Latest poll gives Labour NINE-point lead

Poll suggests protest vote – or protest non-vote – in local elections last week would return to Labour in general election

A new Westminster poll has just been published giving Labour a massive 9% lead over the Tories.

The Panelbase poll, which includes the new Brexit and Change UK parties, puts Labour well ahead of any competitors, also supports the conclusions of Royal Statistical Society council member Simon Briscoe that the LibDem ‘surge’ in last week’s local elections was largely illusory, an effect of depressed turnout by voters for other parties.

The poll’s results in full:

LAB: 36% (-4)
CON: 27% (-13)
BXP: 13% (+13)
LDM: 8% (=)
UKIP 5% (=)
CHUK 4% (+4)
GRN: 3% (=)

The new poll means that Labour has been ahead in all the latest polls, including the one published by YouGov, a polling company with a reputation for understating Labour’s support – and gives Labour an average lead across polls of 5.8%:

• Panelbase (+9%)
• BMG (+4%)
• Delta (+5%)
• Survation (+4%)
• Kantar (+4%)
• Hanbury (+9%)
• Opinium (+7%)
• ComRes (+10%)
• YouGov (+3%)
• ORB (+3%)

The Tories’ average polling, meanwhile, has falled 14% in just two months.

SKWAWKBOX view:

The media desperately attempted to spin last week’s results as equivalent for both Labour and the Tories, in spite of enormous Tory losses.

Labour’s strength in Westminster voting intention persists – but the warning of last week’s results – that the party must leave behind any notion of a new referendum – must not be ignored.

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23 responses to “Latest poll gives Labour NINE-point lead

  1. The reason Labour’s lead appears to be increasing is because it looks more and more likely that the current ‘negotiations’ will lead to deadlock, making it inevitable that the decision will have to be put back to the people.

  2. Not ‘ back to the people ‘ as a 2nd referendum, but as a General Election !

    • I agree with Peter Berry. A Genera Election is the only way out of this mess because irrespective of the outcome of any new referendum it is unlikely that the 200 or so hardline MPs ( leave and remain) could agree any deal. Compromise is not a word they are familiar with.

  3. Peter Berry

    “Not ‘ back to the people ‘ as a 2nd referendum, but as a General Election !”

    If Labour does not change its manifesto re: the referendum, a GE will solve nothing. It will prolong the deadlock and will hinder Labour’s prospects of winning.

    The electorate MUST have their chance to voice their opinion BEFORE any GE.

  4. A General Election is a better way of deciding Brexit. One way or another it will always trump a referendum, not least because the Brexit debate is going to rumble on for YEARS. The devil is very much in the details. If a Tory hardliner takes over s/he will tweak and tweak and the same goes for Labour. Referundums don’t fit in with Parliament; have one or the other; Populists advocating goodness knows what through binary choices (eg a return to capital punishment? Deportation of some immigrants?) is to be avoided at all costs.

    • “A General Election is a better way of deciding Brexit.”

      No it’s not. It pulls in a lot of other issues, and you get stupidities like ‘people voted for Brexit because it was in the Labour manifesto’ . Which demonstrably untrue at the last election, and won’t be any more supported at the next.

      We are trapped where we are because of a stupidly framed referendum, and now the only way forward is by another – like it or not.

      • I look forward to hearing what Question(s) you think would be appropriate in a 2nd Referundum?

      • All feasible options (which excludes WTO crash). Certainly with ‘Remain’ as one.

      • To date there have been three Parliamentary votes seeking a further referendum/’PV.’. All have been lost.

        There is absolutely zero evidence that the necessary legislation for a further referendum/’PV’ will get through the current Parliament given the existing Parliamentary arithmetic. The only realistic way of achieving the necessary legislation for another binary vote on the issue is to change the Parliamentary arithmetic.

        Traditionally the normal way of going about achieving a change in the Parliamentary arithmetic is via a General Election. Consequently, the only realistic way enable the necessary legislation to pass through Parliament is to have a General Election first rather than putting the cart before the hose as is being suggested here.

        However, whilst that is the necessary, realistic and logical means and route to achieve the goal of another referendum it is not a sufficient means to achieve the (albeit assumed) objective of obtaining a sufficiently large enough majority to remain.

        To achieve that objective will require the key factors which underpinned and continue to hold up the leave vote in many Northern and Midlands communities (which the LP will need to retain and take to form a Government) are properly addressed.

        And no this is not about immigration. It’s about the policy consensus – followed not just between the three traditional Westminster Parties ( NL/ Tory/OB Lib Dems) but also the single markets of the UK and EU alike (see here for one example of the nonsense which is tearing the EU apart: https://www.socialeurope.eu/output-gap-nonsense ) – over the past forty years of de-industrialisation and subsequent austerity which has hollowed out communities across many parts of the country.

        A policy consensus which took for granted the traditional LP base and the communities in which they are situated with the arrogant and disdainful approach that “they have nowhere else to go.”

        Well many of those communities did find somewhere else to go and in England that has has resulted in providing fertile ground for the extreme political right; along with many areas in seats the LP need to retain and win voting to leave.

        In these circumstances there is zero milage in pointing out the blindingly obvious that leaving the EU will make things worse for those communities as the firm response will be along the lines of we have nothing left to lose anyway.

