It’s not just immoral and illegal – UK’s collusion in Israel’s Gaza genocide hurts its cold national interest

Journalist David Keys concludes that even if humanity and law don’t move you, heartless national interest means UK must act against the genocidal state

The text of this article is reproduced from one first published in North-East Bylines. It does not reflect Skwawkbox’s position on all matters.

The UK Prime Minister has told the Israeli government that Britain will recognise the State of Palestine this September – unless Israel agrees to a Gaza ceasefire, allows the UN to fully restart the supply of aid, commits to a ‘two state’ solution Israel and Palestine peace process and guarantees that the West Bank will not be annexed.

But without even tougher pressure (economic sanctions etc or the unambiguous threat of them) from Britain and other major countries, Israel is extremely unlikely to take any notice.

The sort of additional measures which the UK and other governments need to now seriously consider should clearly include:

• Suspending the current UK/Israel trade agreement
• Stopping all arms and military-related exports to Israel (including any other goods that are likely to indirectly assist Israel’s militarily)
• Stopping most imports from Israel (because Israeli export earnings help indirectly to finance its murderous war on Gaza and its oppressive illegal occupation of – and ethnic cleansing and illegal settlement-building activities in –  the West Bank)
• Outlawing all UK trade with the illegally-occupied West Bank, in terms of goods, services and investment etc.
• Substantially reducing flights between the UK and Israel (because flights help tourism and trade that generates income which indirectly then helps fund Israel’s war on Gaza and its illegal occupation and oppression of the West Bank.
• Making Israeli soldiers and civil servants etc, suspected of potential involvement in war crimes and crimes against humanity, liable to investigation and arrest in the UK
• Making it illegal for UK citizens to serve in or assist the Israel Defence Forces
• Energetically engaging with other countries to encourage them to take similar actions.

Forcing Israel to change direction is not just important from a Palestinian human rights and regional peace perspective. It’s also utterly crucial from a British and overall western political and geopolitical perspective.

So here is a ten-part analysis describing why Israel’s ongoing behaviour is so damaging to Britain and the western world – and why tough action is needed in order to have any chance of convincing Israel to change direction. It is the first time that all the arguments have been brought together in one article:

(1) The Gaza War is increasing, not decreasing, the global threat from terrorism

Israel’s mass slaughter of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza (and the increasing levels of malnutrition and starvation) are proving to be effective ‘recruiting sergeants’ for the world’s major terrorist networks. Already last year the UK’s domestic intelligence organisation, MI5, warned of “the risks that events in the Middle East [may] directly trigger terrorist attacks in the UK”. Indeed MI5’s Director General said that the terrorist threat that concerns him most is “the worsening threat from Al Qaeda and, in particular, Islamic State”. MI5 has detected an increased number of such threats to UK security from large terror organisations. But the Gaza war is also increasing the number of ‘off radar’ unknown ‘lone wolf’ potential (often very young) terrorists who have been radicalised by Israel’s horrific actions in Gaza.

Courtesy of Israel’s war on Gaza, Islamic State (IS) is regaining momentum in Syria and Iraq . It is also active in at least a dozen other countries in the Middle East, West Africa, central Africa, South Asia, the Caucasus – and even in Gaza (bizarrely and very controversially helped by Israel because it is anti Hamas!). Worldwide, it currently has around 15,000 fighters. 

Although much smaller than IS, Al Qaeda has also been boosted by Israel’s war against Gaza. The organisation is now active in at least five areas – Mali, Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen and almost certainly also Gaza, where they presumably hope to fill the Islamist political vacuum caused by Israel’s partial weakening of Hamas.

(2) The Gaza war is weakening Britain’s key Arab allies and partners

The Gaza war is damaging the UK’s global influence by weakening several of Britain’s key allies in the Middle East.

