‘Poll of polls’ graph shows record Labour surge to biggest GE lead since 2014 – enough for Commons majority

Average of polls shows Labour ahead by six percent – best in five years and big enough for a clear parliamentary majority
Vote being cast at a polling station

A new graph of average ‘Westminster voting intention’ polling figures for the last two months shows Labour turning a Tory lead of almost eight points in March to a Labour lead of six points:

Graphic: Matt Thomas (@Trickyjabs)

As the chart’s creator Matt Thomas observed:

Labour now has a 6% lead in GE poll of polls over the Tories. Their highest lead since Feb 2014.

Two months ago the Tories were leading by 7.6%. This is a record polling swing outside of a GE campaign.

But that’s not all. The latest polls suggest that if a general election was held now, Labour would win a convincing majority in the House of Commons – wiping out some of the Tories’ best-known names in the process:


The concerted efforts of mainstream media and anti-Labour mouthpieces both inside and outside the party have persuaded some Labour activists that things are going badly under Jeremy Corbyn – a shameless return to the pre-2017 narrative.

But the numbers show that in spite of the complexity and challenges of the current situation, with the appalling rise of the far-right fuelled by the reckless arrogance of many centrists, Corbyn’s Labour is steering a course for the good of – and that appeals to – the many.

There’s certainly no room for complacency – Labour led in 2014 but lost the 2015 general election under Miliband. But there’s also neither room nor cause for despair. Labour are on course for government – and no MSM water-muddying should be allowed to divert or detract from that fact.

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  1. Just how good would it be if those vile Tories named by Mr Bienkov actually lost their seats. Must get to Chingford this weekend to help try and ensure the odious Duncan Smith is ousted.

    1. But as long as there’s gobshites like the other two europhile divs on here, permanently carrying on like the utter knobheads watson, screeching, hodge, starmer et al, there’s the possibility that some of those toerags might just cling on.

      I know where my finger’s gonna point if they do…

  2. With all my heart I want these polls to be right and that we are on course for a Corbyn led Labour government but I urge caution. I am old enough to remember the Kinnock fiasco when he was carried shoulder high before the polls closed on election night. His arrogance and over confidence cost us that election in my opinion.
    We must learn from his mistake ,take nothing for granted and keep working away , quietly ,day in day out , for a labour government that so many people desperately need.

    1. His stupid US-style jamboree and his forced exultation on stage was embarrassing for the grown-ups among us but it was the S*n’s ‘lights out’ front page that killed us I think.
      Yeah, let’s not do that again.

  3. Earlier today I checked out the wikipedia list of polling results to see if any new ones had been added, and two new polls had been added in the past couple of days. What was interesting is that despite the fact they were conducted at more-or-less the same time, one of them had the Brexit Party on 10%, and the other had them on 20%, which is rather a big difference, to say the least. And one had Change UK on 7% and the other had them on 1%, and there’s also a big difference in the Tory percentage and also the LP percentage:


    1. Allan, interesting observation. My guess is that it is because the polling companies always finesse their raw data to take account of the skewing that results from having a small sample. Those rely on things like previous voting patterns. They don’t have those for new parties so their algorithms will be more at variance. It makes the polls currently even less reliable than usual.

  4. Well, one thing is sure – there’s no general election on the horizon.

    But this is statistically incredibly thin gruel – related to the current collapse of the Tory vote and its leakage to Farago.

    The most noticeable feature for Labour is that it’s current support (looking at the moving average) is at an extremely low level (and heading south) – and that this was reflected in a loss of seats at local level only recently – when gains should have been made.

    Could do better? Certainly needs to.

    I’m all in favour of optimism – but not castles in the air.

  5. Was thinking what the next slur or smear will be and how long it’ll take MSM to amplify it. Then up popped Laura lickspittle with her ‘blistering’ attack on Corbyn from former Labour Minister. It dawned me, we’ve been here so many times and couldn’t be bothered with it. Wonder if that’s happening with these repetitive smears in general. MSM don’t seem capable of anything else and it’s so predictable now.

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