The so-called “people’s vote” campaign makes a lot of noise and insists, as if it is self-evident, that the route to Downing Street for the Labour Party runs via another EU referendum.
To those aware of the electoral realities, for example the more than 60% of Labour constituencies that voted leave in 2016, the main self-evident thing is that the claim is nonsense – and the latest polling bears out that assessment.
The LibDems campaign openly on a ‘stop Brexit’ platform – and in YouGov’s latest poll of Westminster voting intention, the LibDems stand on a paltry seven percent – their joint-lowest score in eleven months:
YouGov’s methodology routinely understates Labour’s vote, but their LibDem figure is not an outlier. Survation – the most reliable of the pollsters – has reflects similar recent results:
As coverage given to a well-funded ‘PV’ campaign has increased in recent months, the LibDems’ performance has actually fallen relative to their numbers in the summer.
If stopping Brexit is such a vote-winner, it’s not affecting their popularity – or rather lack of it.
Like the claim of Labour’s falling membership – revealed yesterday to be a myth, as the party’s member figures have remained unchanged over the last three months – the idea that Labour can ride to power by ignoring the millions who voted leave is pure propaganda. Weak propaganda at that, since it falls apart on even a cursory examination.
Labour’s commitment to honouring the referendum result and getting the best possible deal for all the UK’s people, instead of ignoring one half or the other, is clearly not only the most morally right but the most intelligent course for the opposition. It remains so as we start 2019.
Which, of course, raises the question of the real motives of the array of anti-Corbyn centrists shouting for the party to change course and ignore the vast numbers of people who voted to leave the EU in 2016.
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That’s exactly what will happen to Labour if we allow the Blairite/Centrist, Anti-Corbyn mob to get their way.
This Parliament is unlikely to vote No Confidence in the Government. The DUP will slink back to keep the only friend they have in place. There wont be a majority for a PV (thank goodness) – or anything else! It’s a rotten Rump that needs cleansing but let’s face it a GE now is very unlikely to produce a strong majority for any party, let alone Labour. Look at the figures in this article! Labour has little choice but to sit it out until 2022 as the Tories sink ever deeper into their Brexit abyss while the country suffers from their incompetence and corruption. By then the pressure behind Scottish and Irish Independence will be whistling and a Radical Government just what is required. Meanwhile all praise to Corbyn for carefully side stepping the wreckers in his own party demanding a 2nd Ref which ‘they’ will lose and promptly blame Corbyn. Bette4 for Labour to pursue deselection well before 2022.
No one knows what to do or where to go or what will happen of course, but my tuppence worth is as follows: I wanted to remain. Still do. Yes, Europe is a self serving group of overpaid elites, in some areas a capitalistic corrupt cabal. Post WW2 is the best we could come up with to keep the peace and sustain a European Court of Human Rights. Brexit itself was driven by Daily Mail and Sun-fanned flames of xenophobia among the vast majority of proletarian and weak-thinking racist voters and is a populist response to neo-liberalism that had hitherto ignored the majority in favour of London-centric Tories and the rest of the elites, echoing the post truth world of Trumpism. The scenario looks bleak for Britain. A so-called People’s Vote would result in the further rise of extreme right and riots on the street and would be challenged in court so could not hold. May trying to bounce Parliament to vote for her withdrawal deal may prove successful in the short term for the Tory centrists but would result in a slow-motion collapse of Britain’s economy and undermining of an already febrile social fabric which will inevitably, and as always, affect poorer families far more than those who are padded against poverty in the short term.. No deal would result in chaos, faster economic collapse, precipitate the overdue property crash, but with major consequences for the m/c, food shortages, and more likely result in riots on the street sooner and a General Election, the outcome of which is far from certain. Most disastrous handling by both parties, although Labour has had a much harder task against the onslaught of Labour centrists and MSM, it has nevertheless fudged and floundered. Jeremy has not been astute on this nor led.
