Analysis Guest article

How quickly do CV symptoms appear and how long are you infectious? Dr Kailash Chand gives the latest info

How long after infection do symptoms appear? Are people infectious during this time? What about people with no symptoms? Eminent medic Dr Kailash Chand OBE passes on what is known so far
Dr Kailash Chand OBE

“According to the World Health Organisation, there is no evidence of re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 after recovery”

GP and former deputy chair of the British Medical Association Dr Kailash Chand writes:

  • the best current estimate of the COVID-19 incubation period is 5.1 days, with 99% of individuals exhibiting symptoms within 14 days of exposure. Fewer than 2.5% of infected individuals show symptoms sooner than 2 days after exposure
  • the reported range of incubation periods is wide, with high-end estimates from different sources of 24, 18 and 11.3 days
  • individuals can test positive for COVID-19 despite lacking clinical symptoms
  • individuals can be infectious while asymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals can have similar amounts of virus in their nose and throat as people showing symptoms
  • the infectious period is uncertain, but possibly up to 10-14 days – although there have been reports of longer
  • on average, there are approximately 4 to 7.5 days between symptom onset in successive cases of a single transmission chain
  • most individuals requiring hospitalisation are admitted within 8-14 days of symptom onset
  • patients are positive for COVID-19 via PCR (polymerase chain reaction) for 8-37 days after symptom onset
  • individuals may test positive via PCR for 5-13 days after symptom recovery and hospital discharge. The ability of these individuals to infect others is currently unknown
  • according to the World Health Organisation, there is no evidence of re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 after recovery
  • experimentally infected macaques were not capable of being reinfected after their primary infection resolved

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  1. Thank you, Skwawkbox for one aspect of this being covered dispassionately, with all the uncertainty that this entails.

  2. The indication that re-infection isn’t happening is welcome news if it holds up. It will put extra pressure on Govt to ensure Certificates of Immunity are provided ASAP and are reliable. A lot of people without work need them as the passport back to work, especially craftsman visiting houses window cleaning or fixing the boiler. All they need now is a Test that works, hopefully as good as the one the Health Secretary has taken as he’s back in the front line just a week later.

  3. New Advanced Treatment aka DNR or Respect Forms, encourages anyone over the age of 75 to “hurry up & die”. Institutional prejudice against ‘Baby Boomers’ has been manifest throughout MSM for many years as the elderly are being triaged into death. Agency carers are spreading Covid 19 because the care system is the poorest of the poor & not part of NHS., .

    An important message that needs to be emphasised today, but especially during the next election.season, BBC defends the system as logical & necessary as the London ‘Nightingale’ Hospital has been ‘Magiced’ into existence. Cradle to grave asap.

  4. “DNR or Respect Forms, encourages anyone over the age of 75 to “hurry up & die”.”

    Not so.

    The *panic* over Covid-19 has increased pressure to get the procedure done in an unseemly way. But anyone who has had to deal with the situation knows that it’s a necessary part of end-of-life care.

    1. RH thank God you are not a doctor. Murder and euthanasia are one and the same thing..remember dangerous talk can cost lives ,especially with the establishment Tory government.

      1. FFS, Joseph – stop ranting incoherent nonsense – I thought you’d recovered from viral infection.

        Who’s talking about ‘euthanasia’ – let alone ‘murder’?

        You obviously haven’t the foggiest about this issue.

      2. Eugenics was a popular science in Europe and very much included programmes of euthanasia to rid the human race of genetic defects. Tens of thousands were killed in Germany under Hitler’s Nazis in the 1930’s. Men like Bertrand Russell thought it was a humane idea! In Germany some were given killer cocktails as is suggested for Old Brits today but most were herded into the backs of lorries and gassed with exhaust fumes. The ‘liberal’ World fell out of love with Eugenics when Hitler turned it against entire races of people, Jews and Slavs principally. The Fascist Right has always hankered after the idea and today It thinks it’s found a new class needing elimination, the economically unproductive and those over 70, the traditional three score and ten.

