Opinium CEO writes pro-centrist article – just after publishing controversial poll showing Lab behind

A curiously coincidently article

Shaun Lawson is an academic who has recently done outstanding work dismantling anti-Labour smears.

This morning, he published a thread showing that the chief executive of polling company Opinium – which last week happened to publish a wildly-outlying poll showing Labour seven points behind the Tories – had just written an article for the Guardian advocating for “a more progressively centrist approach in British politics”.

Or even the formation of a new party:

Great work again by Shaun Lawson.

SKWAWKBOX comment:

Lawson’s unease at the publication of such an article so soon after the author’s company ‘just so happens’ to publish such an outlier poll is hard to disagree with.

The SKWAWKBOX needs your support. This blog is provided free of charge but depends on the generosity of its readers to be viable. If you can afford to, please click here to arrange a one-off or modest monthly donation via PayPal or here for a monthly donation via GoCardless. Thanks for your solidarity so this blog can keep bringing you information the Establishment would prefer you not to know about.

If you wish to reblog this post for non-commercial use, you are welcome to do so – see here for more.


  1. Shaun’d best be putting on his Brodie helmet to await the ludicrous ‘antisemite’ barrage that’ll no doubt be heading his way again after writing something that shows us what the bairites & ‘centrists’ are about…

  2. If the Conservatives are so confident about the polls and the Blairites are confident of success of a breakaway ‘centre party’, why haven’t they called and election and why haven’t they broken away to form a ‘centre party’?

    How I wish either could make such a miscalculation!

  3. I wonder how long it will take for some people who claim to be on the left to wake up to what the Guardian is?

    1. The numerous Fake Lefts may be too busy trying to get Dennis Skinner deselected to notice that.

    2. Someone just posted the following comment in the Comments section of the Indy re article about Tory poll lead of 7 points. Or should I say a propagandist! The Comments section is full of them:

      ‘The Poll seems to confirm that Labour is losing support in droves, Labour are now official the fastest SHRINKING political Party in Europe losing 1/3 of its members in the past 2 months as reported to the Electoral Commission by Labour.’


      1. And please help Tony (Greenstein) if you can to fight his case against the CAA (the link I put previously to a specific article Tony posted re his legal action is now bringing up something different, so here’s the article posted on another website):


        PS It’s funny THAT should happen when I just spent an hour or more this morning emailing twenty local Momentum groups about it, with a link to said article of course!

    3. The same amount of time it’ll take them to realise that they are in fact, illiberal liberals and have no links to the left.

    4. John

      “I wonder how long it will take for some people who claim to be on the left to wake up to what the Guardian is?”

      It’s hard to wake from a coma.

  4. The whole purpose of a new “centrist party” is to let the Tories in.

    All it will do is split a few Labour seats in the South East and London and possiblly a few Lib Dem seats too.

    I’m no fan of the Lib Dems, but their members are not a bunch of Blairites. I really can’t see supporters of the party of Charles Kennedy wanting to back the pro-war, pro-corporate and pro-privatisation wing of New Labour. The idea that they will want their party to either be 1) swamped with Blairites or 2) assimilate with the likes of John “Saudi” Woodcock or Angela “privatise water to the Chinese communists” Smith, is ludicrous.

    Incidentally for ages the media has peddled the narrative that Labour are unpatriotic and out of touch with the working class. Can anyone explain how a new centrist party which will almost certainly be a pro-globalisation, pro-war, open door immigration Europhile party of finance capital is somehow going to get the working class vote? So much for the working class support of En Marche – look how well that’s going.

    This is a London media invention and nothing more. It’s effectively newspeak – the same way that the Women’s Equality Party is treated as a serious party, or that Gidiot Osborne is now defined as a “centrist”.

    If anything there is more support for the polar opposite of a so-called “centrist party” – a Kate Hoey style Labour party (red in economics, patriotic and socially conservative).

      1. The article is even more foolish than your own contributions to the debate Danny.I wonder how it will take you to realise that no one here is interested in your sectarian left outpourings.

    1. I’m a supporter of the party of Charles Kennedy. I voted Lib Dem in every election from their formation up to and including the 2010 General Election.

      It wasn’t even their going into coalition with the Tories that ended it for me. It was when they voted in favour of secret courts, and other things that went directly against the core principles of the party.

      So, do I want a new centrist party? Hell no. When I heard the ideas Corbyn was putting forward, it wasn’t just that I agreed with them. It was that he was saying what I had long believed. I am now a staunch Corbynista.

      Well, there is one service a new centre party could do: take all the Blairite dead wood and sink it without trace.

      1. I’d like to think most of us agree that Charles Kennedy was a good man, whichever side of politics you are on – and he’d have been a good Prime Minister if he ever had the chance.

