Voter intention figures from the better pollsters paint a dramatic picture

Of the various polling companies to predict the result at last year’s General Election, Survation was the most accurate – and received a thorough mocking from BBC political pundits for predicting a Labour ‘surge’ that proved to be pretty much spot on.

The latest Westminster voting intention poll by another company with a decent record, Ipsos Mori, shows Labour with a solid lead over the Tories:

LAB: 42% (+3)
CON: 39% (+2)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-2)

(IpsosMORI, 19 – 23 Jan. Chgs. v/ Nov)

Survation has not published a Westminster voting intention poll in some time, but its most recent – in early December – gave Labour an eight-point lead over the Tories, at 45% to their 37%.

A favourite current tactic of the Labour right is to cry that Labour should – under a ‘more of the same’, ‘centrist’ leader, of course – be at least twenty points ahead, but this is nonsense, both because a centrist leader would not have inspired the surge Corbyn triggered and because the media has reverted to its usual stance. The unfiltered view of Corbyn and his policies that was on show during General Election conditions has been put away until the next one.

However, the scale of Corbyn’s lead tends to be obscured by a view of an individual poll, which represents a narrow window or snapshot of the public’s thinking. But put a series of numbers into a chart for a wider overview and a dramatic picture emerges.

The chart below represents Survation’s polling from immediately after the General Election up to their most recent – and it gives a striking picture of the changed landscape of British politics:


New Survation figures are expected middle of next week.


Labour’s recalcitrant right has its own reasons for wanting to downplay Corbyn’s and Labour’s achievement against a torrent of biased media – and the Establishment media are also likely to obscure the picture, if only by mixing in less striking data from polling companies whose models proved less accurate last June.

But if you sense the underlying panic of the Establishment in their behaviour and frenetic smears against Corbyn and his supporters, it’s not hard to perceive the reasons for it in the above trends.

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  1. lets not get complacent , nice tho the trend appears to be in the polls now is not the time to take the foot off the gas . NHS NHS NHS hammer the hell out of the message . If you want a free fully working effective NHS that will save your life then vote Labour ,,, anything , ANYTHING else ensures it destruction SIMPLES .

  2. Hey Skwawkbox, Namaste 🙂

    Very encouraging news: there is nothing better than knowing the Labour Piped Piper called Corbyn is playing a merry tune leading the polls and in so doing leading the stinking Tory rats and Bluebottles away from government and back to their grubby sewer. Perhaps many of them will also perish in the downfall: one lives in hope.

    Love and Peace. Namaste 🙂


  3. It’s good news but it still looks as though the Tories still command the loyalty of a huge number of voters! More Socialism and clear Socialist ideas must be offered! All the tardy Labour members who still behave as if they’re Tory Lite either need to get out and organise or just get out!

    1. Yes. The Labour Party needs to have a clear position of opposing Trident so that voters can have a choice at the next election on this vital matter.

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