      3. But I guess Americans weren’t thinking of racial exterminations? – although I remember a famous ‘progressive’ of the period who thought race war inevitable and white America should start immediately by massacring the Filipinos during the invasion and occupation by the US. That was Jack London. He died in 1916 before he could turn formally fascist. He remained one of Stalins favourite writers.

    2. ‘But anyone who has had to deal with the situation knows that it’s a necessary part of end-of-life care.’

      Yeah, cos that’s EXACTLY what happened with the Liverpool Care Pathway, isn’t it?

      Oh, and don’t even think about attempting one of your smartarse, pedantic, contrary answers – Unless you’ve had someone on the so-called ‘necessary part’.

      1. In answer to your moronic post, Toffer – yes I have.

        If it helps you to deal with your problems – keep milking the faux man-of-the-people sweary bullshit. But don’t expect to be taken seriously on serious issues. Any toffer can wax sweary about the evil Tories without saying anything insightful.

      2. You’ve been told that if you speak to people like they’re pricks then expect to have it reciprocated.

        Unlike you, I don’t deliberately set out with the express purpose to antagonise people. The reason I talk down to you is because you think you’re better than everyone else.

        You pretentious, pompous ponce. I couldn’t give a fuck what you think of my language. Doesnt in any way, shape, nor form make your case – in any way, shape, nor form- superior.

        And it invariably isn’t anyway.

      3. “I don’t deliberately set out with the express purpose to antagonise people.”

        Well – thanks for the laugh – the ad hominem schtick you indulge in is immense. I could actually never match you for self-deluding and posing pomposity – or sheer hypocrisy – Toffer.

        Use what language you like – just try to say *something* else more often – and stop wetting your nappy and yowling like a spoilt brat, claiming offense whenever someone answers back in kind. I just call out nonsense for what it is – like that simplistic tripe about DNR forms; for the most part I simply make or take up an argument.

        Sorry you feel inadequate and a prick. But I reckon that’s something you have to deal with.

  5. I recently came across this :

    “Yes, that’s right, global capitalism (a/k/a “the world”) is now at war with Death … which is great news for authoritarians! No more bothersome critical thinking. The time for questioning our leaders is over. It’s time to shut up and follow orders. We’re in a global state of emergency, folks!

    We’re talking lockdowns, soldiers in the streets, abrogation of our constitutional rights, arbitrary arrests, indefinite detentions, round-the-clock media fear-propaganda … the whole totalitarian megillah!

    What, you’re probably asking, is the War on Death? Well … for those who remember the War on Terror, the War on Death is just like that, except this time the evil enemy is Death … or, all right, maybe not exactly like that, but there are a number of striking similarities.”

    Like me, you might have reservations about agreeing with this perspective in its entirety, but I’m fascinated at the low level of interest in the issue of civil liberties that have been raised by the actions of a government notoriously careless of truth and judicial balance.

    1. But the current situation offers opportunities for a radical re-shaping, so we shouldn’t get too negative. Were our civic rights so good we must sacrifice lives to preserve it – or start afresh? There is no need to return to Old Ways patched up as best they can. There isn’t enough sticking plaster to cover up this one.

      1. You sound like god pushing out Noah’s boat 🙂

        ” Were our civic rights so good…?”

        They were a f. sight better than now! Objectively. Even if they could be better in general.

        “There is no need to return to Old Ways”

        Indeed – I bet it’s not what the Tories are lining up for, certainly. They won the election by manipulation via the media. They are sustaining themselves with a bit of good old panic endorsed by the media. We already have promises of limiting Judicial Review, for instance, and two suspensions of parliament in six months.

        The ‘radical reshaping’ could indeed be about replacing the shaky Weimar republic (actully, in this case : monarchy) with a Brave New World of healthy living and autobahns. On past form, the gullible will vote for it.