        I do think a lot of Lib Dem voters want the Nordic economic model over here, which is not so dissimilar to the 2017 manifesto after all.

    2. “Kate Hoey style Labour party (red in economics, patriotic and socially conservative).”

      You mean a backward-looking offer on patronising UKIP fantasy lines with prejudice shored up by a few pork-barrel bungs?

      What a nightmare. Should extinguish Labour chanes of success very comprehensively.

      1. I didn’t say it would necessarily be a good thing. But I do think there would be more support for a new “Red UKIP Party” than a new “Corporate Liberal Party”.

        Perhaps that is because of the area I am in though – a traditional heartland. Those who oppose Corbyn here also oppose the EU, the establishment and identity politics – but also aren’t economically right wing and aren’t in favour of foreign wars. I see absolutely no support for any variant of what amounts to “Mandelsonian Cleggism” here.

      2. You mean a version of neo fascist “Strasserism” or “Pujadism” , Dogpole ? There is certainly a political market for a UKIP, transformed from its saloon bar Tory origins – to a Pujadist /Strasserite neo fascist organisation aimed at the (White) unskilled, poorer, working class – with a nominally “anti capitalist” xenophobic, petty nationalist message . In fact that seems to be precisely where UKIP is heading – now Tommy Robinson is on board . Yep, I can certainly see the ghastly Kate Hoey as part of that (if it took off electorally) .

      1. I’m not attempting to defend the Lib Dems. Merely suggesting that any new centrist party could split their vote too, and if there was a merger – many of their members may not take kindly to being shoved in a party with assorted Blairites.

        My own political position is for a left wing Labour government outside of the EU.

    3. There is nothing vaguely Left about the weird , fox hunting, Kate Hoey’s ,economics or wider politics. I know she was once in the IMG as a young student – but she’s nowadays just a rabid Little Englander version of a neoliberal.

  5. The present Labour party is the progressive centrist party that James Enderby wants, which is why their popular sensible policies got 40% of the vote at the last general election compared to the 29% & 30% that Brown & Miliband got.
    Maybe Ed Miliband wanted to be more progressive but his shadow cabinet got hijacked by New Labour and any progressive left-wingers were ejected (see the fuss they kicked up to get Emily Thornberry out of the shadow cabinet over a harmless photo).
    What Enderby actually wants, in my view, is a semi-Tory Labour party, rather than a progressive centrist one.

    1. I’d not even call them Tories – as they don’t like nation states, patriotism, tradition or history. They just want “corporate liberalism”. Right wing economics, coupled with massive globalisation and lots of identity politics so they can appear “right on”. Think Deliveroo supporting gay pride – screw the front line workers (straight or gay) as long as we make money and crucially look liberal and nothing like those stuffy Tories. Lip service bollocks and PR ahoy!

      Basically Everything is a market and everyone is a global brand. Deviate from this and you are a horrible socialist or nasty nationalist…

      1. Excellent description of the cancer affecting western politics. While we argue about gender neutral toilets, they can transfer wealth and resources.

  6. Endersley is also a Director of ‘My Life My Say’ to “secure a better Brexit for young people”. “Non-partisan charity” ‘My Life My Say’ is also the secretariat for an APPG “Better Brexit for Young People” – guess who that is run by: “Chaired by Stephen Kinnock MP, with several committed Vice-Chairs; Caroline Lucas MP, Anna Soubry MP, Andrew Rosindell MP, Tom Brake MP and Lord Triesman.” You can guess what the outlook of this “non-partisan charity” is then.

  7. Another non-story to feed the ‘Infamy’ mindset.

    Actuality : Opinium CE writes an opinion piece; Lecturer writes an alternative opinion piece. Score draw.

    As to the actual polls? Well – this one looks like an outlier that shouldn’t be given too much weight. Opinium’s record doesn’t actually show any particular bias, unlike YouGov’s consistent weighting towards the Tories. In fact, Opinium was the most accurate prediction of the ‘Leave’ vote in the referendum. It’s last poll showed a lead for Labour.

    So go to The Observer of the Evil Empire to see the LibDem-slewed comment. Which is :

    “Polls have been largely stable in recent months, with the two main parties remaining almost neck and neck. Last month’s Opinium poll showed Labour enjoying a three-point lead. More polling will be required to see if there has been a reliable and sustained shift.”

    Hardly an anti-Labour diatribe. Admittedly the first three paragraphs of the report play up the Tory lead without much reservation, after that the report is fairly balanced, and no advocacy of a second vote.

    No poll is definitive, and one thing is for sure – the situation is so febrile that there may well be odd-looking swings according to a number of external factors and internal design issues. This one certainly seems an oddity in terms of its findings on share of the vote. But there is no evidence of bending the results to a particular political end.

