Of the various polling companies to predict the result at last year’s General Election, Survation was the most accurate – and received a thorough mocking from BBC political pundits for predicting a Labour ‘surge’ that proved to be pretty much spot on.
The latest Westminster voting intention poll by another company with a decent record, Ipsos Mori, shows Labour with a solid lead over the Tories:
LAB: 42% (+3)
CON: 39% (+2)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-2)
(IpsosMORI, 19 – 23 Jan. Chgs. v/ Nov)
Survation has not published a Westminster voting intention poll in some time, but its most recent – in early December – gave Labour an eight-point lead over the Tories, at 45% to their 37%.
A favourite current tactic of the Labour right is to cry that Labour should – under a ‘more of the same’, ‘centrist’ leader, of course – be at least twenty points ahead, but this is nonsense, both because a centrist leader would not have inspired the surge Corbyn triggered and because the media has reverted to its usual stance. The unfiltered view of Corbyn and his policies that was on show during General Election conditions has been put away until the next one.
However, the scale of Corbyn’s lead tends to be obscured by a view of an individual poll, which represents a narrow window or snapshot of the public’s thinking. But put a series of numbers into a chart for a wider overview and a dramatic picture emerges.
The chart below represents Survation’s polling from immediately after the General Election up to their most recent – and it gives a striking picture of the changed landscape of British politics:
New Survation figures are expected middle of next week.
Labour’s recalcitrant right has its own reasons for wanting to downplay Corbyn’s and Labour’s achievement against a torrent of biased media – and the Establishment media are also likely to obscure the picture, if only by mixing in less striking data from polling companies whose models proved less accurate last June.
But if you sense the underlying panic of the Establishment in their behaviour and frenetic smears against Corbyn and his supporters, it’s not hard to perceive the reasons for it in the above trends.
The SKWAWKBOX needs your support. This blog is provided free of charge but depends on the generosity of its readers to be viable. If you can afford to, please click here to arrange a one-off or modest monthly donation via PayPal. Thanks for your solidarity so this blog can keep bringing you information the Establishment would prefer you not to know about.
If you wish to reblog this post, you are welcome to do so – see here for more.