Analysis comment News

‘New mutant’ C19 strain has been in Italy at least 9 days. Italy’s cases are going DOWN

Seems ‘new’, ‘virulent’ virus strain doesn’t like school closures

The ‘new’ ‘UK strain’ of coronavirus that the government is blaming for the rocketing rate of coronavirus cases and deaths in this country has been in Italy for at least nine days, as it was identified by 14 December in that country, as the ‘Nextstrain’ site notes:

However, infection rates in Italy have been falling and continue to fall sharply, even though the 5-6 day typical incubation period of the virus would allow new cases to show well within within those nine days:

Italy imposed a new school shutdown in November. The Tories squandered a chance to time the last England-wide lockdown to coincide with the half-term holidays and insisted – with Labour leader Keir Starmer’s enthusiastic backing – that schools must remain open as normal, even when England’s second and far less stringent ‘lockdown’ eventually came.

School-children of all ages now suffer the highest levels of infection of the whole population:

But that situation began to emerge long before the supposedly-new ‘mutant’ strain became the Tories’ excuse for rising numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths – and scientists continue to say that it is too early to conclude that the new strain spreads faster. They also say that the current rates are primarily attributable to the Tories’ failure to take the right steps to contain it, rather than any new characteristics of any new strain:

And the government’s own scientists continue to avoid confirming and even directly contradict the claims of Johnson and Hancock – such as in Hancock’s press conference just this afternoon:

We have no evidence that this virus is more transmissible in children yet“. No evidence.

And the presence for – at the very least – the last nine days of the virus in Italy, while the number of cases in Italy continues to fall, further suggests that whatever the capabilities of any new strain, they has little or nothing to do with the current rampage of the virus.

Which makes it very much the fault, yet again, of the Tories and their helpers – and the supposed ‘70% more transmissible’ claims look very much like ‘cover our arse’ spin.

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  1. Hancock overdid his ‘the virus is out of control’ story that was designed to explain/excuse why the Government decided to ‘cancel Christmas’ at the last minute.Most of us in the UK took it with a huge spoonful of salt because we know this Government and we know Hancock. Unfortunately the rest of the World believed it or had little choice but to think it might be true (he is the Health Minister after all). Result 56 countries close their borders to us. Now, no doubt to cover and distract from his original invention he’s found another new variant. As before nobody knows if it’s worse or faster so let’s assume it’ is! There have been 20,000 variants identified this year so Hancock has a big store of stories to come. He’s a little weasel.

  2. Closing the borders was what Macron threatened to do in the phone call with Johnson on Friday morning of March 15. He was ‘angrily demanding’ Johnson lock down or “at least close the – pubs, Italy has closed its bars” the media in France and the Uk reported. For once Johnson saw the damage that border closure would involve, as we’re witnessing now. But the story vanished by lunchtime in the Uk and at 4pm Johnson announced pubs would shut and the full lockdown came on the Monday (no doubt they had to work out what a Lockdown was). Over that weekend the media were full of reports, very similarly written, that Prof Ferguson’s Report had ‘panicked’ the cabinet into action. That is still the story behind the Lockdown story, Prof Lockdown as he’s known in the tabloids was completely responsible. 24/7 surveillance by newspapers and/or Other Agencies spotted a woman going to his flat. His girlfriend became his Mistress (!) and no doubt he’s been careful what he says, writes or does. Not a word this week about Macron’s previous border closure threat. The Press is SO close to Johnson it might suffocate him one day.

  3. Italy has been on soft lockdown for weeks (no schools, gyms,restaurants open only for lunch, pubs closed at 6.00pm, travel restricted within the country). Numbers were falling but not enough. The country is going into full lockdown tomorrow (24th) until basically 6th Janin attempt to control contagion

    1. Don’t you get the feeling our lockdown (in all but name) announced today will last a whole lot longer than 6 Jan?

  4. Increasing infection rate in the UK caused by Tory government mutation. You can’t beat fake news for getting Boris off the hook.

  5. Thanks Steve for throwing light on dark practices the whole year, exposing utter hypocrisy. Lets hope next year is better all round although the left of the Labour party have to be serious about whether the party can ever become a socialist one.

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