Analysis Exclusive

Explosive SAGE chart shows government fully aware closing pubs and not schools will have minimal impact on second wave

Tories know what they’re doing won’t work – and they know what will and are not doing it

A chart showing the analysis of the government’s own scientific advisers – its ‘SAGE’ committee – reveals that the government is fully aware that the measures it is taking to combat the coronavirus second wave will not be effective.

And that the measures it won’t take are what’s needed.

The chart lays out SAGE’s findings about the impact of the various ‘mitigations’ that the government could put in place to reduce the ‘R rate’ of the virus’s spread. It shows a ‘spread’ of likely impact, with a minimum and maximum expected effect:

The explosive chart shows that closing pubs and restaurants – the Tories’ obsessive measure – has one of the lowest impacts of all the options available. Closing retail will have zero impact and preventing people mixing in homes, the other Tory obsession, also has little effect.

But closing workplaces and even more closing schools, are far more effective in pushing down the rate of spread.

In other words, the Tories are doing exactly what they know will be least effective – while the measures that will work are the ones the Tories are determined not to do, or to do as late as possible when the damage is already done.

The Tories are not simply ‘mishandling’ the government’s response to the crisis. They are knowingly and intentionally doing the least effective things while ignoring the measures that will work.

Boris Johnson and co are putting lives on then altar of their arrogance and political agenda – having already sacrificed tens of thousands during the first wave.

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    1. Jack T, if all six measures and more were implemented diligently, I believe a month would knock CV down far enough that even the incompetent Tory test and trace would be able to mop up the remainder.
      Half-arsed mini Tory lockdowns are likely to drag it out over nine months or a year and leave us where we are now or worse on cases and deaths, but trillions worse off financially.
      Exactly like last time.

      1. David, that’s too logical. Logic takes a back seat when an ulterior motive is driving Bozo’s measures.

  1. “In other words, the Tories are doing exactly what they know will be least effective – while the measures that will work are the ones the Tories are determined not to do, or to do as late as possible when the damage is already done.”


    Rescuing their trinkets before phoning the fire brigade….Who won’t be there for at least thirty-five fucking minutes, seeing as they’ve got to come from another eight or ten miles away through heavy traffic because the ‘rags saved the money on fire prevention to buy themselves the baubles they’re rescuing instead of taking the measures they can to prevent the fire spreading further.

    There HAS to be retribution for this wilful neglect due to avarice. We, the people, simply MUST NOT allow their malfeasance to pass uncorrected.

  2. Dearie me, the two worst, stats and facts mangling, covid19 denier trolls, up and running with their rabid nonsense as soon as the article appears. Full time paid trolls both. Only the capitalist class benefits from a widespread belief that covid19 is anything other than a vey infectious, highly dangerous, very real global pandemic that could easily eventually kill hundreds of thousands of our older and more vulnerable fellow UK citizens (on an even larger scale than UK deaths from ‘Spanish’ Flu in 1918/19 of circa 200,000), if sufficiently robust measures aren’t taken to limit its spread – until a useful vaccine is (hopefully) produced. Because if masses of workers believe the pandemic is a hoax, they will turn up for work in unsafe workplaces , regardless of the death toll arising from ignoring the disease . The likes of Jack T and Terry Alderman are simply lying shills for Big Business . Treat their regular nonsense posts with contempt.

    1. Jpenney, as a rabid Zionist you will use any excuse to attack those who criticises Zionism for being racist. Exactly the same technique was used to attack Jeremy Corbyn – discredit the man, discredit the message. It’s a time honoured tactic used by Zionists to undermine their opponents.

      I asked whether combined measures mentioned in the article could have an effect on the R number and you go off on a rant accusing me of being paid to comment. So come on pathetic penney tell everyone the identity of my paymaster?

  3. Let me get this right…

    Covid is harmless? Covid isn’t highly virulent and contagious? Nobody is at risk from Covid, or at least the risk(s) is/are over-exaggerated?

    We’re all ‘dayglo donald’ and can ‘beat the living crap’ out of this disease – IF only we allow ourselves to be exposed to it? It’s our patriotic duty to get out and earn a pittance to ensure the toffs don’t lose 20p ontheir portfolios?

    And if we don’t believe that then we’re toerag shills? We’re economy wreckers? bill gates’ vaccinations is really a mind-control operation and we’ll all become part of the matrix, like in the film?

    Nah. Gonna have to do FAR better than that sort of shizz, I’m afraid. I’d rather hear the testimony of doctors and nurses and (ex) covid patients and their families, than the likes of some machine-gun-toting moron down the town hall, threatening to ,i>’pop a cap in any mask-wearing pussy’s ass,, thanks.

  4. Coronavirus infections soared again across the UK on Wednesday with 19,724 new positive test results recorded.

    The UK’s official coronavirus death toll increased by 137 newly reported fatalities in the last 24 hours, in a slight dip.

