.

    ATHENS – Greece’s government released on Friday the first list of 29 countries allowed to send tourists to the country as of June 15 by flights to the airports of Athens and Thessaloniki.

    Sample tests for the novel coronavirus will be conducted to travelers from the 29 countries — that include Albania, Australia, Austria, Bulgaria, China, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Japan, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Malta, Montenegro, New Zealand, Norway, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea and Switzerland.

    The list was drafted based on the epidemiological profile of the countries and European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) announcements, following recommendations from Greek scientists, according to an e-mailed press statement issued by the Ministry of Tourism.
    https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202005/29/WS5ed11c6ea310a8b241159907.html

  5. It seems that now that Cummings’ arrogance and concept has caused many people (excluding BBC Journalists except Emily Maitlis) to question Johnson’s competency, Johnson’s Pandemic Management Is Trashing His Authority.

    Even Sir Keir’s wallpaper Labour Party (the one that’s resurrecting newlabour inelectability) is going to benefit.

    1. The only thing Qwertboi is that this incompetent and callous government was elected by a landslide and it will be at least 4 years before they have to stand again so we are stuck with them for the foreseeable.The devastation they have caused and will continue to cause may mean that they will lose in 2024 and we will then get a right wing Labour government consisting of the likes of Jess Phillips, Neil Coyle Angela Eagle Hilary Benn Margaret Hodge Was Streeting etc and nobody will be able to tell the difference

  6. Reports on BBC News of fears about fraudsters possibly being able to impersonate the testing system for profit.
    If testers are instructed always to declare the time and place that contact with an infected person could have occurred, the “victim’s” memory should be a good enough check on its authenticity.
    As long as the testing system itself hasn’t been hacked and the fraudster doesn’t know the victim personally it ought to be enough to prevent common fraud – spying on or repression of the State’s perceived enemies with repeated lockdowns are a different matter.

    1. Tracers, not testers to disclose the contact time and place, obviously.
      That was a bit careless, sorry – which reminds me – I wonder how many people cheating on husbands and wives will get busted from being in the wrong place at the wrong time…
      No, no special reason. Why do you ask?

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