Wide range of polls show big swings to Labour in the last month
Last month the Establishment media made much of polls supposedly showing the Tories with a significant lead over Labour in ‘Westminster voting intention’ – in ‘outlier’ YouGov’s case suggesting a lead of eleven percent.
But in the last month, many of the same polling companies have showed large Labour gains of as much as twelve percent – as the list below of net gains and current position versus the Tories according to each company shows:
Opinium: 6% gain (level)
YouGov: 9% (2 points behind)
Survation: 8% (4 points ahead)
Deltapoll: 12% (5 points ahead)
Individual polling companies vary in their methodology and results, with Survation by far the most accurate in 2017 – but every result shows only one direction of travel and to a significant degree, over a period in which quitter MPs, Establishment media and others have done everything to undermine Labour electorally.
SKWAWKBOX comment:
Amid a growing consensus – even among many ‘mainstream’ commentators – that a general election is the only way out of the Tory-created Brexit chaos, the latest trend across so many polls will send a chill down the spine of the Tories and the Establishment.
But even Tory MPs – and such hardline supporters as Spectator associate editor Toby Young on Sky News on Saturday evening – expect the result to be a disaster for the Conservatives. These polls – without the boost to Labour that general election media rules brings – support their expectation.
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Brexit was the only thing holding the Tories together. They have failed to deliver and are paying the price.
Government is a matter of trust. Labour must not repeat the Tory failure to deliver the referendum result that was decided by 17.4 million voters.
If it does refuse to respect the result it will lose the next election and it will deserve to lose because it will have proved it could not be trusted.
We have only just started to rebuild trust after Iraq. To lose it again by failing to respect democracy would wipe out the Labour Party as a political force in the UK.
Contrary to what Barry Gardiner said, Labour as far as the members and Labour voters are concerned IS a remain Party. Therefore if we propose any form of Brexit, which as we know will be detrimental to the well being of the country and those who can least withstand it, Labour will undoubtedly lose any forthcoming GE.
Given the claim and counter-claim, it might be an idea to actually ask the grass roots about policy on this. Or would that be too radical for our grassroots-oriented Party? Or is it business as usual?
Internal Affairs 31/03/2019 at 2:56 am
Your desperation is showing
Wasn’t that another another occasion when Labour ignored the wishes of its members and voters and also ignored the largest protest march in this country’s history. Why would they want to repeat that mistake especially when every single poll and survey indicates that the electorate has changed its mind. FFS even ardent Leave areas like Grimsby have changed their mind and are now polling 66% in favour of Remain.
So you think the views of a few hundred thousand Labour members are more important than 17.4 million votes?
You think you are worth more than other people?
Labour is a party of equality. Self important patronising snobs like you belong in the Tory party, not Labour.
I’ve finally managed to find a section of the electorate who’s majority view agrees with yours
Leave 68%
Remain 26%
Table 36 column h of the latest (only?) Leave Means Leave commissioned poll
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Leave-Means-Leave_Brexit-Poll_March-2019_updated.pdf
Don’t be daft. It’s about the views of the *whole* of the electorate – which need desperately to be properly examined in a new referendum now that actuality has balanced out the Tory propaganda of the MSM.
“Self important patronising snobs like you belong in the Tory party, not Labour.”
Being a twat by making statements like that really isn’t the mark of a dedicated Labour voter.
The current state of parliament at present is in many ways reminiscent of the rush to the Iraq invasion despite opposition by those less subjugated by propaganda.
“honouring the referendum’ = ‘weapons of mass destruction”. Both deceitful.
My apologies for interjecting, but here is a gross deception perpetrated by the Sun.
I just came across this Sun Article from September 5th last year with the headline:
‘TIDE OF HATE Anti-Semitism in Britain has DOUBLED following Labour racism scandal….’
In the article it says how the number of recorded incidents of anti-semitism in 2017 – ie 1,382 – have doubled compared to 2011, 2012, when the number of recorded incidents were 586 and 640 respectively. Anyway, so I then went to the CST website to check out the figure for 2014 – which of course one would have thought would be the obvious year to make any comparisons with – and as I suspected, the reason the Sun DIDN’T is because it was significantly higher – ie 1,182
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7184924/anti-semitism-britain-doubles-labour-corbyn/
2014 – That was when Ed Milliband was in charge, a person of Jewish heritage who is Pro Palestinian (the wrong kind of Jew?).