    A total 143 were recorded to have died with the virus on Tuesday, when 17,234 new cases were reported.

    The toll includes 108 deaths in England, 15 in Scotland, 10 in Wales, and four in Northern Ireland.

  5. Skwawky how can I upload pictures from my phone onto the site… The boozer by me has done an absolute scorcher… It’ll make the news somewhere else if not here. .

      1. Nice one!

        It’s something everyone will enjoy!! Deffo will be shown on one of these political panel shows like hignfy or Frankie Boyle daily mash.. etc.

        Might be a bit risque for the likes of Brillo & Preston.etc…

      2. Join our #GrassrootsVoice NEC candidates plus special guests including Jeremy Corbyn.

        With Labour NEC ballots dropping soon, come and join this election rally!

        With #GrassrootsVoice NEC candidates: Gemma Bolton, Yasmine Dar, Ann Henderson, Nadia Jama, Laura Pidcock & Mish Rahman.

        And Apsana Begum MP, Richard Burgon MP, Jeremy Corbyn MP, Mick Antoniw, Left candidate for the NEC Wales rep, NEC youth rep candidate Lara McNeill & candidate for Disabled Members rep Ellen Morrison.

      3. Ooops the above was intended to be a stand-alone comment.

      4. *Mash report…nevermind.

        Anyway…As a way of lockdown protest, a boozer by mine has changed its name to ‘The Three Bellends’ and the sign has been changed to show the mekon, de piffle and hancockup all wearing bells on their bounces…Most amusing. 😆

      5. Toffee – There is nothing to stop you posting it to either YouTube or DropBox and providing a link in your comment.

  6. There is a big question mark surfacing on the accuracy of PCR (gold standard) Tests & to what extent the World Health Organisation are ‘in bed’ with ‘Big Pharma’. It seems NOTHING is certain, including Test; Trace & Isolate as any ‘scientific evidence’ is questionable.

    1. PCR isn’t 100%, but nor are most things in medicine.
      It is the only practical test available though, and the CV deniers claiming only 10% accuracy are talking out of other people’s arses.

      “In bed with” big pharma – who else but big pharma is going to produce a vaccine and make it on the scale required?
      Pharma will necessarily be in constant contact with the WHO – that’s a given.
      “In bed with” implies corruption by both parties but falls short of libel, which is why the expression is so popular.
      All scientific evidence is under constant review – questioned – “questionable” if you like, ie open to question – by other scientists.
      That’s how science works – it’s what keeps science honest.
      Unlike governments and conspiracy theorists, science – with a tiny number of exceptions – doesn’t propagandise.
      The exceptions are those few snake oil salesmen and quacks who are deliberately bringing science itself into disrepute so that politicians can go against scientific consensus, claim to be acting on “the best” science and then later deny responsibility for the incompetence of their CV19 interventions.
      It’s no coincidence that a few outliers are the ones quoted ad nauseam by the deniers here.

      1. Talking out of his arse appears to be a ‘McNasty’ speciality. Read again & try to comment on exactly what I wrote, I questioned the accuracy of PCR Tests because a large number of ‘specialists’ better informed than myself are begging the question & simply because it is the only test used internationally does not make it accurate. So exactly how accurate are PCR Tests & how often are there ‘false positives?
        Serious questions are also being asked about the relationship between WHO & ‘Big Pharma’, especially in Africa where accusations are being made about pointless immunisation programmes being undertaken with surplus, out of date vaccines.
        The research being undertaken @ Oxford University into a Corona Vaccine will be marketed by ‘Big Pharma’ US company Astra-Zeneca, but the research is paid for by British taxpayers.
        So easy to project onto others his own inadequacies. So easy to think in crass generalisations & make stupid assumptions. I only ask questions, that does not constitute denying how dangerous the Corona virus is; I am simply an agnostic who is asking for any ‘facts’ to be verified & not ASSumed.

      2. Steve Richards. – Have a listen to this edition of BBC R4 ‘More or Less’ (broadcast 23/09/2020), it may help you add some perspective to your thoughts on false positives. Listen between 00:08:40 and 00:15:30. (<7 minutes)

      3. @Steve Richards

        “‘Big Pharma’ US company Astra-Zeneca”

        AstraZeneca is an Anglo-Swedish company, the “Zeneca” bit used to be ICI Parmaceuticals.

    1. Steve Richards – I got as far as him claiming that Covid-19 hadn’t caused any excess deaths worldwide and quickly concluded that I really couldn’t be bothered listening any further to someone who was basing his argument on such a false premiss.

    1. Steve Richards – It doesn’t do much for your credibility when YouTube have taken your video down with the message – This video has been removed for violating YouTube’s Terms of Service.

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