Tories plunge to lowest-EVER monthly Westminster polling average

Conservatives plummet amid Brexit chaos and in-fighting
Original graphic: Matt Thomas

The chaos and incompetence of the Tories continues to bite and has seen the Nasty Party hit its lowest-ever monthly average polling rating, as the excellent Matt Thomas has pointed out:

SKWAWKBOX view:

Now if only Labour’s centrist relics would stop pushing a false picture of Labour’s Brexit position – and better yet if Labour drops any talk of a new public vote entirely – to allow the party’s outstanding policy set to shine as it should, Labour’s already-strong position would look unassailable.

Which of course is exactly why a lot of them are recklessly muddying the waters. It has to stop.

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44 responses to “Tories plunge to lowest-EVER monthly Westminster polling average

  1. The relics, a few of whom post here incessantly, would counter that Tory ratings are bad only because they aren’t a remain party. They will probably point to some poll or other where the LibDems have recovered slightly from their historically low base and interpret it as an omen that if Labour supported a PV they would gain votes from all and sundry.

    • Just noticed this corker :

      “The relics, a few of whom post here incessantly, would counter that Tory ratings are bad only because they aren’t a remain party.”

      Where did you come across that notion??? Reference.please.

  2. Good news about the polling, but Skwawky’s conclusions don’t follow logically on from that. We are not in the same sort of situation as 1995.

    • Exactly. Kinnock-type complacency is not a good look when Labour is posting a remarkably low level of support.

      No, lundiel – it’s not all about Brexit, and the biased media assault on Corbyn has had an effect (aided by Lexit support for Tory policy). But it isn’t a celebration of Labour credibility, either.

      • A remarkably low level of support that is still several percentage points higher that Brown managed in 2010 or Miliband in 2015.

        It’s not complacency. It is the fact that slowly but surely the party is recovering from ten years of catastrophe under the right of the party, and nobody is interested in hearing from the authors of the catastrophe about how we are not undoing the damage they did quickly enough, so should stand aside and let them do it all over again.

      • ” slowly but surely the party is recovering from ten years of catastrophe ”

        That’s my concern – that the overall trend is distinctly and consistently in the other direction over the past two years, from the high point of the election .

      • Just as an addendum, Ultraviolet – there *was* a sign of Labour recovery around March – April whilst the Tories nose-dived.

        Had this continued, optimism would be justified – but it was a temporary phenomenon, and subsequently more decline in projected vote-share followed – to an even lower level.

      • RH Given our ” remarkably low level of support” why do you think there is no demand for a general election from any of the other parties?

      • Not difficult to discern, smartboy : in the current volatile situation, none of them feel confident, or want a GE whilst the Brexit issue is creating such an unholy mess.. For the Tories, their present showing is disastrous – and turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

      • Well unlike the others have been pressing for a general election for quite some time. Thats because we, like them, know that we are likely to be in government following the election . Your comment about our ” remarkably low level if support” is unsustainable and appears to be a case of wishful thinking.

      • Labour has nothing to lose from pushing for a general election : it is extremely unlikely to happen, so the potential costs are negligible.

        But in terms of this :

        “Your comment about our ” remarkably low level if support” is unsustainable and appears to be a case of wishful thinking.”

        (a) Why should I wish it?

        (b) It’s just a simple fact – check it out. 28% *is* a low level of support – particularly in terms of the last two years – and is worthy of remark, as well as being entirely sustainable from the data.

        Similarly, the recent leakage of votes to the LibDems and Greens was pretty worthy of remark.

      • I don’t know why you would wish us to have a remarkably low level of support but that you do so is indicated by your continual downbeat comments and negativity on this site. You are seldom positive about anything – with you it is always doom and gloom.
        I think we are doing well despite the best efforts of the MSM, the Tories, and the Labour in Name Only MPs, former MPs, activists and former activists who nobody ever heard of but who have now suddenly become loud and disaffected leading lights condemning our party and our leadership to anyone who will listen.
        Fortunately most people recognise these interventions for what they are- desperate attempts by the few or on behalf of the few to deprive us of a Socialist government which will work for the many.Therefore the smears etc don’t work and I am really looking forward to the next General Election when we can elect a labour government under Jeremy Corbyn our next PM.

      • smartboy :

        ” your continual downbeat comments and negativity on this site.”

        No. They’re just a corrective to La La Land distortions of what the situation is.

        By all means criticize me if I am wrong in terms of the data. But recognising the task is essential to fulfilling it – and Labour support is not in a good place – as I’ve detailed.