      2. When the current state of a country is one of corruption and incompetence it’s no surprise people want change. I don’t think the Right is going to be able to stop it now, however obscure the rhetoric. Leave the old broken system, get going with something different.

      3. Sorry, Paul, I’m interested in the nature of any change. Moving backwards isn’t the same as progress.

      4. Sorry RH but I do dislike what somebody has rightly called your ‘smart arsed’ responses designed to distract and confuse. Everybody is a moron to you. You should go back to Off Guardian where they suddenly appear to love the Bolsanaro approach to the virus; “What virus? Oh that touch of flu like last year? No problem”:

      5. Regardless of the colours the doorstep applause was very emotional and incredibly enthusiastic here in NW London, unsurprising perhaps given the work load and risks faced by staff in local hospitals. As the evenings get longer and warmer it will be interesting to see how that community feeling develops. In a month or so it might quite easily turn into a mass breakout and rebellion against such a hopeless Govt.

      6. Paul – I think a bit of reflection is in order. There is nothing in my responses to you that resorts to ‘ad hominem’ stuff or ‘smart-arsed’ – unless you include the odd tongue-in-cheek remark such as that about ‘pushing out Noah’s boat’, or being intolerant of assertion in place of argument. Just point out to me anything in this current conversation that is inherently offensive.

        What’s ‘smart-arsed’ about argument and contrary opinion? I certainly *don’t* treat everyone like a ‘moron’ – only those who engage in moronic and irrelevant personalised non-argument – then I’ll bite back in the same mode (although ignoring might, I agree, be more sensible).

        In terms of issues, I actually expect others to argue back in the same way – which expectation is not at all ‘patronising’ – rather than resorting to social media bawling when a contrary opinion appears.

        The alternative is for sites like this to become simply closed systems for bias confirmation and agreement therapy – the curse of so many social media sites.

        Arguing that the Earth revolves around the Sun was regarded as ‘smart-arsed’ at one time, I guess.

    2. I have to wonder what bliarite – So obviously distracting from the aggregate of 1 new criminal offence per day introduced under the bliarite govt, as well as the ‘snooper’s charter’ that was the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act 2000 (RIPA) ; all at a time when there was NO pandemic affecting the population; and even before 9/11 – wrote that?

      Starmer? Nah. Even he’s savvy enough to realise it’d be a bit rich for him (Or ANY bliarite, for that matter) to complain of ‘authoritarianism’ in the current circumstances…

      1. “Whataboutery’ – the key litmus test for a fake in radical clothing.

      2. Not really.

        You see, I’ve got a grasp on the gravitas of the current situation and what is called for out of necessity; instead of being aloof, supercilious, and positively detached from reality to forget (or rather, disregard) what was done from authoritarianism, bordering on totalitarianism.

        In the event liberties that have just been OPENLY rescinded (As we know what has, rather than police-state laws passed surreptitiously by the bliar & brown regime) are not returned once this crisis passes, then I’ll happily recant.

        Until then, bliar and his Govt are every bit AND MORE the shogunate you’re accusing this current shower of being.


  6. I forgot to say, Hancock had to be forced to make tests available to NHS staff. He was forced, and then only allowed a maximum of 15% staff to be tested. It is obvious that in caring for patients ALL medical staff intermingle with each other and are in contact with patients. It is obvious that medical staff are moving about much more than hospitalised patients. So NHS and all frontline staff are super vectors symptomatic or not. Hancock is either a liar or incompetent. It is my firm view that he is both. The MSM are shielding Hancock and the Tories blue and red as usual. The MSM know MUCH more than they pretend not to know. It is a charade. Not one reader or contributor to skwawkbox could be fooled. Hopefully more of the electorate will check here first. 🌹🌹🌹

  7. More anti-hysteria vaccine : :

    “New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms…..

