Yesterday, the SKWAWKBOX predicted a busy week for the government – and for Labour politicians and supporters – as Brexit negotiations come to a conclusion. Based on conversations with insiders in Parliament and elsewhere, the following scenario is now likely:
- May will conclude a deal with the EU – her discussions with the Cabinet today are discussing the provisional deal
- the Cabinet will support the deal, possibly with one or two protest resignations
- May will gain the support of the DUP for her deal, having backed them into a corner as well as sweetening the deal with further funding
- twenty or so Tory MPs will rebel
The arithmetic of all this means that May will need some fifteen Labour rebels to succeed in getting her deal through Parliament – and that Labour’s so-called ‘moderates’ will decide whether she stands or falls.
Scandalously, some Labour MPs appear to be considering it:
“If the prime minister can bring a deal that better meets where we think she should be, there may be a majority in parliament” – Labour MP Gareth Snell says that might avoid the UK “crashing out without a deal”@maitlis | #newsnight | @gareth_snell pic.twitter.com/IlPYBuV0Vy
— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) November 12, 2018
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