        Yes, I do link that to the floundering over the Brexit issue, and that is interpretation rather than simply data. But it is a valid interpretation, borne out by the recent local elections – and more supported by data than various airy speculations about the ‘working class’ leave vote that don’t stand up to analysis.

        I’ll repeat again a key fact (beyond the national decline in support) : here, in this city, the Greens plus LibDems polled 150% of the Labour vote. I reckon that’s serious leakage plus abstention – and has to change if there is to be a progressive government after the next election.

        Nothing to do with wishing, either way – just reality and a wake-up call.

        I was watching results in the Labour Club in 1995. The crashing of expectations was almost physical, even tho’ the local MP I was sitting with was re-elected.

        Optimism is not enough.

      • I think we all agree optimism that is not enough. This is why Jeremy is campaigning throughout the country and we have been on an election footing since 2017.
        Constant negativity is not helpful either. It causes despondency and discourages some people to make the effort as it creates the whats the point type of despair.
        People really need a labour government and most of us, irrespective of how we voted in the referendum are not Leave/ remain obsessives. We want the issue settled in a way which respect the referendum outcome, protect jobs and the economy. We can the concentrate on the fight against Tory austerity which is destroying the lives of so many.

    • ”We are not in the same sort of situation as 1995.”

      It’s not far off, but for the elephant in the room that some just won’t open the door for.

      It’s patently obvious that a labour government is NOT the priority for them.

  3. No, lundiel – it’s not all about Brexit, and the biased media assault on Corbyn has had an effect (aided by Lexit support for Tory policy)

    That’s right – a media assault – aided, abetted and even encouraged by your own snide disparaging remarks, both about the leadership and membership – hasn’t helped the toerags in any way, shape nor form. Quite the opposite, in fact.

    ”But it isn’t a celebration of Labour credibility, either.”

    No, it wouldn’t be. But it doesn’t need to be, does it?

    • ” a media assault – aided, abetted and even encouraged by your own snide disparaging remarks”

      Oh, Kev – to put it bluntly – either post some relevant argument/reasoning or just fuck off and pleasure yourself elsewhere until you’ve got such an item. (Yes – the word begins with ‘W’)

      • Oh, I’m sorry. Was that one a bit too close to home, dicky?

        True, though. And I’m not the only one to have called you out on it, am I?

        And what was irrelevant about it? Labour’s ahead in the polls despite your constant sniping and bitching. And you accuse me of having tantrums. Hahaha

        Has mrs dicky got the anti-chew furniture paint out yet? Think she best had 😀

      • Yep lundiel, the tiresomely persistent (like ringworm) Right-supporting, anti Corbyn, pro-EU fanatic, trolls , Jack T,. and RH, and their two sad little pals, are like that old trade union joke about a never-satisfied nerk at the back of the trades union meeting after a major strike has been won.

        The Shop Steward announces a 20% increase in basic pay, equal pay for men and women, The creation of a factory worker’s militia, a majority of workers on the company board, a range of other holiday benefits, and best of all announces that from now on the working week consists of only one Wednesday six hour shift ! ” EVERY bloody Wednesday ?? ” comes the squeaky little carping voice from the back – from the Tory-voting RH-like ratty scab who never stood on the picket line once, and licked the boss’s car clean every day during the strike to curry favour. That’s you and your disruptive little scab trolls , RH and co. Treacherous deliberately disruptive, lying, Right Wing Troll scum. In a good way obviously !

      • ” Was that one a bit too close to home”

        No, Kev. More just atmospheric interference from Planet Zog, burbling around in a vacuum of incomprehension. Certainly, there was no sign of intelligent life behind a signal that appeared to be from semi-detached Labour member Ha’penny and a couple of acolyte cheer leaders waving pompoms.

        Now, whilst some may enjoy pretend playgroundsocialist virtue signaling, I’d prefer to see a Labour government actually in power. So (I’ve always believed in second chances) – how about foregoing mindlessness and addressing the concern that I have raised, Namely :

        A 36% proportionate (16% points) drop in support for Labour over 2 years, masked by a recent lead over the Tories that entirely results from a collapse by the Tories.

        All the figures are there –

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

        .. if you want to forgo rattle chucking and engage in discussion.

      • Labour is reaping what it’s sown. The days of Bliar and centrist appeasement are over, but people like you RH refuse to see the writing on the wall.

        An honest description of you would be a confused Tory. You’re rammed full of bile (thread upon thread can be used as evidence), with a large side of I’m alright Jack (or why won’t you do what I want!).