In Jordan, for instance, the war has massively increased public support for the main anti-western political party in that country (the Islamic Action Front [IAF] – the political arm of Jordan’s pro-Hamas Muslim Brotherhood). They won 34% of the vote in last year’s Jordanian general election, making them by far the largest political party in the Jordanian parliament. And what has been described by Jordanian political analysts as “an extraordinary result” constitutes a major challenge to the very pro-UK and pro-western Jordanian government, which has this year banned the Muslim Brotherhood, of which the IAF is the political wing.                        

The major Gaza-related anti-Israel protest marches in Jordan over the past 21 months have been led by the IAF – and it is Israel’s Gaza war which has driven that party’s electoral success. Although they don’t have a majority in parliament, their meteoric rise in popularity (courtesy of Israel’s Gaza war) is likely to make the Jordanian government much more cautious In its relationship with the West. In effect the rise of an anti-western political party in Jordan will almost certainly compromise the UK’s and the West’s ability to influence events in that country.

Israel’s ongoing slaughter in Gaza also threatens the stability of another major UK Middle Eastern ally – namely Egypt. With a population of 115 million people and exceptionally high levels of poverty, the Egyptian government was (prior to October 2023) contemplating a move towards a degree of political and economic liberalisation – but the Gaza war has prevented that from happening.

The Egyptian authorities feared that with half the population living in poverty and with mounting anti-Israel and anti-western anger over Gaza, political liberalisation would be too dangerous – and that economic reform might upset Egypt’s powerful army (which owns substantial sectors of the economy and which the government relies on to keep it in power).

But the Gaza-war-related failure to introduce political and economic reforms (and reduce poverty) is turning the country into a ‘pressure-cooker’ state which could explode politically at any time (as happened in the anti-government revolution of 2011). Certainly, if large numbers of Palestinians die of Israeli-imposed starvation in neighbouring Gaza (and if the current Egyptian leadership is unable to stop that happening) stability in Egypt could very rapidly deteriorate.

The Gaza war is also making Egypt more vulnerable to destabilisation in several other ways. Pro-Palestinian Yemeni attacks on Israel-bound and other western shipping in the Red Sea have led to a big decline in traffic through the Suez Canal and that in turn has substantially damaged Egypt’s economy. What’s more, Israel’s war on Gaza has made Egyptian payments to Israel for crucial gas supplies increasingly controversial and harmful to the Egyptian government’s public credibility.

(3) The Gaza war (and the Israeli/US attacks on Iran) have strengthened the power of Iranian anti-western hardliners and increased, not decreased, the likelihood of Iran ultimately developing nuclear weapons

The Gaza war (and the West’s refusal to take tough action to restrain Israel) – and Israel and America’s attacks on Iran – are likely to have convinced the Iranian government that nuclear-armed Israel is a ruthless opponent and that Israel (and the US) pose a major long-term threat to Iran and that becoming a nuclear power is the only way to counter that threat.     

The Israeli and US attacks, which of course took place within the context of the Gaza war, have also very substantially strengthened the power of Iranian hardliners, weakened more moderate politicians and have persuaded the majority of the population to support the government’s efforts to defend the country.                              

The Israeli/US threat has made it much easier for Iranian hardliners to successfully argue that Iran needs a nuclear deterrent. The only way to potentially reverse that is to make Iran feel genuinely less threatened – and the only way to do that is to achieve a more peaceful and less polarised Middle East – and a fair and just solution to the Israel/Palestine conflict would be a major component in reaching that goal. But the first stage on that road must be for Britain and other Western countries to take extremely tough and persuasive action against Israel to ensure a rapid end to the Gaza conflict and a cessation of Israeli aggressive actions on the West Bank and elsewhere.

(4) Israel’s war on Gaza is damaging Britain and the West’s standing in the world

The contrast between the UK and many other Western countries’ attitudes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli obliteration of Gaza and much of its population is stark in the extreme. Indeed, the contrast is so substantial that, to most of the world, it looks like total hypocrisy (and potentially even murderous racism).

The West is clearly right to take tough action against Russia over its appalling invasion of Ukraine – but has equally clearly not applied the same rules to Israel’s almost total destruction of Gaza and its slaughter of tens of thousands of Palestinians.

