Catalan film-maker Jordi Oriola Folch analyses the run-up to Catalonia’s elections next week
On 12 May next week, elections will be held to choose the government of Catalonia. Four years ago, Catalan pro-independence parties won with 52% of the votes and 55% of the seats. A Catalan pro-independence government of ERC and JUNTS was formed with the support of the CUP. But different strategies in the face of constant Spanish judicial repression meant that ERC was left alone in the government.
In these Catalan elections, the situation is totally different, because the result of the last Spanish elections has forced the ruling PSOE to make a pact with JUNTS so that its 7 votes would contribute to the investiture of President Pedro Sánchez. This has forced him to accept an amnesty law with which, soon, all those persecuted by the “lawfare” (judicial warfare using fraudulently the law) of the Spanish justice system will be free of any accusation. Among them, the Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, who in 2017 organised the referendum on self-determination, was illegally deposed by the Spanish government and had to go into exile in Belgium to avoid being unjustly imprisoned.
At the beginning of this election campaign, the PSC (the Catalan PSOE) was leading the polls because the majority of the non-independence vote is concentrated in this party. A little further behind were the two big pro-independence parties, ERC and JUNTS. But then Puigdemont announced that he was standing as a candidate and that he would return triumphantly to Spain for the investiture with the protection of the amnesty he has managed to wrest from Spain. Then voting intentions began to shift towards JUNTS and closer and closer to the PSC.
The thing is that Puigdemont is the number one enemy of Spanish nationalism and arouses great fear in Spain, because he represents insubordination to the state and has not been able to be subdued. This is why, at the start of the election campaign, Pedro Sánchez surprised everyone with a reckless and disturbing juggling act. Without warning, he published a letter on social media announcing that he was very upset with the extreme right because his wife was accused of corruption. And he announced that he was giving himself five days to reflect on whether he should leave the presidency. Sánchez had always denied the claims of the pro-independence movement that they had been victims of “lawfare”, with the mantra that Spain is a state governed by the rule of law. But now he has acknowledged that, in Spain, judicial dirty war is being practised.
The country was left on the edge of the precipice, waiting for the president’s decision. After five days he affirmed that he would continue and, taking advantage of the state of shock, tried to call on his followers to vote in the Catalan elections with the justification of demonstrating to the extreme right that Pedro Sánchez has the support of the people. With this manipulative strategy, Sánchez managed to increase the PSC’s voting intentions and stay ahead of Puigdemont.
But as the elections approach, it seems that this trend of PSC growth has stalled and, on the other hand, the pro-independence electorate is concentrating its vote on Puigdemont. We shall see who ends up winning… In any case, even if Puigdemont does not come out on top, it is possible that he will be the only one to obtain a majority to be invested as president of Catalonia. In this case: how will Spain react to a person it has persecuted so viscerally? Will it respect the will expressed at the ballot box or will it give free rein to its repressive nationalism?
Jordi Oriola Folch is a physicist, documentary filmmaker and teacher who lives in Barcelona and fights for the independence of Catalonia.
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Excellent article on what is – for outsiders – a very confusing situation.
Thank you.
It would be great if for once Skwawbox was to research the topic its writing about it and to seek the opinion of historians in contemporary Spanish history, rather than parroting Junts propaganda.
Under the present Spanish Constitution of 1978 any referendum pro-independence is illegal and act of rebellion against Spain.
Therefore, no Lawfare simply following the Spanish Constitution that in order to be amended needs 2/3 of the vote in Parliament. Simply put impossible to amend on this point as the majority of Spaniards left and right are in favour of defending the unity of Spain.
Back in 1978 the Catalan political party predecessor of Junts (keep changing names) enthusiastically supported this constitution, rather than calling for the democratically approved Constitution of 1932 to be put to the vote.
Ezquerra, PNV and Batasuna didn´t support a vote in favour of the 1978 Constitution. The reason for Ezquerra (left Catalan Nationalist Party) and PNV and Batasuna (Basque Nationalists Parties) didn´t support the present Constitution was that it didn´t allow the democratic separation of Catalunya or the Basque Country from Spain, the 1932 Constitution did.
Puigdemont and friends were happy supporting the 1978 Constitution them. Later on in the late 70´s and early 80´s laws governing the autonomy of different Spanish´s regions were put forward. The same deal that was offered to Navarre and the Basque Country was offered to Catalunya.
Once again Ezquerra (Catalan Nationalist Party) wanted to accept the deal but Convergencia (now Junts) reject it. Under the deal both Navarre and the Basque Country took full control of collecting and keeping the taxes collected in their territories but relinquished financial help from the Spanish Central State. However, Convergencia wanted to financially stay part of the Spanish State to get financial support from it. Thus, reject it the deal.
Convergencia was caught with its hands on the till with German Gorda been knows as Mr 3%. The two reasons the Referendum was call it was to try to cover up for the corruption (change of the name) and for Catalunya to escape the financial obligations that undertook towards the Spanish State in terms of financing.
The left nearly lost the last General Elections because of Junts, the right wing in Spain using the Spanish Constitution to attack Sanchez and the left for his conciliatory approach towards Junts. Unfortunately, the left needed the 7 votes of Junts to get into government post July 2023.
In my opinion Junts blackmailed the Spanish left. While Esquerra offered its 7 votes in a constructive manner, Junts didn´t.
As a Spaniard and a Socialist, I cannot understand what are you defending Junts, a right wing nationalist party, that engaged in corruption. I have a lot of respect for Esquerra but none from Junts. As a political Party Esquerra has been consistent in its political positions while Junts goes where the money goes.
Really interesting to read your response to this blog post Maria as you clearly understand what sounds like a complicated situation. As is often the case in politics, the full story involves knowing the history too.