        Personally, I’m done with Labour whilst people like you still think you’re in charge. You’ve had your day, and thoroughly ruined it for many whilst doing so.

        I can’t be bothered with you anymore, as you’re predictable, boring and frankly as useful as a fart in a spacesuit.

        I can sum up your reply via video

        https://youtu.be/Yxp7gj9VEVg

        TL:DR re video? Penis penis penis penis penis

      • Never voting labour again 17/05/2019 at 10:45 am · ·

        “Personally, I’m done with Labour whilst people like you still think you’re in charge.”
        We wouldn’t expect anything else, you have a history of hiding under the duvet when the going gets tough.

        “I can’t be bothered with you anymore, as you’re predictable, boring and frankly as useful as a fart in a spacesuit.”
        Can we hold you to that, I guess time will reveal whether you are a man of your word.

  4. Head down arse up long road ahead to 2022, impossible to underestimate how low nasties will go to stay in power
    My worry is we are not great at defending ourselves, best form of defence is attack, be proud of our history,
    Safest country in Europe for the Jewish community thanks to JC and Labour movement
    Get retaliation in first and suspend Pantomime Dame like now, she will take a lot with her, saves us deselecting them

  5. Bringing energy home: Labour’s plan for publicly owned energy networks
    Foreword, Rebecca Long Bailey
    The UK stands on the cusp of a Green Industrial Revolution.
    The Green Industrial Revolution will be as transformative as the first Industrial Revolution, but led by Labour, it will be anchored in dignity at work, social justice, equality and international solidarity. Furthermore, its central objective will be tackling the climate crisis at the scale and pace that science determines is necessary to avoid dangerous levels of global warming.
    But we cannot just sit back and wait. Key to ushering in the Green Industrial Revolution, and the tremendous economic opportunities that come with it, will be the role of government in guaranteeing the right infrastructure is in place.
    The energy sector is central to the UK’s decarbonisation process. Yet energy networks are poorly placed to respond to the task at hand.
    Since Thatcher’s wave of privatisations, energy network companies have been able to post huge profit margins, overcharging customers to the order of billions of pounds, and failing to invest properly in infrastructure needed to accommodate the transition to renewable energy.
    Though it is possible to identify specific regulatory failings, the truth is that the current system, in which natural monopolies are run for private profit, puts regulators and, by extension the public, at a structural disadvantage. Gaming and profiteering are not remediable glitches with the current system – they are intrinsic too it. Given the challenges facing the energy system, the status quo is no longer tenable.
    In public hands, we can begin to address what is referred to as a ‘trilemma’ – providing energy that is low carbon, that is affordable, and that is secure. Energy networks that are owned by the public and responsive to the public interest will be able to prioritise tackling climate change, fuel poverty and security of supply over profit extraction, while working with energy unions to support energy workers through the transition.
    That is why Labour is committed to bringing energy networks back into public ownership. This paper sets out in brief how we intend to do that, and I warmly welcome its publication.

    https://www.labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Bringing-Energy-Home-2019.pdf

    • So annoying trying to read pdf’s designed as leaflets and copied double-page with no options.
      Excellent foreword and public ownwership can’t come soon enough.
      Left to the capitalists it’d never get done and electricity would become scarce and unaffordable.

      • If your browser doesn’t give you the option of single page and fit to screen then you could try downloading / saving the pdf document then open with Acrobat Reader you will find that this gives you have full control on the layout which will make it a lot easier to read.

  6. Two pages appear to have been scanned as one, so in landscape format, and the header and tailer are the same size scanned in portrait.
    I don’t remember Acrobat ever being able to separate two pages scanned as one like that, or dealing with portrait and landscape seamlessly in the same document.
    I don’t use it much though and I’m often wrong – but Adobe writes the worst software (Photoshop Creative Suite and Lightroom 3 back when you could buy them)
    Oh – and flash player.

    • Separating the pages would be fiddly. I’ve got a fairly wide monitor because I do a lot of photography, but at 100% the document seems readable with two complete pages on the screen – and wide margins on either side. ….??

      • 13″ Toughbook, no room for a desktop on the boat.
        No room for the deVere 504 or the Sinars, Cambo, Mamiyas, Nikons or Jobo’s either, sadly.
        It’s OK though, cos I can’t see well enough to use them worth a damn anymore anyway 🙂

      • Sorry about that. Coffin dodging has some bastard downsides.