    In summary : Nothing much to see here. Move along.

    The time-series summary of polls, however, *is* worth looking at


    1. There you are RH! We were getting a bit worried as you haven’t been trolling the comments section of this site as regularly and heavily as normal in the last few days.

      We thought you’d left to join the Liberal Democrats or the new Blairire centrist party.

      Welcome back! Troll away!

      1. ‘Troll’ Def. : Someone who disagrees with me and, worse, has an actual argument.

        Some of the comments here really must come from the satirized Peoples’ Judaean Front.

        … or a basic literacy class.

        Beyond that, there’s one correction to what I wrote. A second vote *is* mentioned in passing, with a roughly equal percentage of the electorate favouring it to those favouring a crash-out.

      2. You just can’t help yourself, can you? You always have to insult people. That’s why you are troll!

      3. RH , Internal Affairs IMO has a valid point and your pompous self righteousness on your so called arguments , is self defeating. Just take a look at your responses …. satirized Peoples’ Judaean Front.
        … or a basic literacy class.

        Talk about “better than thou” it may just be that they’ve not had the benefit of a first class education yet you purport to be a socialist . Not in my book you’re not mate

      4. I’ve got to grin at the total lack of awareness and sense of irony that this little self-regarding gang in the corner of the playground has – in complaining about personalised insult and self -regard – like a pick-pockets moaning about theft.

      5. P.S. I note there’s no argument made about what I posted. Must be frustrating to have nothing of substance to say. But white noise isn’t really a substitute.

  8. Throw him on Universal Credit then sanction him.

    I’m so sick to death of the Guardian and the middle classes stepping over the corpses of the austerity dead on their way to the brasserie. I’ve had my fill.

    1. Spot on LoftK ,,, me too , fuck the Graun and its fake “leftisim” its for the brasserie croissant chomping lattes brigade .
      SB , Novara Media and The Canary etc for me at least they are honest about where they stand .

      1. “the Graun and its fake “leftisim” its for the brasserie croissant chomping lattes brigade”

        Wow!! What a blow for the working class. I’m sure that sort of parody’ll show the Tories who’s boss and strike fear into the souls of the plutocrats!

        Much better to Follow the Sun and rant about the EU!

      2. Shall I order you another latte and croissant to go with your Gruan reading RH , the lack of awareness and irony applies to yourself , lets diss the labour supporters and voters who happen to read the S*n ( can’t stand the shit it is but it don’t pretend to be a friend of Labour ) , and of course lets shoehorn your pet fetish the EU into it as well , trigger time , Q rant …..

      3. “lets diss the labour supporters and voters who happen to read the S*n”

        Nah. Let’s diss the pseuds who pretend that reading the Sun is some badge of working class essential authenticity and that the answer to neoliberalsm is rattling on in a primitive reversal of class snobbery.

        My earlier reference to basic literacy was about the need for the ability to read what is actually written in many of the frothing remarks made – which clearly betray a lack of comprehension (as well as an irony bypass).

        It was you who made a ridiculously daft typification of Guardian readers, and than an equally daft typification of Sun readers in some attempt at left wing virtue.

        Copying the narrow, bone-headed attitudes to class of the sheltered and privileged and then inverting the image isn’t a mark of penetrating radical thought and virtue.

        It’s just a bit simple-minded.

      4. Well RH I gave you the benefit of the doubt whereas others called you out for trolling ,however your latest missive/ rant IMO has proved them right, you are a fool .Shame really as in the past, as I’ve mentioned on previous threads , some of your comments and the content have been reasonable , but you have descended most recently especially around your obsession over Brexit , into plain insulting derogatory behaviour which is counter to persuading those over to your POV .
        In fact it does the opposite, resulting in equally or escalating insulting responses to you and your comments.
        You seem incapable of recognising and accommodating others POV without denigrating or trivialising them . You want to persuade them , then “can” the antagonistic language , and before you start with the “lack irony or a comprehension bypass ” I am deliberately trying to educate you by example , re my most recent antagonistic responses to you , you don’t like it , do you , well neither do I or for that matter many others here on SB . Their responses illustrate that point clearly and it’s you who needs to check the comprehension of what’s written .
        It’s not just the words you write but the way and tone and implied meaning behind them , you know very well what you are saying and doing .
        We don’t have to like each other or get along but one hopes that in our own CLPs we are working to ensure a JC lead socialist Govt and that is the best and only result that matters .
        Respond as you wish but as I’ve said earlier I won’t be wasting further time with you on this thread , there are more useful and interesting things to do in life.

