Footnotes add cases to total “due to historic revisions” – but daily figures not changed, giving government control over how it drips out figures
The Department of Health added 374 additional coronavirus cases to its coronavirus figures on Friday, claiming they were ‘due to historic revisions’ – but none of the previous daily figures were amended. The additional cases were simply added to the running total, giving the people of the UK no idea when they happened. The case numbers in any case represent only a fraction of the estimated real number of new infections.
Analysis of the daily spreadsheets shows that the daily figures before the additional cases and the daily figures after they were added are unchanged, as a statistician confirmed to the SKWAWKBOX:
A comparison of the number of new cases for Friday against the previous day’s shows no difference. The additional 374 cases have just been added to the cumulative total.
But the analysis also showed that the cases have all happened with the last two weeks at the longest:
I compared the daily testing time series by pillar on 14 June and the figures are exactly the same for number of positive cases from pillar 1 and 2.
So that means these ‘historical’ 374 new cases must be from 14 June onwards – assuming they are genuinely missed data. But there’s nothing to indicate that’s the case apart from the government’s claim that they are.
It’s equally possible they thought announcing a 1380 figure for a single day would lead to a lot of questions, so they re-apportioned the cases – and in fact there are indications this is the case.
This would mean yesterday’s new cases were 1380 and not 1006, or else why not update the figures to show where these 374 came from historically?
But if the ‘historical’ claim is true and the 374 are from the last 13 days, that’s bad in itself. Below are the time series for 14 June and 26 June. The column you are looking at is ‘i’.
The last figure in each block of 5 up to 27 March is the total hospital positive cases P1. After that the last 2 figures in each block of 7 are P1 ‘hospital’ and P2 ‘wider population’. These added together give the total number of new cases that appear in the DHSC reports posted daily.
Adding additional cases in this way, with no indication of where or when they occurred, gives the government even more control over how the consequences of its horrific handling of the coronavirus are reported – and ample opportunity to disguise or at least delay the signs of a second wave.
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