        Grandma and sucked eggs – but have you looked at the magnifying function of the browser, and whether that gives a better work-around? I’ve got a 13″ laptop at the moment – and it isn’t perfect (you have to dodge about) – but it sort of works.

      • Hi, thanks RH but been using Ctrl+-0 forever.
        I’d forgotten though that my Toughbooks have a loupe function 🙂
        🙁 duh, just tried it and it’s too jerky to be useful.
        Yeah, getting old’s a bitch but it still beats the shit out of the alternative ‘~’

  7. Find myself wondering if the Tories are actually lower than this due to polling bias.

    Can’t see it recovering, as they’ve lost their “Heir to Blair” and there isn’t really anyone else who can appeal broadly enough.

    Oh, and not following through on their promise.

  8. ‘Interesting’ article on the JVL website, re-tweeted from Buzzfeed.

    https://www.jewishvoiceforlabour.org.uk/blog/corbyn-wanted-action-on-antisemitism-but-was-held-back-by-bureaucracy/

    ‘Interesting’ – because its from Jon Lansman and, whilst apparently defending Corbyn’s office and the new disciplinary regime, actually also takes the opportunity to perpetuate the myths about Livingstone’s alleged ‘antisemitism’ (whose arguments about the roots of zionism were actually validated by Moshe Machover).

    It is noticeable that the role of the JLM isn’t examined in any critical depth.

      • I’d suggest citing one of those other sites then – this one thanked Action Direct Report for the article.
        fpp.co.uk is David Irving’s website – David Irving the famously jailed Holocaust denier.

      • Oh – Livinstone’s resignation was a set-up. He said nothing that wasn’t verifiable, even if it was a bit cack-handed in its expression.

        But the most comprehensive – and historically respectable – analysis is that by Moshe Machover, who was accused in the same way, but had the academic heft to stuff his accusers – and was reinstated.

        I haven’t got the article to hand where he exhaustively details the history of zionism and the fascists in the 1930s (which was why he was targeted for speaking uncomfortable historical truth) – but it can be found on the internet. It is worth a read, since it comes from a reputable academic who is jewish.

        The BoD nexus really didn’t like the revelation of the fact that their predecessors in the early 20th century were very much opposed to Zionism because they saw it as endorsing antisemitic ideas.

  9. Glad to see that Labour is in effect firmly committed to a public vote – even if it’s hidden away in the election literature.

    Since the Tories won’t change their ‘bad deal’ in any meaningful way, and a general election isn’t going to happen (the two alternatives), the path should be clear for the obvious to happen.

    I hope no-one here will be screaming ‘betrayal’ at the Party in order to assist Farago and the Tories. 🙂

  10. Gauke putting a gloss on of re-nationalising the failed privatised probation services:
    We’re “building on” [the disaster of privatisation] by returning to public provision.

    BBC ‘interviewing’ some talking head from National Grid PLC on why Labour’s re-nationalisation plan was ‘a bad thing’ just let him blather on about business needing investors and investors needing a return.
    She didn’t even ask for the figures on dividends vs. infrastructure spending – pretty basic I’d have thought – journalism 101.
    Fundamental to the issue of private vs. public ownership of utilities.

    • Usual suspects stuff. Discount it.

      Let’s face it – if the Tories can face down the fact that they keep Grayling in post, they aren’t going to flinch at spouting daily bollocks.

      • Yeah but even the BBC point and giggle when he walks by now.

  11. Things don’t seem to be going too well for Theresa at the moment. Even the Telegraph and Camilla Tominey have abandoned her.

    Click on the link the photographs tell their own story.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/17/glum-faces-speech-empty-room-hurried-exit-theresa-mays-campaign/

    Glum faces, a speech to an empty room and a hurried exit as Theresa May’s campaign turns into a wake

    Mrs May giving her first – and one suspects only – speech to promote the Tories’ campaign Credit: Reuters/AFP
    Camilla Tominey, Associate Editor Harry Yorke, Political Correspondent
    17 May 2019 • 8:18pm
    As photographs go, it told a thousand words about the beleaguered state of a premiership on the brink. If Theresa May had hoped her unannounced appearance in Bristol would be a pleasant surprise for Tory MEP candidates, then they had a funny way of showing it.
    With the Brexit Party riding high in the polls and Mrs May under growing pressure to set a timetable for her departure, the glum look on the candidates’ faces appeared to suggest that they would rather the Prime Minister was anywhere else but in their constituency on Friday.
    Six days out from the European Parliament elections and the scene was more akin to a wake than a political rally as Mrs May scarcely managed a smile herself as she…

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