If one looks at the figures for support from the Jewish community there was a significant 10%+ drop in the percentage of Jewish support for Labour when Ed became leader. This represented a drop of >30% in Jewish support for Labour. This so called anti-Semitism crisis has always been about politics (Zionism) rather than religion
Even if the result was based/caused by criminal breaches of election laws which are now further investigated, Internal Affairs? How can Lab Party afford to be seen to condone law breaking ? No end justifies the means.
Alternatively you could ask “how can labour be seen to condone law breaking” by supporting Brexit because the referendum result in support of it was “based/caused by criminal breaches of election law”. Your line of argument works both ways.
Anyway I presume Article 50 would be formally repealed by Parliament rather than just ignored so no law would be broken. The requirement to Brexit would be lawfully set aside not simply ignored. Think of how many laws have been repealed over the years. We don’t accuse people of law breaking because they are no longer doing something that they were once required to do by statute .
If you don’t accept democratic results you aren’t a democrat. You are flirting with fascism.
That is merely a matter of political definition.
The only democratic choice is to ask the electorate, if on the basis of the consequences which are now clearer than they were three years ago, do you wish to keep to your original decision?
‘Democratic vote’? Argue for Brexit – but there is no argument for a 37% vote in favour in a Tory consultative referendum that is now three years old and bent and addled from every perpective. Especially if the populace is now of a different persuasion. Unless you believe in weird religion.
It is worth bearing in mind that because of illegality there were over 200,000 petitions to the High Court to overturn the 2016 Referendum result .
In Dec 2016 the Supreme Court ruled that they couldn’t rule on this because the Brexit referendum was only advisory and therefore fell outside their remit.
I think a significant of non politicised voters over the past two years would simply not say they’d sippsup Labour, not because of Corbyn nor the policies (we know the latter are hugely popular), but because they are under the impression the party is riddled with infighting and back stabbing, which is really off putting. Non that the most vocal critics are gone, the party seems to have more unity.
Also, the Tories’ are so incompetent that even Kuensberg is not able anymore to put a positive spin in it.
Brexit has split the Tory Party & will split the Labour Party if it ‘betrays’ its election manifesto promise to honour the referendum result. The only Party that it has not affected is the Lib Dems. I said yes, but I meant no & I have a right to change my mind!
Steve, we have an impass, be honest, those who do not want the public to express an up to date opinion in another vote are mainly Leavers and those who do want to take the only democratic route to solving the impass are mainly Remainers.
Whatever the case, democracy cannot be destroyed with more democracy.
That may be the reason wy there is a BIG SWING to Labour, Because we are getting rid of the trash Imagine how far ahead we will be when Tom Tit (Watson) goes.
We won’t clearly now about any swing to Labour until the end of April. The one thing you can be sure of – Watson will not be the issue. Either way: most electors wouldn’t be able to identify him, and won’t give a toss about this sort of internal wrangling.
It will be the overall narrative as they see it that will count.
In the 2016 referendum, 69.9 per cent of voters in North East Lincolnshire said they wanted to leave the EU, making the area one of the top ten in the country to back Brexit.
Even Grimsby has changed its mind
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain in the EU 66%
Leave the EU 34%
What Brexit should we have?
Theresa May’s negotiated Brexit deal 4%
No deal Brexit 34%
Brexit with a customs union 3%
I want us to remain in the EU 59%
https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/vote-now-people-grimsby-still-2701101
Steve, you know my view on Brexit but what do you think of the Grimsby Telegraph poll’s organisation?
I wanted to see if the numbers you posted had shifted but they don’t appear on screen until you click on one of the choices – and “Remain in the EU” was at the top.
After clicking on it the numbers appeared but so did “Thanks for your vote” – I don’t remember ever seeing a poll so blatantly tainted.
I admit it’s possible that there was a “view results” button that I missed – but if I did so did many others. I first looked on my phone and the site’s mobile version was so broken I moved to the laptop – a single click vote with no check for resident status/email/name/age – nothing.
I don’t find it a credible poll whatever the result, sorry.
… which is another argument for an actual re-run – properly structured and properly inclusive – and properly safeguarded, given the farce that was the last and the even bigger farce that has been the sequel.
The hanging on to the tattered remnant of that escapade in Tory clowning is now more stupid than ever.
It’s not a welcome idea – but it’s the only way out of this shit-show.
Sorry but I think you trying to something out of nothing. FFS – Let’s get a sense of perspective here. It’s a local newspaper’s readership poll containing all of 2 very straightforward questions. AdHoc polls by newspapers frequently adopt a policy of hiding the results until you’ve cast your vote. There are obviously arguments on both sides about the possible influence of seeing how others voted.
