Analysis Exclusive

Video: BBC admits England was worst in Europe during pandemic under Tories – but also gives away that UK death toll is higher than even worst portrayed so far

Counting ‘excess deaths’ from 5-year average ignores that deaths in 2020 were below average so additional death toll is larger

The BBC gave surprising coverage on Thursday to new statistics showing that England – ahead of the UK as a whole – was the worst country in Europe for coronavirus deaths, based on a count of ‘excess deaths’ versus the five-year average:

But the coverage also revealed – without any mention by the BBC – that the UK’s death figures have been far worse than even the highest published so far:

The government’s risible figures have long been recognised as vastly understating the real number of people who have died of the virus – but even more realistic calculations by the Financial Times have based their estimates on the ‘excess’ mortality compared to the five-year average.

But deaths in 2020, after a mild winter, were lower than the five-year average – and the new statistics show that they have largely continued to be:

This means that the real pandemic death toll is considerably higher than the 70,000 or so calculated by the more honest ‘mainstream’ media – and based on the gaps shown in the chart, the real toll so far has been at least ten thousand higher still.

This was not highlighted by the BBC – and the government continues to push its fantasy figures to protect itself politically and to justify its reckless haste to send children back to school and their parents back to work.

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  1. Paraphrasing a tweet on Private Eye.
    Some people can be excused for voting for Brexit because they did not have enough information but not for voting for Johnson who wore his depravity on his sleeve.

    1. Comrade Jack! I voted for Brexit on principle, not ignorance. I voted for Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit that Starmer & his ‘Liberal’ chums worked so hard to destroy. Now we have 2 Liberal Parties. Some people should never be excused for quoting Zionist Ian Hislop’s Private Eye.

      1. Steve, note: I said ‘some people’ if it didn’t apply to you then why bother?. Also note that my comment was based upon a tweet IN Private Eye not BY Private Eye. But thanks for letting me know that Ian Hislop is a Zionist, I didn’t know that. I don’t read the Eye, I only read the tweet because it was forwarded to me.

    2. There is an implication in what you say Jack….as people who voted Brexit are usually stereotyped as ignorant; emotional; illogical; racists, by those ‘liberal’ bourgeois smugs who advocate the Blairite economics of globalism & cheap labour, & voted to Remain in the ‘rich man’s club’..

      1. Steve Richards, you say you voted for “Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit” – that meant that Jeremy had to win an election before your dreams could be realised.
        You voted for Brexit when the Tories were in government – it was illogical for a socialist to risk a Tory Brexit.
        I’d have preferred to remain but I’d have gladly accepted Brexit with Corbyn as PM – a predictably screwed-up Tory Brexit like this one is the worst of ALL POSSIBLE results – you obviously must have decided that was an acceptable risk.
        It clearly was to an awful lot of people who call themselves socialists.

      2. Steve, don’t stoop to the levels of the Zionists who use the same ‘implication’ argument to accuse all and sundry of anti-Semitism.

        There was NO implication in my comment. I could have said ‘people’ but I didn’t, I said ‘some people’ on purpose. Don’t adopt factitious hurt.

  2. People here – we all know who they are – have claimed that the excess deaths since March are BECAUSE 19/20 Winter was mild – ie the old dears were past their sell-by date anyway, so nothing to see here. That might fly if they’d died the following Winter, but they died in Spring and Summer. And with CV symptoms.
    Another factor the morons neglect to mention is that locked down at home people are at less risk of other ‘normal’ causes of death like accidents at work and on the roads, Friday night violence, stroke, heart attack etc. Unmistakably not CV deaths.
    They also neglect to mention that the tiny number of scientists they quote ad nauseam are the only ones who believe as they do, and that for every scientist they quote there are a hundred thousand others who think they’re wankers.
    “CV as a fairy story” also doesn’t explain the fact that the governments with effective policies have kept deaths low and the populist-led countries that dismissed the danger have had vastly more deaths – if it wasn’t CV what caused those differences?
    Something had to.