You mean Corbyn has failed to lead you to the nirvana of Remain? What is your opinion of the Commissioners last week to force Italy to revise its budget? Spending too much on the poor and the old they said; Stop it Now! – and they did! Imagine what they’d say to Labour spending plans and policies like bringing the great Monopolies back into Public Ownership? They’d say No wouldn’t they? It a mistake to ‘blame’ possible racists for Brexit because it ignores the real opposition from the Left. Frankly No Deal would be better than May’s Botch because from that position the country can in fact cherry pick what the EU does have to offer. May’s Botch puts an everlasting lock on any radical government (which is why the Right, Tory and Labour, will probably end up voting for it. British Governments for ever under the Supervision of the EU Commissioners and now without even a voice in the decisions made. Clearly that’s FAR worse than Remaining or a No Deal.
It’s a little bit silly to compare the UK with Italy. The only reason that Brussels has any influence over Italy’s budget is because they are in the Euro, it may have escaped your notice but the UK isn’t a member of the EuroZone.
If Remain means Remain then that means being in the Single Market and its consequences which include all sorts of restrictions on the freedom of a national government let alone what will be demanded for a ‘free trade deal’. You guys should start a campaign cry ‘Remain means Remain’ maybe? And you really think you might win?!!
Isn’t that Labour Party policy?
No! It’s to negotiate our freedom.
Really? Do you have a link for that policy announcement at this year’s conference ?
Do you have a link saying otherwise is more to the point.
Paul 01/01/2019 at 3:38 pm
If I show you mine will you show me yours (link that is)
https://skwawkbox.org/2019/01/01/pv-proposition-exposed-as-libdems-poll-lowest-in-11-months/#comment-91035
SteveH……the man who’s never heard of “The Stability and Growth Pact” wherein 27 members agreed not to impede the growth of neoliberalism by adhering to European budget controls and aiming to run a small surplus with ever more time constricted rules on breaches…… It’s neoliberalism on steroids and you’re supporting it.
Our economic policy is independent from the EuroZone.
Sorry, I disagree. Brexit was caused by rampant neoliberalism that left large parts of the country behind. They got as much help from the lottery as they did from the EU and voted accordingly. The death throes of HMV and “the death of the high street” aren’t due to online shopping but economics that favour vulture capitalists, competition rules that destroy competition, choice that slashes choice. There were no “weak thinking racist voters”, only those sick of losing out in the race to the bottom in terms of jobs and housing. The same thing is happening across Europe and yet we are still being told, by centrist remainers that a ” forecast full of holes from remainer opinion polls” is the “Gospel truth”, even when we can see for ourselves that it’s barefaced propaganda and lies.
Oh dear! What a trail of false correlation, and whistling in the dark, aimed at minimizing the majority view in the Party who – in a definition reminiscent of a politburo pronouncements become “wreckers in his own party demanding a 2nd Ref”.
Debate the practicality of a new vote – and it is problematic – but do avoid these blanket tropes and wild generalisations about the motivations behind the issue. Trying to paint it as anti-democratic, (and the last vote as some weird stone tablet) is Orwellian in its distorted logic..
One thing is for sure – contemplating Brexit is to contemplate the fruition of a right wing dream, not a New Jerusalem. The difficult task getting out of the kamikazi politics of Brexit has to be a priority.
So this Government will bring forward the legislation for a PV? Like hell it would, one very practical difficulty facing the PV! Then there is the Delay (this time next year?) and the very obvious ‘risk’ from a Remainers point of view of losing. The fact those pretty basic issues are simply ignored demonstates the campaign is really about sidelining Corbyn and the Left – what a surprise!
“The fact those pretty basic issues are simply ignored demonstrates the campaign is really about sidelining Corbyn and the Left ”
This is known as working backwards to a predetermined conspiratorial conclusion. Try stepping outside the knee-jerk ‘Infamy!’ bubble, even if you reach a different conclusion to others.
I must admit to being somewhat perplexed by the number of people who regularly post on this blog who despite proclaiming to be staunch Labour Party members and/or supporters actively campaign against Labour Party policy on an almost daily basis.