You claim that Remain being the first option results in some sort of bias yet ignore the fact that the top choice in the second question was the last option (I want to stay in the EU).
I’ve just looked at the current results and the have shifted slightly
.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
thanks for your vote
Remain in the EU 68%
Leave the EU 32%
Which is very close to a complete reversal of the 2016 result for North East Lincolnshire which were Leave 69.9% Remain 30.1%
What Brexit should we have?
thanks for your vote
Theresa May’s negotiated Brexit deal 4%
No deal Brexit 32%
Brexit with a customs union 3%
I want us to remain in the EU 61%
Steve, I only read local newspapers if someone links to something and I don’t respond to polls so I’m happy to take your word for what’s usual.
I was just surprised that at 140 miles from Grimsby I was able to vote in a local poll by accident without even a confirmatory click.
Seems odd that strongly leave has turned into strongly remain without the fact being emblazoned all over the MSM but I could have missed that too.
A Twitter search a minute ago showed FBPE remainers sharing the fact of that Grimsby poll with each other – I don’t know how many of them are still active but the possibility of them intentionally distorting the result must exist surely?
Time will tell I guess.
———————————————————————————-
My Harikiri Attempt Missed #FBPE
@elbapo
Mar 30
anyone from Grimsby want to take part in a nice remain/leave poll?
———————————————————————————–
I must admit I’m puzzled why you are so fixated on this. I don’t find it in the least bit surprising that you were able to register your vote as I’ve little doubt that a local newspaper was expecting to have a mainly local readership and response. Also I don’t think that twitter will have had much impact, the poll was mentioned on BBC1 Sunday Politics (Yorks & Lincs) today so I would have thought that this would have given Leave advocates more than enough time to register their vote over the last few hours if they felt so inclined. I looked at the result immediately after it was mentioned on the BBC and it has hardly shifted since then.
Not in the least fixated Steve – but when I see results off the curve in any field my instinct is to question them.
That’s it.
My interest had already waned an hour ago 🙂
OK – Fair enough 😊
Looks like project fear to me
What is it that you think “looks project like fear” to you.
Polls.
There was a time when editors wouldn’t have touched a poll. On account of them being able to show whatever you want them to show.
So, I’m off to poll 100 remainers about their brexit desires. Wonder what the results will be?
Try to remember that 23/6/16, polls that morning said remain would win 55%. What actually happened?
Never voting labour again 31/03/2019 at 4:54 pm
You are desperately clinging onto straws.
Well to me the poll I’ve mentioned appears to be simple and straightforward enough. There are only 2 questions. Perhaps you could point out where the bias is in this particular poll.
It is also significant that the ‘Leave Means Leave’ commissioned poll (just a few days ago) gave a result of 45% Remain and 39% Leave. Are you seriously suggesting that LML sabotaged or influenced their own poll to produce this result.
Do you have a problem making decisions? Well Yes & No, but if in doubt I’ll ask ‘Uncle Tom’ Watson & gain the wisdom of his advice. Better Tom than Jeremy eh? Too much cat & mouse!
Mail on Sunday tells an ‘Anti-Semitism’ Whopper!
The Mail on Sunday have an article today about a meeting held last Monday in support of Jackie Walker, the day before her disciplinary hearing, and at which Ken Livingstone spoke, and the Mail tells a gargantuan Goebbels-type Big Lie, and being totally fascist as the Mail IS, their little fascist joke is that they include the falsehood in a line that Ken actually DID say about the media spreading lie after lie after lie. Here’s the relevant piece from the Mail article:
The former Mayor of London continued: ‘It’s not anti-Semitic to hate the Jews of Israel and you can’t have a proper functioning democracy in a world in which the media, whether it’s the press or internet, can just spread lie after lie after lie…..’
(Ends)
And here’s what Ken actually said (at which point he was talking about John Mann’s attack on him):
“He [John Mann] starts shouting in my face that I’m a Nazi apologist. He then goes on television and says that I said Hitler was a Zionist. How can a man who loathes Jews [Hitler] be a Zionist? But because it was all filmed on telly, it went global. And it wasn’t just that, soon you could see it all over on the internet that I said, ‘Jews are like Nazis’ and ‘It’s not anti-Semitic to hate Jews of Israel.’
You can’t have a proper functioning democracy in a world in which the media can spread lie after lie after lie.”
(Ends)
As I’ve said before, the Nazi-loving Mail hasn’t changed one bit since the 1930s!
