Boris Johnson and advisers don’t say number out loud, but their maths is clear
Boris Johnson, the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) and Chief Scientific Officer (CSO) appeared on national television this morning and admitted that a UK death toll from the COVID-19 coronavirus of more than half a million people is a ‘reasonable’ worst-case scenario.
They didn’t say that number out loud, of course – that might lead to uncomfortable questions about the Tories sham ‘quarantine‘ of potentially infected passengers – but the maths is simple:
The UK’s population at the last census in 2011 was a little over 63 million. Johnson’s advisers admitted that it is not unrealistic that eighty percent of the population will catch the disease – more than fifty million people.
And they admit – although they raised potential factors that might reduce it – that current experience suggests that 1% of those catching the disease are likely to die from it.
That equation means more than half a million UK people dying from a disease that the Tories have done little to prevent or combat so far.
The government’s language of the ‘great majority’ surviving is little comfort – and does nothing to cover their reckless and frankly lazy approach at the outset of this crisis.
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