    1. Oh dear, poor old McBullshit spinning his yarns. NOT A SINGLE DOCUMENTED SOURCE, EVIDENCE OR PROOF to support his wailing of the arms call to the true believers to give him sustenance. Old Mcbullshit states ” the tiny number of scientists they quote” to any one who challenges the masters myths, symbols or stories concerning this ” pandemic “, yet can only offer emotive, propagandistic appeals to the true believers to suppress any challenge to the masters narrative offering not a morsel, not a crumb, not a scintilla of evidence to give credence to his outlandish tales.

      Moreover, poor old Mcbullshit has to retort to Fraudian propagandistic language to try to give credence to a ” pandemic” which even the NHS have stated has a median fatality age of 80 and 95% of them had two or more serious illness eg cancer, dementia, Parkinson’s, heart disease etc. Even the chief medical officer of the UK stated the vast majority of people WILL NOT GET Covid-19 OF THOSE WHO THE SYMPTOMS WILL BE SO MILD THEY DON’T KNOW THEY HAVE IT, A SMALL MINORITY WILL HAVE MILD SYMPTOMS, A VERY SMALL NUMBER WILL BE HOSPITALIZED AND Unfortunately A MINUTE NUMBER WILL DIE. Did old people with serious illnesses not die before Covid -19 or as Mc Bullshit and the true believers would contest old people are only dying from Covid-19.

      Meanwhile, the economy has gone to hell in a hand cart and over 3,000,000 people are unemployed, 16,000,000 including 4,000,000 children live in poverty, 200,000 are homeless, 900,000+ food parcels have had to be distributed which will increase by Gods know how much because the economy has contracted by 25%+ as all those in the real world know.

      But as long as Mc Bullshit and the true believers lap up the fairy stories from their masters table, it ain’t going to get any better for the 99% of the population whether in the UK or the US.

  3. As most people who read and follow skwawkbox will know by now, John Ware is suing JVL for libel, and I was just reading through the additional comments that have been added to JLMs post about it since yesterday, and there was the following comment by a guy named Jacob Ecclestone:

    Reading these many comments, I am struck by the number of your supporters (and I count myself as one) who express sadness and regret that John Ware should have begun legal proceedings against JVL. While I do not for a moment underestimate the time, resources and work which will be required to defend the case, my reaction is one of relief. Here, at last, there is the possibility of setting out the evidence in a court of law to show that the Labour Party has been the victim of a foul campaign built on lies, smears, falsehoods and bullying. A campaign driven by a coalition of foreign diplomats, media organisations, people employed and paid to work for the election of a Labour government, members of the Parliamentary Labour Party and religious bigots.

    Having just read Peter Oborne’s savage demolition of any claims which the ECHR might have once had to fighting racism in Britain ( which left me depressed) I welcome Mr Ware’s decision. Having brought, fought and won libel proceedings against my former employers – the National Union of Journalists – I am aware how long and hard this fight will be. But I will support JVL in every way that I can over the coming months (and years?) because you stand for truth, tolerance and freedom of speech.

    Keir Starmer having foolishly chosen to tie himself – and therefore the Labour Party as an organisation – to the policies and prejudices of people who loathe anything to do with socialism, Mr Ware’s claim against JVL at least offers a way in which you can help to clear the membership as a whole of the stain of anti-semitism. Would that not be a wonderful irony?

    1. I would like to agree with Allan, at least once, but I can’t. I do agree with his abstract, but I cannot trust the system. The courts may have evidence presented to them, but that does not create an agenda for MSM to report or debate it. It will be ignored; overlooked; dismissed………….like it never happened. Do you really believe that we are about to enter a MSM renaissance in reportage & the ‘Truth is out there’ & & must be reported @ all costs, for the sake of a healthy democracy, policed by the 4th estate? No we have gov’t by Media.

      1. Yes, of course Doug, the corporate media and the BBC will no doubt just ignore it, unless of course John Ware were to win the case. I just this minute did a search to see how much coverage it received in the MSM – ie Ware suing JLM for libel – and it appears to have received very little coverage. BUT, if Ware DOES lose the case, not only would it be a huge morale booster to the left, but it would also shut him up.

        And I don’t think anyone can disagree with the sentiments expressed by Jacob Ecclestone.