NB The meeting last Monday was organised by Labour Against the Witch-hunt, who actually sent a recording of Ken’s speech to the Mail. but what do the fascists at the Mail care.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6868849/Ken-Livingstone-says-Labour-anti-Semitism-row-lies-smears-peddled-ghastly-Blairites.html
And here’s the reaction to the Big Lie from Labour Against the Witch-hunt:
http://www.labouragainstthewitchhunt.org/
The Daily Mail’s circulation is falling, its hatred, racism and bigotry are well known and nobody with an ounce of sense believes a word it publishes. Don’t give this vile example of the gutter press oxygen.
Don’t be naive, smartboy, : the Daily Bile spreads it amongst a large number of people. Every day. Every week. And a fair proportion do believe it.
A depressing pastime whilst waiting in a supermarket queue is to see how many are imbibing the Sun and Mail poison by choice
Thanks for exposing their lies.
Steve: Do you have a link to the article you’ve linked to before about the Tory Party not having any jurisdiction over its members?
Allan Howard 31/03/2019 at 2:58 pm
I’m unsure if this is the link you were asking about but this is what the Tories say on their own website. You will note that their is absolutely no mention of it being applicable to ordinary members. At the time that (Dec17) the Tories published this code Theresa May challenged JC in the HofC to adopt this code for the Labour Party, he missed a trick there.
Who is the code of conduct for?
This Code of Conduct is for anyone who formally represents the Party as an elected or appointed official. This includes, but is not limited to: Members of Parliament, Peers, Members of the European Parliament, Members of the Scottish Parliament, Members of the Welsh Assembly, Members of the Greater London Assembly, Police & Crime Commissioners, elected Mayors, Councillors and Association, area, regional, and national Party officers. The Conservative Party Board formally adopted the Code of Conduct in December 2017.
Is this what you were requesting.
Oops – I forgot the link
https://www.conservatives.com/codeofconduct
Yes, exactly. Cheers Steve.
Allan Howard 31/03/2019 at 3:42 pm
You may also notice that there is absolutely no mention of adopting the ‘Examples’
which should be interpreted as fully adopting the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition of anti-Semitism which the Conservative Party adopted in December 2016
Allan Howard 31/03/2019 at 3:42 pm
You may also find this useful
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Definition_of_Antisemitism#Other_political_parties
n July 2018, the Conservative Party claimed it had adopted the definition in full. However, at the time their code of conduct approved in December 2017, which only governs the behavior of anyone representing the Party as an elected or appointed official or office-holder, didn’t mention antisemitism or specify a definition of it. Since then their code has been amended to include an interpretive annexe on discrimination, which does refer to the IHRA definition and says it was adopted in December 2016 (the date the Conservative government adopted the definition).[117][118][119]
Yes, there is absolutely no doubt that Tory members are not beholden to their Code of Conduct. Interestingly – given what I’ve said in a couple of other threads about any complaints or allegations of A/S made to the LP/NEC should be referred to the police AND dealt with by the police, and the police only – I just came across the following point made in relation to the Tory code of conduct (and it’s the very FIRST point that’s made):
‘Criminal behaviour should be dealt with by the police. Any confidential hotline should be manned by a solicitor who can tell the caller whether their complaint falls into this category. If so, the party should have no further dealings in the matter.’
http://copov.blogspot.com/2017/11/code-of-conduct-for-conservative-party.html
This should apply to LP members and – except in cases where hatred expressed is glaringly obvious to everyone – no-one should be suspended and the person concerned only expelled from the LP if convicted of rascist abuse – ie anti-semitism.
smartboy: Since when is exposing their lies and falsehoods giving their lies and falsehoods oxygen? The exact opposite surely.
Most of the comments here relate to Brexit and only a couple address the other issues – the in fighting and the exiting of MPs who are Labour in name only.
I think that the vast majority of ordinary decent people care a lot less about Brexit and in fighting than they do about about issues like homelessness food banks and sick and disabled people being degraded by a “Welfare” system that is condemning them to abject poverty and misery and in some cases death, an NHS in crisis, Public Services and Education falling apart.
Many people see the attacks on Jeremy Corbyn by a few Labour MPs and so called Labour “grandees” as attacks on his policies which will address these issues, return us to our founding principles and which represent total rejection of New Labour. The Tory establishment too (including the MSM) try to discredit Jeremy for the same reasons.
But the never ending smear campaign against Jeremy Corbyn isn’t working. People aren’t stupid and are fully aware of the disgusting self interested bias of the incompetent Tories, a handful of members of the PLP and the MSM, in particular the political commentators in the BBC who are on 6 figure salaries and who will be directly affected by our Taxation proposals .