That hypocrisy is having three dire consequences. It’s wrecked any reputation for fairness that Britain and the West may have had – and it has totally destroyed much of the world’s faith in the rule of international law and the authority of the United Nations. But it has also fatally undermined the West’s ability to advance moral and political arguments as to why the Global South should also sanction Russia for its war on Ukraine. 

The fact that Ukrainians are white Europeans and that Palestinians are, on the whole, non-white Middle Eastern non-Europeans is not lost on a world in which most people are not of white European origin.

The reputational damage, that British and western material backing for the perpetrators of industrial scale mass killing of non-Europeans has done to the UK and other Western countries’ image worldwide, is immense. And the longer the war goes on, the worse and more permanent and the more harmful that damage will be

(5) The Gaza war and consequent instability in the Middle East is a threat to the world’s economy

Approximately 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped via the Strait of Hormuz (the entrance to and exit from the Arabian Gulf) which is just 24 miles wide and is vulnerable to being blocked by the Iranians in the event of wider war.

 What’s more, up to 10% of the world’s seaborne crude oil and up to 8% of its liquid natural gas is transported via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal (and the entrance to the Red Sea – the 16 mile wide Babel Mandeb strait – which is equally vulnerable in time of war).

 In terms of total international trade, around 12% normally passes through the Suez Canal (the waterway linking Europe to most of Asia) but the Gaza war has forced up to two-thirds of ships to sail all the way around Africa, thus adding thousands of miles to journeys and consequently pushing up the price of a wide range of goods. All these factors tend to push up inflation which can of course lead to recessions.

(6) The Gaza war helps increase poverty and instability which trigger migration flows in many different parts of the world

Israel’s war against Gaza (and its destabilising impacts elsewhere in the Middle East) are factors in increasing migration flows – not only from the Middle East, but also elsewhere, most notably from South Asia.

Two-thirds of migrants applying for asylum in the UK are from the Middle East and South Asia.

Within the wider context of the Gaza war, Israel has mounted attacks against Syria, which threatens to contribute to further political destabilisation there, which will in turn almost certainly generate additional migration flows from Syria to Europe/UK. That phenomenon will then in turn be exploited by the extreme right in the UK and other European countries in order to promote political instability here and elsewhere.

In the previous section of this article, I mentioned how the Gaza war threatens the global economy. Particularly vulnerable are countries already experiencing mass poverty.

Two such South Asian countries – Pakistan and Bangladesh – already generate substantial migration flows to the UK/Europe and those flows are likely to increase if war and instability continue and expand in the Middle East. As with all the other phenomena mentioned in the sections above, it is in Britain’s interest to take the toughest possible actions to force Israel to change its behaviour.

(7) The Gaza war is helping Russia in Ukraine

Israel’s war against Gaza has served Russia’s president Putin exceptionally well and continues to do so.

It has served to distract western public and political attention (and military and other resources) away from Ukraine – to the direct benefit of Putin.

Israel’s slaughter of Gaza’s population (and the West’s refusal to rein Netanyahu in) is massively alienating the Global South – and is therefore encouraging large numbers of countries to move closer to Putin, at a time that Britain and much of the West have been desperately trying to isolate him politically and economically. It has enabled Russia to more productively participate in the BRICS Russia/China/Global-South alliance – a process that is, without doubt, contrary to British and western interests.

Indeed, the Gaza war has helped unify the BRICS nations, as their robust criticism of Israel and America just a few weeks ago demonstrated. It is a process that has been assisted by the West’s politically-unwise hypocrisy – namely its refusal to punish Israel for its appalling actions in Gaza while rightly and robustly punishing Russia for its brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Indeed, in part because of Israel’s war on Gaza, it is now conceivable that Russia (or its ally North Korea) may decide to secretly assist Iran in developing nuclear weapons, following America’s bombing of that country’s nuclear facilities.