      2. Just noticed that I said JLM above, but of course meant JVL!

      3. Afterthought: And by the way Steve, that was pretty clever stuff disagreeing with something I didn’t say!

  4. At last the real figure is acknowledged.The mad farce of it not being quoted for all this time is probably the most shameful collusion in which the media of this country has ever indulged. Additionally the BBC’s Panorama programme last night, a heart breaking programme about the mass murder of our elderly in care homes, fully exposed the way the homes were neglected abused and bullied by the government, and, sadly by hospitals pushing them to ‘do their bit’ and take untested discharges which led to so very many deaths. And how damning when Panorama stated at the end: ‘We asked the Health Secretary for an interview but he declined.’ Bravo Matt Hancock of the ‘We have thrown a protective ring around care homes’ big lie, Orwellian Newspeak shamelessly trotted out by a man with no shred of integrity , a dissembler and a coward.

    1. Speaking as (up to 2018’s wipe out) a Labour Councillor who was also that council’s Cabinet Member for Adult Social Care, I can confirm from a local and regional perspective the general veracity of the excess mortality graphs up to Covid. By and large they were the result of better bottom up working by local councils, NHS CCG’s and local Hospital Trusts in effecting better and more timely discharge arrangements and by local councils becoming more expert in putting in place early intervention home care packages – all aided by the fact that in that period there were no severe winter epidemics. Despite rhetoric, it had little to do with central government or heath ministers, mist of whom simply hectored from the side-lines. But conversely, of curse, no practitioner expected this pattern to hold – the demographics and an inevitable alteration in the run o play WERE going to intrude – and they now have in a far bigger way than anyone expected.

  5. A few simple *facts* about the Scary Fairy for the statistically under-educated:

    1. The ‘Covid’ deaths are massively inflated by the corruption of the death registration process, so that even motorblke accidents have been included in the ‘official’ (i.e inaccurate ) figures. (See CEBM work on dodgy data)

    2. There is no standardised international metric on which to compare Covid. Only total mortality tells you anything.

    3. The season 2019/20, including the peak period of deaths (April-May)was actually the *eighth* in terms of mortality over the past 27 years. Anyone over 70 will have lived through a dozen worse epidemics.

    4. The ancillary deaths caused by the barmy Lock-Up policy are massively understated, with a latest conservative estimate being around 20,000.

    5.There is currently *no* epidemic, and hasn’t been for a while (- thus the frantic attempts by the government to keep their successful Panic narrative going, using a range of psy-ops stories like ‘masks’, ‘second waves’ and ‘spikes’ that are invisible to the intelligent observer. Note also the use of the term ‘cases’ in the narrative – i.e. results from inaccurate testing.

    6. The term ‘excess deaths’ – based on a five-year average is a meaningless term in this context. It’s the error component of a mathematical guess.

    7. The higher level of deaths are exclusively due to deaths among the larger vulnerable population that survived the 2018/19 season of low infection. The infection has a lower mortality than seasonal ‘flu for most of the population. For those under 19, mortallity is invisible.

    All the above can be easily verified by anyone doing a bit of digging into the information kept out of the MSM and other partial sources.

  6. ” I can confirm from a local and regional perspective the general veracity of the excess mortality graphs up to Covid.”

    The years up to 2020 saw historically low mortality (below the quarter-century median), which began a gradual upward turn from 2011/12 (3 yr moving average).

    2019/20 winter-spring showed that notable spike among the vulnerable population in April. But the combined 2-yr mortality (including that peak and the exceptional low mortality of the previous year) was almost exactly at the quarter-century median level.

    1. I think that proves my point. But mortality rates are not immutable (although the reaper will come for all of us at some time) What the combined good work of primary care clinicians, health and social care managers – and above all – nursing and social care staff did – was to try and eradicate causes of excess winter deaths. Interestingly, in a time of austerity, where public agencies start behaving like starved caged rats after a meal, many other players – Council Finance Chiefs, Chief Executives and, in the NHS, the men from the Royal Colleges with dreams of marvellous new operating suites and high-tech medicine, saw adult social care as a cash cow for potential milking. By and large they did not succeed, thank Christ.

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