For all of these reasons we are now ahead in the polls. Tory chaos in respect of Brexit is another reason but it is a long way from being the only one.
The Tories know they face a heavy defeat if there is an early general election so the chances of them voting for one is zero. However this will give us time to have genuine Labour candidates in place for a 2022 election.
As I’ve said on a number of occasions, but for the ongoing Smear Campaign against Jeremy and the left, the LP would be ten, fifteen, twenty points or more ahead of the Tories AND the smearers and saboteurs must be scratching their collective head wondering how on Earth it is that Labour are still neck and neck in the polls:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
You’re right – the general smear campaign and the ‘antisemitism’ scam have made a significant difference.
The thing that has to be remembered is that ‘significant’ influence – in terms of propaganda – doesn’t have to be large, as the original Brexit vote proved, following the massive MSM campaign.
Brexit is also relevant to the current polling situation,m since it has split both parties and the electorate, confounding any analysis based on past experience.
There is also the self-inflicted wound amongst a large body of essentially sympathetic ‘Remain’ electors who have the perception of its policy being overshadowed by the Tories and , at best, ambiguous, and at worst, contrary to their views.
So this is why Tom Watson is saying a General Election is inconceivable…
He’s about as much use as a cock flavoured lollipop…
You appear to be being quite judgemental about other people’s taste preferences. Each to their own.
You pop it in your cakehole then…
I’m not in a strong position to criticise others for offensive posts so I won’t.
At least you’re not a Labour member so no possibility of being required to undergo LGBT awareness/protected characteristic training to remain a member.
What was acceptable ten years ago is less so today.
Ask me how many *£&#s I give…
In my house I have one person who identifies as pansexual, and another who is gay. They aren’t bothered by what I say.
It’s almost like you’re both defending Watson. Or have an agenda against me because you don’t like my name or what I write.
Which one is it?
Can’t say I approve but I don’t care how much you have to pay for sex.
Had a friend once tell me she kept her sex pest landlord at bay by telling him she was gay.
Speaking for myself I don’t like your nom-de-bollocks or the outpourings of your twisted Kippersonality.
Watson? pfft.
Just looking at the polls.
I’m afraid Sqwawkbox is over-egging it.
There is evidence of a welcome swing back to Labour, but it isn’t ‘massive’ when you look at the overall pattern. The overall position is optimistically about level-pegging, taking into account margins of error, and the instability of public opinion.
It’s good news that the Tory lead is evidently diminishing, but it ain’t a surge.
The really bad news would be if the Tories hadn’t taken a hit after the shit-shambles of the past weeks.
The next month will be crucial.
Talking down Labour’s lead in several polls shows just how much you hate Labour.
You must be a Tory or Lib Dem.
God only knows why you come here.
I think you need to address your own internal affairs. They are in a shambolic state if you think that analysis (which can be argued with) is ‘talking down Labour’s lead’.
I’m afraid that cheering at every odd poll that shows a Labour lead and booing at every one that does the opposite is plain dim – not a mark of either intelligence or Party loyalty.
Worth noting also, if you’re keen on polls, that a compilation of the recent ones over the last month show a 54-46% majority in favour of staying in the EU.
Obviously – time for a new referendum.
Your vote counts for nothing…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-remain-vote-leave-live-latest-who-will-win-results-populus-a7097261.html
Battered old hat.
Time for a replacement to reflect the wider electorate
polls show increase in potential labour vote – launch project fear
and smear !
Yes not looking too bad for Labour.
Just read excellent latest New Left Review piece on China and how it is argued Neo-Liberalisn has to an extent captured China’s economy although it is still more of state controlled market.
Instead of individualism as liberation Connery argues that they have had the promotion of consumption and selfishness.
Perhaps Labour here (as an example too) needs to look at shorter working weeks and retirement back to 65 (the capitalists are attempting to get more labour over more years from working people) so with no loss of pay we should have more time to live, to play sports, travel, see films, the theatre, attend talks, spend time with friends & family, excercise etc – Labour could have some real aces up their sleeve to help them win and which really benefit working people.
Oh on a roll, helping Labour in a local election campaign and won the ‘Who can get voters to take the most Labour posters’ friendly competition two sessions in a row!
Solidarity!
“Latest New Left Review piece on China and how it is argued Neo-Liberalisn has to an extent captured China’s economy.”
F.me. That counts as ‘news’??? China has been pursuing the capitalist route for yonks. The difference is only the label given to the 1% i.e. state apparatchiks.
‘State’ ownership and control isn’t a magic bullet, and doesn’t necessarily result in the socialisation of resources.