It’s even possible that Russia (or elements in Russia) unofficially knew about Hamas’ 7 October 2023 terrorist attack on Israel before it happened (and may even have quietly encouraged it) – and that Israel and the West simply fell into a trap, partly designed to mire the western world in a war that would distract it from robustly opposing Russia in Ukraine.

Significantly, there was a flurry of top level meetings In Moscow and elsewhere in Russia between Hamas and the Russian government in the year immediately prior to Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel (indeed senior Hamas officials went to Russia three times between September 2022 and September 2023 – and the Russians had already given Hamas a secret licence to make Kalashnikov weapons inside Gaza. Perhaps very significantly, Hamas (with the aim of triggering a regional war against Israel) started to plan its 2023 attack on that country in late September or October 2021, just five months before Russia invaded Ukraine.  

The Gaza war also impacted the crucial US presidential elections in a way that, without doubt, helped Putin by helping the pro-isolationist candidate, namely Trump. Certainly, courtesy of Gaza, the Democrats lost huge numbers of Muslim and Arab-American votes (often in key states) and that may well have helped Harris to lose and Trump to win.

(8) Britain’s role during the ongoing Gaza war may undermine the road to peace

Britain’s help for Israel during the ongoing Gaza war (despite its criticism of Israel’s conduct) is likely to make it much more difficult for the UK to act as an honest broker in any future peace negotiations.

And undermining Britain’s peace-making and international security negotiating potential is not in Britain’s or the world’s best interests.

As the former colonial power in what is now Israel (currently recognised by 85% of the world’s countries) and the State of Palestine (consisting of the West Bank and Gaza – and currently recognised by 75% of countries) has an important role to play persuading Israelis and Palestinians to progress towards peace and a just solution.

(9) Israel’s slaughter in Gaza (and its appalling activities in the West Bank and other areas) are likely to impact British politics very adversely

Indeed, it is conceivable that Israel’s ongoing behaviour (and Labour’s de facto toleration of it) could end up helping the British hard right (in the shape of Nigel Farage etc) to gain political power in the UK at the next UK general election in three or four years time.

That’s because Israel/Palestine is a key issue for a very large percentage of Britain’s 4 million strong Muslim population. Indeed, at last year’s UK general election, around a third of Labour’s Muslim voters abandoned the party in many key parliamentary constituencies. As a result, Labour lost several parliamentary seats – and came close to losing many more.

 Traditionally, Labour has enjoyed support from around 80% of Muslim voters – but the party leadership’s material backing for Israel’s war is massively eroding its Muslim support.  

Unless Keir Starmer deploys very tough measures to signify his total disapproval of Israel’s ongoing activities in Gaza, the West Bank and now also in Syria and elsewhere, Labour is likely to continue to haemorrhage Muslim votes and to suffer electorally as a result.

What’s more, Muslim Labour and former Labour voters are not alone in feeling alienated from Labour over the Israel/Palestine issue. Many other former Labour voters, mainly from the left of the political spectrum, are also electorally abandoning the party over its material support for Israel.

Even if the killing stops in Gaza, the UK Labour government’s failure to take sufficiently strong actions to express its disapproval of Israel’s land seizures and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank will continue to alienate huge numbers of traditional Muslim and non-Muslim Labour voters. At present, the opinion polls suggest that the party enjoys support from just 23% of the British electorate, in contrast to the 35% of the vote at the general election in July last year. It is currently 6 points behind Reform.

 (10) Last but not least, the Gaza war (and the West’s refusal to rein Israel in) is also damaging Israel’s future

Israel continues to massively harm itself through its ill-advised behaviour in Gaza, the West Bank and elsewhere. The country has fallen into the hands of extreme right-wingers whose policies are likely to damage and weaken Israel diplomatically, geopolitically and economically.

Indeed, courtesy of its horrific war against Gaza, it is now one of the most unpopular countries in the world – and is becoming dangerously isolated.

On average, only 29% of the world’s population has a favourable view of Israel, compared with 62% who have a negative one.