Maria, Skwawkie’s thought-provoking article is by Jordi Oriola Folch, a guest writer. It’s helping me better grasp the issues facing voters next week. Like George Peel said above, Spain’s Catalan questions can be very confusing to outsiders. What do you expect to happen next week?
Qwertboi, I expect no political party will win an outright majority. Hence, two possible scenarios:
1- a coalition government between the PSE and ERC (Esquerra Republicana per Catalunya) with the support of Comuns Sumar if needed.
2-a coalition government between Junts and ERC and possibly the support of CUP if needed
ERC is going to be the king maker as it would have to chose either to enter in government with the PSE or with Junts. But in every scenario Esquerra would be in government.
A possible third scenario would be PSE and Junts in a coalition government. However, it would be a mistake for the PSE to enter into government with Junts. The PSOE would pay a very heavy price in the rest of Spain if entering into a government fronted by Junts.
Ezquerra and Comuns Sumar have a lot in common in the sense that both Parties are to the left of the PSE and share similar social policies in housing, foreign policy for example.
While Junts, ERC and Cup are Catalan nationalist parties. But, while ERC is a Catalan nationalist party both Junts and Cup are neoliberals. Hence, a difficult position for ERC
Sorry, what I mean is that ERC although a Catalan nationalist Party is also socialist, While Junts and .CUP are neoliberals.
Maria, thank you for your thoughts. They emphasise overlooked perils of ‘proportional representation’. PR often delivers nothing of the sort. Just think of how Nick Clegg shafted students re fees!!!
PR -> closed door backroom SECRET dodgy deals ignore the hopes of ever trusting (gullible) “leaders” of “The Many”.
Worse yet, those with the best intentions i.e. “The Left”, suffer from an almost universal CHRONIC disease of ALWAYS giving ground / ALWAYS taking hostages / ALWAYS compromising with zero need / and ALWAYS attempting to appease even the most obvious ethically degenerate who say repeatedly and openly that they;
“…wake up EVERYDAY thinking of NEW ways to UNDERMINE…” anyone with opposite values, … ANYONE, no matter how malleable and willing to “do WHATEVER they ask”, and with the closest of allies willing to beg declared enemies to: 1- “write a letter, with ANYTHING they wish … i.e. apologies and retractions of what deserved neither apologies nor retractions, and: 2- CONFIDENT that “HE WILL SIGN IT”. IT being such a letter.
No wonder, still, STILL many, especially at the TOP of “The Left” expect Sir Keith & Co. won’t be as they’ve been OPENLY shouting and DEMONSTRATING daily. Sir Keith & Co. are OPENLY duplicitous, heartlessly dishonest and cruel, ethically debauched, WICKED in the extreme, determined to continue feeding the military industrial complex no matter how many hundreds of thousand children are blown to smithereens, eager to facilitate the 1% accumulating even more of the worlds wealth at OUR expense, the 99%.
🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘🆘
p.s. the “CHRONIC disease of ALWAYS giving ground”, is tragically evident in the Green Party now.
Despite having seen and seeing the SHARPEST fruits of FAILURE of nonstop, craven pathetic appeasements 2015 – 2019 delivered us, still Still STILL, as if they were soundly asleep from 2015 to-date, take their timorous step to appeasements.
Never mind the gross failure they must have at least heard of, that appeasements only emboldened the gushing sewers of ever vexatious and unsubstantiated claims, and irresponsible weaponisation of the vilest lies…
still no one even thinks that “attacks” gift us opportunities to rebut lies and set out with clarity: FACTS…TRUTHS… and DEBUNK MYTHS and DOWNRIGHT lies‼️‼️‼️
Off-topic (sorry folks)
It appears the septic tanks have absolved both themselves and israel of breaking any international law about the murder of Palestinian men, women & children, using US manufactured weapons.
…How very gary glitter of them
(No link as it was just breaking at the very end of CH4 news)
CORRECTION:
Biden admin has cleared Israel of violating international AND US law over their murder of Palestinians (with US made weapons)
…Which is still gary glitter of them
Linky
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-report-critical-israels-war-gaza-no-violations-arms-law/story?id=110107413
And, quelle surprise….Here’s how the beeb are reporting it..
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68984999
The US government says Israel may have breached humanitarian law in Gaza using American weapons.
In a long-awaited report, the state department says it is “reasonable to assess” that US-supplied arms were used in ways “inconsistent” with Israel’s obligations.
But it says Israel has had to confront an “extraordinary military challenge” fighting Hamas in Gaza.
The report, ordered by the White House, was submitted to Congress on Friday.
The document says that the US government doesn’t have “complete information” to verify its assessment.
However it said that given Israel’s significant reliance on US-made weapons “it is reasonable to assess” that they had been used since October 7 “in instances inconsistent with its IHL obligations or with established best practices for mitigating civilian harm”.
It also finds that, despite Israel not fully co-operating with US efforts to get humanitarian aid into Gaza in the initial months after the conflict began, it does not currently assess that Israel is prohibiting or restricting the transport of aid supplies.
They’ve absolved themselves and the Israeli’s ffs. No more of this:
‘Not consistent’ and Not prohibitive/restrictive bollocks.
Just GTF and tell it EXACTLY how it is
When you cannot rely on the Western Corporate Media to provide unbiased objective information on one subject – in this case the mass murder of civilians, men, women, and children, by a fascist based State aided and abetted by the very people clearing themselves of any wrongdoing – there is every reason to treat any information from these sources as nothing more than crude propaganda designed to push a particular narrative as far away from reality and the truth as its possible to get..
Has the penny dropped yet, Billy?