Between them they seem to consistently ignore that:-
It is against Labour Party policy to leave the EU with no deal
Opposing a second referendum is not Labour Party policy
It is not Labour Party policy to detach itself from the Single Market.
For the sake of absolute clarity about what the current policy actually is I have reproduced (in full) the composite motion agreed at this years conference.
Conference welcomes Jeremy Corbyn’s determined efforts to hold the Tories to account for their disastrous negotiations. Conference accepts that the public voted to leave the EU, but when people voted to ‘take back control’ they were not voting for fewer rights, economic chaos or to risk jobs. Conference notes the warning made by Jaguar Land Rover on 11.9.18, that without the right deal in place, tens of thousands of jobs there would be put at risk.
Conference notes that workers in industries across the economy in ports, food, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, energy, chemicals, in our public services and beyond are worried about the impact of a hard Brexit on livelihoods and communities.
Conference believes we need a relationship with the EU that guarantees full participation in the Single Market. The Brexit deal being pursued by Theresa May is a threat to jobs, freedom of movement, peace in Northern Ireland and the NHS. Tory Brexit means a future of dodgy trade deals and American-style deregulation, undermining our rights, freedoms and prosperity. This binds the hands of future Labour governments, making it much harder for us to deliver on our promises. Conference notes Labour has set six robust tests for the final Brexit deal. Conference believes Labour MPs must vote against any Tory deal failing to meet these tests in full.
Conference also believes a no-deal Brexit should be rejected as a viable option and calls upon Labour MPs to vigorously oppose any attempt by this Government to deliver a no-deal outcome. Conference notes that when trade unions have a mandate to negotiate a deal for their members, the final deal is accepted or rejected by the membership. Conference does not believe that such important negotiations should be left to government ministers who are more concerned with self-preservation and ideology than household bills and wages.
Stagnant wages, crumbling services and the housing crisis are being exacerbated by the government and employers making the rich richer at working people’s expense, and not immigration. Conference declares solidarity and common cause with all progressive and socialist forces confronting the rising tide of neo-fascism, xenophobia, nationalism and right wing populism in Europe.
Conference resolves to reaffirm the Labour Party’s commitment to the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 including no hard border in Ireland.
Conference believes that there is no satisfactory technological solution that is compliant with the Good Friday Agreement and resolves to oppose any Brexit deal that would see the restoration of a border on the island of Ireland in any form for goods, services or people.
Should Parliament vote down a Tory Brexit deal or the talks end in no-deal, Conference believes this would constitute a loss of confidence in the Government. In these circumstances, the best outcome for the country is an immediate General Election that can sweep the Tories from power.
If we cannot get a general election Labour must support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote. If the Government is confident in negotiating a deal that working people, our economy and communities will benefit from they should not be afraid to put that deal to the public.
This should be the first step in a Europe-wide struggle for levelling-up of living standards, rights and services and democratisation of European institutions Labour will form a radical government; taxing the rich to fund better public services, expanding common ownership, abolishing anti-union laws and engaging in massive public investment.
“I must admit to being somewhat perplexed by the number of people who regularly post on this blog who despite proclaiming to be staunch Labour Party members and/or supporters actively campaign against Labour Party policy on an almost daily basis.”
Indeed why?
The notion that labour can can negotiate a markedly better deal , is fatuous in the extreme , and displays remarkable ignorance of the position of the remaining 27 EU countries .
That, of course is the nub. The better ‘deal’ is, in fact ‘Remain’.
It should be obvious that the EU isn’t going to cede special terms that undermine its framework. If we want a different framework – keep at the table. It won’t be easy, but it might have *some* (as opposed to *no*) chance.
Honouring the referendum result means honouring racism because despite all the high-minded talk from the Lexiters, it was the race card wheeled out by the far right wot won it. And don’t give me all that nonsense again about ‘don’t call Brexiters racist’, it’s just pius protest.