    2. Fair enough, Rob. There is a solution other than jumping on a chair at the sight of a mouse. I guess you’ve just confirmed the irony bypass in caricaturing my initial posts on various topics, and ignoring the pattern of response from a handful. The personalisation has always been the response of that handful here who cannot, or fail to, muster an argument and foam away at some imagined author who doesn’t accept :”I agree with you, Nick – xxx is terrible” as a response to an area of disagreement.

      I may be at fault in responding in kind to the issue-ducking playground stuff but not of initiating the fantasy bundle of ad hominem shite, knee-jerk assumptions and lazy class typifications that avoids the real question. It needs to be called out, especially when it lazily caricatures the actual nature of the Labour Party and swathes of the Labour vote

      Physician – heal thyself.

    1. Forgot to include comment…… so anyway, I’ve posted it (again) near the top of the comments section above.

    2. I really despise the human race at the moment.

      Vulnerable UK citizens are dying in Victorian poverty yet the Conservative Party is still healthy.

      What does that tell you about British society and the human race?

      1. loftkarisson

        What does that tell you about British society and the human race?

        We’re suffering from chronic Stockholm Syndrome! Or we’re masochists.

        Or both…

      2. L – bit of an homogenous view of humanity?
        As socialists and activists and those who have read, read, read yes we are a minority of the mass of people and the rich and powerful (pro-Capitalists) control hegemony (the media etc) but we are in a daily battle and at times it is really hard.
        I was a bit down yesterday re what the Right in the US is trying to do in Venezuela but today their tactics have become farcical and perhaps the Right Wing Barbarians are not as clever as they think they are although they have power and resources we have the most politically aware of each other in every country too and we just need to keep trying to wake up the many.
        Perhaps we need to turn language against the Neo-Liberal Righf such as “the dependency culture” – it is really that of the rich and poweful who are completely dependent on billions of diverse working people turning up for work tomorrow in every country!
        “Wealth creation” yes by the labour of the working billions who all also make societies work too.
        If we think about it – everything is dead – machines, computers, trains, buses etc. etc. until you add one magic ingredient – diverse working people.
        As Joe Hill once said: “Don’t mourn, organise!”

    3. Well last time Labour were supposedly 20 points behind and the Tories lost their majority…

      Assuming this poll is accurate (and I suspect not) as soon as election season starts again and impartiality on the broadcast media is required, the Tory support will start fading again.

      May will likely not be leading the party into the next election – so there will be the whole leadership battle to contend with. Johnson and Mogg will be far too divisive to win anything. Gove’s wife is an electoral liablity. Rudd has questions to answer about everything from Windrush to Saudi Arabia to Universal Credit – and a tiny majority. Javid’s pro-Ayn Randism and banker background will become an issue. Hunt is despised. The Tory grassroots won’t back any Remainers anyway. Doesn’t leave them many choices. Grayling? hahahhahaha!

  9. Many commenters seem to be forgetting or deliberately ignoring, that most if not all of the wreckers belong to the Israeli Lobby. Which is why I would be surprised if any of them leave. They know they can do more damage to Corbyn by remaining in the Party than if they leave.

    No doubt they are waiting for their instructions from Tel Aviv.

  10. Follow Tim Farron’s motion & join his Party in oblivion. The working class victims of austerity will never forgive the bourgeois elites.

  11. “Vulnerable UK citizens are dying in Victorian poverty yet the Conservative Party is still healthy.
    What does that tell you about British society and the human race?”

    I think it tells us that right wing governments haven’t allowed enough of us to acquire the education we all deserve.
    The very fact of a Tory government winning more than a tiny minority of votes proves that.
    Self-evidently every one of the un-wealthy who votes Tory has been duped – because a Tory win is a result of at least half the electorate voting for their own relative poverty.

    It’s commonly said that we get the government we deserve – but those who for whatever reason lack the education confidently to challenge MSM propaganda are blameless.
    It’s the educated un-wealthy who aspire to become wealthy on the backs of the many who are to blame.

  12. Left wing democratic socialists should vote for left wing democratic socialists and we actually stand for more than the Right’s crumbs for working people!
    I saw Jeremy speak a few weeks ago and he mentioned how in the 1900s a number of Lithuanian Jewish workers went to work in the Scottish coalfields but the unscrupulous private mine owners there were using them to undercut wages (which already weren’t too high) and this was causing community tensions.
    So what did the Miners Leader, Keir Hardie, do, join in the criticisms?
    No he got them to join the miners federation and built community solidarity.
    What finer Leader could we want and one who can draw from history too!

  13. ” he got them to join the miners federation and built community solidarity”


    The success of the Tories has been to persuade people that the Sun and Mail etc. attacking the Trade Union movement is a representation of their own interests. It’s the learned helplessness that’s the problem.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: