The latest Ipsos Mori poll contained some remarkable news, as electoral analyst and gambler Mike Smithson pointed out today:
Read that again.
Amongst everyone who expressed a preference to Ipsos Mori, Labour lead the Tories by three percent – just 6 weeks after being, supposedly, 24 points behind when May called the election.
Corbyn began to hack away at that lead as soon as campaigning began. And now it looks, for the first time, like pollsters are discovering what the rest of us have been intuiting.
He has his nose in front.
But – and that’s a big but – when Ipsos Mori factors in expected turnout, the numbers swing by eight percent to give the Tories a five-point lead.
What this means, in essence, is that Labour can remove the Tories next week but everything depends on turnout.
Decisions are made by those who turn up – or in this case, turn out.
There are huge reasons for optimism:
- almost three million people applied to vote in this election who were not previously entitled to
- of those, 2.2 million are under 35 years old – a demographic that favours Corbyn by a considerable distance
- elderly people have been deserting the Tories because of their plans to introduce the dementia tax, to remove the winter fuel allowance from millions of pensioners – and to deprive their grandchildren of free school meals
- millions of people did not vote in 2015, many of whom may choose to vote in 2017 now that they have a genuine choice rather than between two main parties with a similar (and now thoroughly discredited) view on austerity
- leadership approval ratings have transformed in an unprecedented way now that the people have chance to see the real Corbyn instead of just hearing what biased pundits say about him, as journalist Faisal Islam reported:
Turnout is key – but we are not passive spectators waiting to see whether people are as motivated to go and vote as we hope they are.
Momentum’s ‘Election Day Pledge‘ site lets you make a difference – lets you affect turnout. And if enough of us make a difference – that can make all the difference to whether the UK faces hope or despair on the morning of 9 June.
Journalist Paul Mason explains in forceful terms:
What are you doing on Election Day? Can you spare the day or some part of it?
Do you want to see an end to the nightmare of Tory government? If so, then if you possibly can – take the pledge. Give yourself, your family, friends, the young, elderly, vulnerable, poor, the gift of hope.
Sign up to turn up, so others turn out.
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