    “… it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’”

    ….“There can be little doubt that covid-19 may be far more widely distributed than some may believe. Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.

    “What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”

    1. “What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”


      1. The fascists have always disagreed. For them the State is paramount and to preserve it they’d kill whole classes of citizens

    2. RH keep thinking inside your cosy box,and be first in the q to admire the TORY version of Science and eugenics.You must be impressed the way super humans like Cummings,Hancock and Johnson have managed to run the country from their bolt hole and turn the laws of science and medicine upside down with a miraculous recovery,whilst mear mortals like myself fit and healthy struggled to get out of bed with the virus.But then again maybe you are clinging to the Tory dogma to hope you will survive.Well you wont if you follow the will be left high and dry with No Health service.No pension.And No life worth living.Get real comrade

      1. Contradictory bollocks again – are you going for Olympic gold, Joseph?

        Mostly I’ve been incoherently ranted at for *not* unquestioningly accepting the Tory government panic narrative.

        And that’s science – simply asking questions and looking at the information.

        I wish you well in your recovery, but isolated individual experiences – yours or mine – don’t amount to science.

        Remember ‘elbow’ is ‘up’ and ‘arse’ is ‘down’.

  8. Slightly off-topic…

    But this ‘clap the NHS’ thing. Is it coincidence the powers-that-be decided to light up everywhere with BLUE lights?

    Yes, the old bill and fire bobbies use blue lights too. But it’s also just happens to be the colour of a certain political party, coincidentally.

    Doctors (on call) have GREEN lights.

    Jus’ sayin’…

    1. As someone who’s life has become dominated by managing a chronic Heavy Metal Overdose, I can tell you that RED light, ie near- and far-infrared is highly beneficial and therapeutic to the human body. Blue light is not.

      Red is the colour of life.

  9. Let’s not forget that economic meltdown was threatened by the super rich and the Tories as a consequence of electing a Corbyn government – why wouldn’t they use the same threats to ensure their privilege survives this episode?

  10. RH 3/4/20 3:29pm
    The BMJ damages its credibility by prematurely publishing such a pathetically shallow and biased article based on a tiny sample of 166 – TESTED THE DAY BEFORE PUBLICATION.
    In CHINA ffs where the intervention has been MASSIVE and COMPETENT.
    Hardly even deserving of the term ‘results’ since the data are from 1st April and this shite was published on the 2nd.
    Pretty much the definition of ‘rush to judgement’.
    Peppered with mealy-mouthed ifs, buts and maybes as it is, the article’s clear purpose is to promote murder by “herd immunity” to save the rich from loss.

    Not something anyone with the least degree of competence in statistics would waste a single sentence on.
    The Chinese example proves the efficacy of its policies, not that the danger has been overstated.

    1. “The BMJ damages its credibility by prematurely publishing such a pathetically shallow and biased article based on a tiny sample of 166”

      Tell the BMJ that. I’m just passing it on.

      The fact is (that I’ve been saying all along, and at the heart of most that I’ve posted) that *all* the current data is in this area of uncertainty and absent proper sampling. But the potential differences in outcome are very large.

      I don’t need telling that Covid-9 can bre very nasty. Just like any similar virus. And, of course, the singular distinction is that there is no vaccine.

      But I also want to know how lethal it is (for me), what the chances of infection are, and how widespread it actually is.

      That’s why I posted a while back the very clear exposition of the issues by Ionnides from a data perspective – pointing to the need for much better information and, as a corollary, a proper sampling and testing regime.

      Other than that, I’m interested to know wheter the balance of current emerging information is that the dangers have tended towards reducing risk assessments, rather than increasing them.

  11. correction – “Not something anyone with the least degree of competence in statistics – or the least regard for Hippocrates – would waste a single sentence on.

  12. Starmer and Rayner. Fucking dream team. Shit.
    I don’t know why I’m moaning, I’m not even a member anymore.
    What should we call the new party?

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