        One example will suffice as to the futility of that line of argument. At the turn of the century S. Yorkshire received £1b of EU Objective One funding for former Steel and mining communities. Yet in the ten years following that funding the GDP of S. Yorkshire was below that of Greece and only overtook Greece on that measure at the onset of the Greek financial crisis. Ditto for the West Midlands, whose GDP fell below Greece in the aftermath of the financial crash around 2007-08.

        At present this reality is recognised by those in the LP who actually know their arse from their elbow. To win any second vote requires a Government which takes a different approach on both policies and the underlying values from the failed nonsense of the past four decades.

        The simplistic comfort blanket of dismissing many Labour or former Labour voting areas and communities who voted leave in Constituencies the Party needs to retain and win to form a Government as being only about immigration is lazy thinking. It echoes the arrogance of the nowhere else to go position of the NL/extreme centerists/Progress factions of the Party.

        The fact is that any second vote which is held without addressing those issues will be a disaster. The likelihood of confirming the 2016 result will put a double lock on Brexit. A narrow remain win will further drive those communities away from those Parties (in England) with an economically progressive agenda and approach and towards Parties at the extreme end of the the political spectrum.

        As such, the forlone and Quixote hope of achieving a second vote and winning it without changing the Parliamentary arithmetic and putting in place a Labour Government committed to a different approach to the failed policy consensus of the past four decades which is required to achieve the necessary number of votes to win for remaining is about as strategically inept as you can get.

  5. Errr …. um …. I reckon that the catastrophic collapse of the Tory vote might have something to do with it – masking the *fall* in the Labour percentage share over time.

    Tho’ the Panelbase poll of 23-24th April shows Labour on 36%. Is this the same poll? So where does -4% come from?

    It is also necessary to look at the fact that Panelbase, like Yougov comes up with anomalous results, which also may be to do with its sampling methodology.

    … and no – the ‘surge’ for the LibDems+Greens wasn’t illusory. It was actual in electoral terms : the ‘stay at home’ factor is as real as any vote. (Tho’ of course, we *know* it was Yvette Cooper’s fault 🙂 )

    • Nationally the swing against the Tory and Labour Party was minus 7% each. Yet the Lib Dems only managed a swing of plus 2%. Some surge.

      Although the Greens did well the bulk of the Tory losses were either hoovered up by other pro- Brexit parties (independents like the Yorkshire Party, UKIP etc) or stay at home votes which won’t happen come any GE or mythical/fabled ‘Peoples Vote’ (which is dependent upon the legendary guarantee – at least a year old – of the never realised pro EU Tory rebellion to get the necessary legislation through Parliament).

  6. Paul

    “A General Election is a better way of deciding Brexit.”

    I agree that normally a referendum is not the best way to conduct government but unless in a GE Labour received a large majority, enough to out vote everyone else, including the wreckers in our own Party, AND therefore were able to kick Brexit into touch – congratulations to Liverpool 🙂 – the Brexit fiasco will continue.

  7. MPs promised that we would be leaving EU, the date given 29th March, 2019. How can you ever trust any politician to ever keep their word about anything? Lies………….betrayal, the lips are moving again……………trust gone.

    • Steve, because of our decades long involvement with the EU it was impossible for us to ‘just leave’ as some would have us believe. Therefore it was inevitable that by the time any deal had been reached the original decision, because of a shift in demographics, would be stale.

      It should have been made clear to the electorate therefore that the final deal would be subject to their approval. The fact it wasn’t made clear at the time is down to the incompetence of our politicians.

      • “Steve, because of our decades long involvement with the EU it was impossible for us to ‘just leave’ as some would have us believe.”

        I despair that such nonsense – demonstrably undermined by the Brexit negotiating incompetents of the Tory ‘Whethefukawe’ Party – is still being peddled.

        It also needs to be said that Labour was in no position anyway to guarantee such a boneheaded promise – and the ‘clever’ tactics (‘honouring the referendum’/Article 50 debacle) have amounted to being dragged along behind the Tories’ agenda.

      • You are undoubtedly right, Steve.

        Which is the problem … an agreement across the floor of the house to let the brain go walkabout in the cause of cowardice and lack of foresight.

  8. I notice that the latest YouGov poll drops the Labour lead to 3%. You pays yer money ….

    … which is why looking at the time series and moving averages is more profitable than seizing on any individual poll that suits.

    Best estimate? – somewhere around 5-6% lead currently. Brexit and UKIP votes clearly coming from the Tories – whence they will eventually return despite the illusory conviction that a significant number are Labour’s. Sorry – the ‘Leave’ strategy is maxed out, leaving waverers/abstainers and the LibDem/Green pond to be fished.

    Not rocket science.

  9. New referendum options should be: No Deal, May’s Deal (hard brexit), Labour Deal (soft brexit) and No Brexit with preference votes so that the final vote would be between No Deal and No Brexit which are the only real options. A GE will not solve the Brexit crisis unless promising another referendum.

    • May’s deal is most definitely not hard brexit. Floppy brexit would be a better description. She has (with help from her multiple brexit ministers) capitulated at every step. The withdrawal agreement was written and designed by the EU.

      May’s brexit one has one redeeming feature. It’ll unite leavers and remainers due to it being the crappiest deal possible.

      • “The withdrawal agreement was written and designed by the EU.”

        Aaaaah! Poor ickle Leaver UK. Always being bested.

        Trouble is – there’s a reason. It’s about being led by dickheads who aren’t up to the job, pursuing an illusory policy of self-harm that has made the country a pathetic international joke.

        Defeat neoliberalism and corporatism? Not a chance with this level of unintelligence.

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