Tory 1922 Committee chair Graham Brady has asked Theresa May for a meeting tomorrow, when she is back from her tour of EU leaders. He is expected to tell her that enough Tory MPs have confirmed their letters of no confidence in her leadership to trigger a full vote of the party’s MPs.
If May loses the vote, it will be the end of her tenure and she will not be eligible to stand in the ensuing leadership election – but if she wins, she cannot be challenged again for twelve months.
The wisdom of Labour’s decision to hold off on a no-confidence motion is now clear. With new leadership election underway, the chances of a successful motion would be almost non-existent and a new leader is likely have a ‘honeymoon period’ in the media, among Tory MPs and the DUP.
But if May defeats the challenge, her personal fate and that of the government will be bound together – along with the fate of her dire Brexit deal. This would strengthen the chances of the DUP siding with Labour on a confidence motion considerably.
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