Tories fall to lowest polling for 3 years while Labour surges amid positive campaigning shift

Most accurate pollster in 2017 election gives Labour a 4-point lead

Survation, by far the most accurate pollster in the 2017 general election, has published its latest polling of Westminster polling intention:

The Tories’ 35% figure – which matches by the latest YouGov poll – is their lowest in around three years. Labour is the only party to have gained more than one percent compared to the previous Survation poll.

Less than two years ago, the Tories were polling at 50%.

Recent polls suggested the Tories led by as much as ten percent – and although these always looked like outliers, a significant proportion of Labour’s polling improvement may well be connected with an improved focus of online and local Labour activists on positive campaigning and a wider refusal to engage with the huge amount of negative trolling employed across all media by a politically-bankrupt right.

SKWAWKBOX comment:

Of course, a substantial renewed Labour polling lead is usually followed by a new attack or smear, so Labour supporters would be well advised to continue to apply the principles shown in the preceding paragraph.

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23 responses to “Tories fall to lowest polling for 3 years while Labour surges amid positive campaigning shift

  1. One swallow doesn’t … etc. – but a welcome indicator, even if only a one-off.

    If indicative, it looks like Labour being more practically questioning of the rush to Brexit (and, hopefully, Brexit itself), and distinguishing itself more clearly from the Tories is, indeed, having a positive effect on its poll ratings.

    • More nonsense from our resident obsessive Remainer Troll, RH. In fact the better polling is a triumph for Jeremy and his team’s very careful Brexit policy tactical tightrope walk to keep both Remainers and Leavers on board – whilst continuing to campaign on the NHS and Austerity generally with a positive Labour programme of solutions. If we’d adopted ANY of the stupid “People’s Vote” anti Brexit motions at the Liverpool Conference Labour would be dead in the water electorally by now.

      • jpenney 16/03/2019 at 3:40 pm

        Yet more tiresome insults from jpenney.

        You deserted the Labour Party for 25+ years to desperately search for a home for your own particular brand of Zionist socialism, including what you probably thought was a last desperate throw of the dice when you became a prominent founder member of Left Unity. Unfortunately Left Unity proved to be yet another abortive attempt to find your political agenda a home. Then after seeing Corbyn’s 2015 victory you seized the opportunity to advance your own narrow political agenda on the back of Corbyn’s success. Despite self evidently having zero respect for your fellow Labour Party or Momentum members you have wheedled your way into the Labour Party’s machinery by manoeuvring yourself into being a delegate for the people you appear to despise.

        Whilst your comments ostensibly appear to support JC you don’t actually appear to support anything he stands for.

        BUT why listen to me when you do it so much more eloquently yourself.
        https://www.leftfutures.org/2017/01/what-is-corbynism/#comment-252436
        “John Penney
        January 9, 2017 at 4:25 pm
        “What is Corbynism ? ” To me , sadly, as both a Momentum and Labour Party activist, “Corbynism” increasingly reminds me of one of those strange, gimmicky, automotive industry, current products , based on the marketing concept of “ Let’s try to grab a whole range of basically incompatible market segments with a bizarre “crossover model”. Hence the car industry has some strange products , part wannabee off roader (but never to leave the tarmac) , part style statement body styling swoopiness, part greenmobile statement (with a wee “hybrid” electric motor added on to pretend it’s saving fuel – and the planet). Unfortunately these bizarre mongrel vehicles actually do nothing well , and their overall purpose is unclear – other than to sell to the uncritical novelty seeker.
        And so with Jeremy himself , and in reflection of his contradictory personal “crossover styling” , the entire “Corbynist Left Surge “ and Momentum. Thus Jeremy (and his circle) has spent 40 years in a well-remunerated , undoubtedly very hard-working ,but utterly marginalised role as “ multi crossover, sometimes quasi revolutionary socialist , old soviet foreign policy international analysis adherent, quasi pacifist (on some issues) , supporter of “liberation struggles “, utter reformist, utter Labour party loyalist, moralistic liberal .”
        Yep, it’s an extraordinary mixture, and utterly incoherent. How can Corbyn seem to be a “pacifist “ yet have supported the IRA ‘s utterly non-socialist tactics, and liberation struggles ? How can Corbyn be in favour of Workers Rights and Gay Rights and Women’s Rights, yet for years have bought into all that pernicious “Axis of Resistance” nonsense, which led him , and the entire Stalinoid/Trot fusion “Stop the War ” grouping , which he chaired , to basically ignore the gross tyrannies of dictatorships like Iran, Libya, Syria and Iraq ? How can Jeremy be a “ radical socialist” , yet apparently have no intention of fighting to get Labour to adopt a radical Left Economic/political Programme ? The contradictions and questions raised are endless.
        The answer is that there is no internal coherence to “Corbynism”. He , and his tiny radical PLP Left colleagues simply navigated politically around the , often deeply contradictory, often “bee in the bonnet” political priorities and obsessions of a tiny, isolated, Far Left and radical liberal Left , largely middle class “bubble” for the 30 years of neoliberal hegemony. So far from any possible power, the contradictory nature of much of the policies proposed simply didn’t matter.
        But, fast forward to today, and Jeremy and “Corbynism “ has won an utterly unexpected (particularly by him) Leadership victory in 2015 – and repeated in 2016 , on a vague, radical Left reformist policy offer. A victory utterly unearned by anything Jeremy or the Labour Left have done in the last 30 years. A victory very much owed to the UK part of the European-wide post Austerity “Left Surge”, manifesting itself, due to the barrier to new Left Party formation of FPTP, and the extraordinary hubris of the Labour Right, in the by then profoundly corrupt , and politically bankrupt, Labour Party.
        This profound incoherence of “Corbynism” is both its short term strength, and its longer term terminal weakness. By being “all nice policy proposal ideas to all people” “Corbynism” , and Momentum, have mobilised extraordinary numbers of people around a wide set of vague “progressive “ policies. However, actually look at the policies that get approval on, for instance, the , now irrelevant, MXV site and it should be clear that few have any roots at all in the radically transformational socialist tradition. Most are saturated with a radical moralistic, middle class, liberalism, which criticises features of capitalism, but has no concept of a better society beyond the capitalist market. Many are saturated with self-absorbed “identity politics”, rather than any grounding in socialist class politics. And the entryist “Revolutionary Left” component of the “Corbyn Surge” and Momentum, have so degenerated over the last 30 years of isolation, into quasi religious cults, that, complacent in the constant repetition of their eternal Leninist verities and texts, they never actually participate at all in discussions and debate around the development of radical, Left (reformist) policies for Labour. Because as firm adherent/believers in the “Socialist Coming of Days” , when the working classes will, simultaneously overthrow capitalism globally , the only reason to be in Momentum and Labour, is to gain access its new recruits to divert to “The Revolutionary Party”.
        Two possible Left Futures for “Corbynism”.
        Unless Jeremy Corbyn and his “leadership circle” somehow break free of the impotent , incoherent, “posturing as politics” lifestyle leftiness of their entire previous political lives, and are prepared to fight the utterly intransigent Labour Right for the soul and machinery of the Party. Unless Jeremy and his circle are prepared to abandon the contradictory “moralistic liberalism” which leads them to, for instance support, unconditionally “Complete Freedom of Movement ,Globally” as a viable objective – in favour of support for Comprehensive state-led, Socialist Planning , of which UK Full Employment and forward labour supply planning would be a key component. Unless Jeremy is prepared to fight for Momentum to be won to solid socialist politics, rather than the middle class, radical liberalism, that currently dominates it. Unless Jeremy is prepared to firmly break with the disruptive “splitters and wreckers” of the quasi religious ultraleft sects: –
        Then , rather than the utterly unexpected, unpredicted, extraordinary 2015 “Corbyn Left Surge” being a manifestation of a genuine , long-term, radical Left political transformation of the previously utterly politically moribund neoliberal, Labour Party, it will be proven to have been nothing more significant than the temporary noises , and sometimes quite dramatic physical movements, often made by the decomposition gases within a dead body “

        What is the real reason you joined the Labour Party?

      • SteveH

        Ah, Left Futures. There’s a blast from the past! They folded pretty quick when the Skwawkbox took off, didn’t they?

        And a frightening memory for 2-year-old comments you have there, sir. Mr Penney comprehensively slapped down!

      • SteveH to jpenney “what is the real reason you joined the Labour Party?”

        After that exposure, is there any doubt? In fact is there any doubt why any dyed in the wool Zionist joins the Labour Party? They extol the virtues of Jeremy Corbyn them stab him in the back by recommending support of the JLM who despise him.

        If your MP recommends affiliation to the JLM get rid of them asap they are taking part in an active coup against Jeremy Corbyn.

      • ‘Out of the mouths of babes and sucklings’ … getting slagged off by Ha’penny is a compliment by any standards.

        As to the *substance* of the poll issue – it’s interesting how polls become ‘rubbish’ or ‘marvellous’ simply according to result. In the world of sanity and political reality, they are simply error-prone indicators; stating that seems just a statement of the bleedin’ obvious – as does the caveat to look at cumulative trends over a period.

        That reality produces foaming at the mouth of some peculiarly eccentric and shouty types tends to validate these simple basic facts. Especially when their record is one of spectacular and irrelevant delusion.

      • A strange set of posts from that duo of Trolls, RH and Jack T (probably the same person posting under two names) . I stand by everything in that old Left Futures post. The Left Liberal crap politics of too many of the “corbyn Wave” influx of members is THE key weakness of “Corbynism”. The utterly crap politics of RH and Jack T is more to do with them simply being divisive being Trolls however. The unbalanced obsession with “Zionism” exhibited by the , RH/Jack T , manic poster can only suggest that his anti Israel obsessiveness has now morphed into old style anti-Semitism. Nasty , crazy, stuff. By the way, Left Futures ceased activity as a discussion blog entirely unrelated to the appearance of Skwawkbox. It was killed off by its owner, Jon Lansman, because he decided it gave a platform to too many socialists critical, from the Left, of the direction under his control, of Momentum, and many of the tactical decisions of the Corbyn Leadership circle.

    • P.S – two terms that tend to confirmatory vacuiity :

      “Comprehensive state-led, Socialist Planning ”

      … means bugger all unless defined in practical detail : the state – as a nexus of power and control is quite capable of repressive exploitation as are private owners of capital.

      The term, historically, doesn’t have a good look.

      “Zionist socialism”

      An oxymoron if ever there was one – a contradiction in terms. Again indicating a power relationship that can’t be ‘socialist’. (See ‘Palestine’).

  2. Cue another smear campaign against Jeremy Corbyn – you know the Marxist, Stalinist, Trot, spy, pacifist , terrorist supporting, pro Russian,spendthrift, anti semite racist jam making allotment keeper who is supported by a cult of 300,000 dogs, scum, entryists, extremists, bullies and antisemites in the Labour party.
    You couldn’ty make it up!

    • My money says Hodge is working something up right now!

      It might’ve been commented on already, but has Tom Watson had a bit of a set-back? I’m wondering if his chance to oust Corbyn has gone already.

      His PPS (Parliamentary Private Secretary), who is also an MP, had to resign from the front bench in order to vote with her conscience the other day. (Does this mean he’s got to find someone else?) This might not have been particularly significant had the PPS in question not been, in fact, Ruth Smeeth. Which could explain a lot.

      When you have a CIA Protected Asset at your side, you’re a pretty formidable opponent!

      • timfrom 16/03/2019 at 5:58 pm

        Ruth Smeeth the one that falsely accused Marc Wadsworth of anti-Semitism. One could be forgiven for wondering if Tom Watson had a hand in that debacle.

      • Could John Bolton fill her boots? He can get any passport and hopefully give courses on waterboarding. It’s ok for him since he’s half walrus half something else. No offence to walruses or something elsers. Regards

  3. A good piece below on the so-called ‘People’s Vote’ and Labour. The author rightly says ‘the Party will pay a heavy price for prioritising Hampstead over Hartlepool’. In my neck of the woods it would be ‘beware privileging Canterbury over Chatham’ (and lots more of the poorer Kentish towns which have been Labour in the past but presently shun Labour).

    https://unherd.com/2019/03/labour-should-be-careful-what-it-wishes-for/

    • From your “good piece” of anti-Corbyn agitprop purporting to be about “doing Brexit proper.”

      “Labour folk supporting the idea of a second referendum should be careful what they wish for. What do they envisage would happen if Labour came to power under Corbyn? There is every likelihood that the formidable apparatus of the establishment, big business and the media included, will be turned against an incoming Corbyn government, just as it was against the fictional Harry Perkins administration.”

      Where’s he been for the last three years… “will be turned against…” FFS?
      Ref2 or not “The Establishment feat. Paul Embery” will leave no lie unsung to kill off any left wing government, whoever leads it – pretending that Brexit/no Brexit will change a damn thing in that regard is complete bollocks.

      Scheming pseudo-socialists hardly need bother trying to conceal their true purpose now they have Brexidiots to hide behind, do they?

    • That referenced bit of scribble is a classic in crap political analysis – so full of contradictions and misconceptions that it’s main use is to illustrate the vacuousness of the ‘Lexit’ cause.

      Dilettante Marxism writ large with its misconceptions about class (mistaking susceptibility to plutocratic propaganda to prescient political analysis on the basis of nothing but crude categorisations), logical and numerical ineptitude (a hung vote as the ‘peeple swill’) and argument that disappears up its own fundament (promulgating an argument that, in essence, denies the possibility of ever changing a political decision : Tories for Ever!).

      Socialism as isolated self-abuse.

      • Oh – and I note that the much derided YouGov polling has suddenly become flavour of the month! (In which case – if it’s model is so good, Labour is stuffed anyway)

  4. Shows that the smears and internal conflicts do work to keep Labour away from power.

    Only one week went in with a bit of focus on May’s Brexit failures and with the Labour dissenters shutting their gobs and Labour is back on top.

  5. Reckon stage 2 of the coup will be enacted any time now , can’t have any sniff of Labour leading under Corbyn can we ?

  6. Very welcome news from Survation. During a recent TV report on the Parliamentary Brexit shenanigans held in Westminster, a right-wing TV ‘journalist’ referred to Labour trailling 10 points behind the Tories when interviewing a Labour Party spokesperson. I did think at the time that this reference was very selective. Of course, the public got no information about its source or reliability in relation to other polls. Just goes to show how the ‘truth’ about political events is skewed by the MSM so that reality is ‘constructed’ to fall in with the requirements of the neo-liberal capitalist Establishment.

  7. Better being behind in the polls to stand any chance of winning. Check track record of pollsters as Cameron & May were so certain that us ‘Deplorables’ were insignificant. Believe Polls @ your peril.

  8. Damn your purity. We want a party that will fight for Socialism not a talking shop who pretend to know what us party people want!

  9. BREAKING NEWS —- WOW
    Speaker Bercow tells May she can’t have another vote on her deal until it is substantially different. No MV3 and No MV4

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