Wide range of polls show big swings to Labour in the last month
Last month the Establishment media made much of polls supposedly showing the Tories with a significant lead over Labour in ‘Westminster voting intention’ – in ‘outlier’ YouGov’s case suggesting a lead of eleven percent.
But in the last month, many of the same polling companies have showed large Labour gains of as much as twelve percent – as the list below of net gains and current position versus the Tories according to each company shows:
Opinium: 6% gain (level)
YouGov: 9% (2 points behind)
Survation: 8% (4 points ahead)
Deltapoll: 12% (5 points ahead)
Individual polling companies vary in their methodology and results, with Survation by far the most accurate in 2017 – but every result shows only one direction of travel and to a significant degree, over a period in which quitter MPs, Establishment media and others have done everything to undermine Labour electorally.
Amid a growing consensus – even among many ‘mainstream’ commentators – that a general election is the only way out of the Tory-created Brexit chaos, the latest trend across so many polls will send a chill down the spine of the Tories and the Establishment.
But even Tory MPs – and such hardline supporters as Spectator associate editor Toby Young on Sky News on Saturday evening – expect the result to be a disaster for the Conservatives. These polls – without the boost to Labour that general election media rules brings – support their expectation.
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