Very significantly, in the UK, 61% of the population now have a negative view of Israel (compared to just  30% with a more positive view). In other European countries, Israel is also now viewed negatively – by between 53% and 78% of the population. And in the United States, Israel is now, for the first time ever, disapproved of by a majority of the population (53%). In countries as diverse as Australia and Japan disapproval is also now very high (74% and 79% respectively in those two nations) – and in Latin America, Israel has also become unpopular (with, for instance, 61% of Mexicans viewing Israel negatively and only 24% taking a more positive view).

And worldwide, Muslim countries are now taking a more overwhelmingly negative view, With 93% of Turkey’s population now (courtesy of the Gaza war) having an extremely negative impression of Israel.

The growing global dislike of the country has not yet fully translated into tough governmental economic, diplomatic and political actions against Israel – but many governments may well find it increasingly electorally-difficult to maintain close relations with Israel, if that country’s behaviour and ethos does not very significantly improve.

So far, at least ten countries have cut or reduced their diplomatic relations and some have also reduced trade.

Prior to the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent slaughter of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza, Saudi Arabia was due to consider the possibility of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (as part of the US-brokered so-called Abraham Accords) – but Israel’s conduct in Gaza has now made it politically impossible for Saudi Arabia and others to take that step.

From an international geopolitical perspective, Saudi Arabia’s renewed Gaza-war-induced reluctance to normalise relations with Israel, is clearly bad news from a British/western perspective – because it weakens the world’s ability to exert diplomatic and other pressure on Iran, a country which Britain, the USA and others see as a major threat.

So what should the British and other Western governments do?

The ten points above are clearly arguments as to why Israel’s foolish actions are bad news from a British and western perspective.

They are particularly important arguments, given that the British government has so far done relatively little to exert really serious pressure on Israel (and to persuade other countries to do likewise).

So far, the UK has threatened to recognise the State of Palestine (as announced yesterday), has stopped just a few UK-made military exports going to Israel – but continues to allow most of them, including crucial parts for Israeli military aircraft.

The British government has also failed to sanction the vast majority of people involved in war crimes etc in Gaza (only a handful have been sanctioned – but most potential Israeli war criminals are free to travel to Britain any time they wish!)

If the UK government now chooses to, it could do much much more to try to change Israel’s behaviour – and the arguments above describe in detail why that is so crucial.

Without Britain and other countries imposing really tough measures (like the ones listed near the beginning of this article), Israel is likely to largely ignore world opinion and continue along its current appalling trajectory. So, in order to protect Britain’s vital national interests, Keir Starmer needs to urgently bring much more serious pressure to bear on the Israeli government. Simply threatening to recognise Palestine is unlikely to work on its own.

As hundreds of thousands of Palestinians face death, injury, starvation and ethnic cleansing, it is high time that western governments took effective action to uphold international law and to stop the slide towards international chaos. As part of that crucial process, they must stop the Israeli tail wagging the western dog. The West must take serious action to stop Israel harming British and western interests and stop it acting in ways that, long term, can only strengthen anti-democratic and repressive governments worldwide.

David Keys works as a journalist, based in London, writing mainly for The Independent but also contributing to a number of other media outlets. Read another of his Gaza analyses here.

Please remember to support Skwawkbox if you can, to help ensure it can keep running. The site is provided free of charge but depends on the support of its readers to be viable. If you’d like to help it keep revealing the news as it is and not what the Establishment wants you to hear – and can afford to without hardship – please click here to arrange a one-off or modest monthly donation via PayPal or here to set up a monthly donation via GoCardless (Skwawkbox will contact you to confirm the GoCardless amount as it has to be entered by us). Alternatively, if you prefer to make a one-off or recurring donation by simple card payment, please use the form below:

Thanks for your solidarity so Skwawkbox can keep doing its job of inconveniencing the right and helping to build the left!

If you wish to republish this post for non-commercial use, you are welcome to do so, but please include the donor information above – see here for more.