Honouring the referendum also means saying goodbye to our NHS which will be traded away by the Tories in exchange for those ‘simple’ trade deals as described by Fox.
Brexiting will also lead to Scotland going its own way and leaving the Union. So go ahead you far right Brexiters and misguided Lexiters, inflict upon the UK the greatest act of constitutional vandalism we have seen for a very long time.
If you read the full text (reproduced in my comment above) of the composite motion agreed at conference you may notice that there is no longer any reference to honouring the 2016 referendum
SteveH If continuining with Brexit is not ‘honouring the referendum’ what is it? Time and time again we hear Lexiters and others insist that we must continue with Brexit otherwise the right wing will be furious, how perverse is that? Labour can insist it will put it’s own complexion on Brexit – lipstick on a pig?
Jack T 02/01/2019 at 11:19 am
I was simply pointing out that there had been a significant change in the wording about the party’s support of the 2016 vote. How you interpret it is entirely up-to you. If one takes the composite motion as a whole I would interpret it a a strong commitment to have another referendum on whatever deal is eventually negotiated (Labour or Tory).
You should concentrate on what happens next week rather than what you think happened last Summer. How do you get the legislation past Parliament? You think the Tory Right and DUP will vote for it? (!!). It’s a dead duck and the issue is simply being used to attack Corbyn who knows as well as anybody the obvious danger a 2nd Referundum will result in something very similar to 2016 and get us nowhere.
Paul 02/01/2019 at 12:18 pm
I would argue that current Labour Party policy is relevant, if you wish to argue otherwise then by all means go for it but please don’t expect me to waste my time with such a ridiculous discussion.
As I understand it a lot of effort was put into trying to make sure that the Bill for the ‘meaningfull vote’ would be amendable so that it could be used as a vehicle for introducing such things as a 2nd referendum or ruling out no-deal. I would argue that the support for a 2nd referendum from Tory MPs is more likely than getting their support for a GE.
It may not prove possible but what is your solution, do nothing and just let the Tories have free reign till 2022.
You should also bare in mind that if a second referendum offered 3 choices using STV as well as the vote being more inclusive it is likely that the result would be more conclusive.
I support the Labour Party’s Brexit policy as agreed at conference, do you?
Actually “Honouring the referendum result” (whatever the validity of doing so) means recognising that there was no workable majority in favour of Brexit – a situation that has been made obvious by subsequent events.
That’s the problem with mickey-mouse plebiscites that actually duck the fundamental issues.
The large majority of the Labour Party is on the side of the angels in this, and it is simply a question of the leadership finding the best way off the fence in order to reflect that general view, and achieve a ‘Remain’ outcome – without being influenced with meaningless blather about ‘Centrism’ and ‘Blairites’ as the drivers.
It’s not too late to undo the major strategic mistake of being afraid not to endorse the unseemly rush to Article 50. But it will require skill and a bit of honesty.
As mentioned elsewhere, Jeremy Corbyn’s strength for listening could turn out to be a weakness. I suspect those such as Barry Gardiner and some unions leaders who are closest to him are either urging him to stay on the fence or rule out another vote completely. This however is in conflict with listening to the membership which by all accounts supports another vote.
… and, of course, it’s inimical to the interests of those that the Labour Party represents – i.e. the country as a whole. So there’s no realistic argument against where Labour should be heading – the Leftoryist (perhaps naive; perhaps a ruse) story (perhaps naive; perhaps a ruse – but certainly not in the interests of the ‘left behind’) is a fiction by any rational leftward analysis, and ‘Remain’ is the obvious target for a democratic socialist Party.
That, of course doesn’t solve the problem of getting there after so much time spent contemplating various aspects of the Brexit navel. and allowing policy drift to substitute for strategy, and getting the Party ducks in a row. But the objective should be crystal clear by now.
(P.S. : The level of LibDem support isn’t an indicator of anything but a previous adoption of Tory policy by another political party – i.e a Moderatoryist stance)
Funny you didn’t show the Jan 2019 poll in full. Is it the one with the Tories in the lead?