May’s disastrous speech helps kill Tory polling bounce

As the SKWAWKBOX published last week, the Tories enjoyed the usual post-conference ‘bounce’ in their polling that parties generally see as long as the conference has not been an absolute disaster – but much of the data for that polling was gathered before Theresa May’s disastrous speech to close the conference.

Before the speech, the conference itself was notable primarily for its drabness – and its emptiness, with huge numbers of empty seats even for the keynote speeches:

tory-17-empty1

Comedy alter-ego Jonathan Pie‘s piece to camera outside the conference hall also reflected the graveyard-like atmosphere of the event – which was in stark contrast to the vibrant scenes inside and outside Labour’s conference in Brighton the week before:

But all that won’t – per se – affect the expected ‘bounce’ – the mere increased exposure will normally see to that, albeit temporarily.

However, the first YouGov poll published on data taken entirely after Theresa May’s train-wreck speech shows that the bounce has evaporated:

 

yg vi 1011.png

YouGov’s tweet does not show the movement, but the linked article shows that the Tories’ share has fallen compared to a week ago:

yg 39

The impact of Tory in-fighting – which has intensified over the last couple of days but had already resurfaced by the time the polling data was collected – will certainly not be helping the Tory polling performance. But few objective observers would doubt that what was very likely the worst leader’s conference speech in living memory has played a huge role in killing the Conservatives’ polling bounce so quickly.

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8 responses to “May’s disastrous speech helps kill Tory polling bounce

  1. I take the view that poll samples are often too small to be taken as gospel but that doesn’t really matter.

    What matters is that the largely right wing media has built up the importance of polls so much that people are very influenced by them and they do now affect how people vote.

    What we are starting to witness is the Tories and their surrogates in the media being hoist on their own petard.

    And what a truly splendid sight it is!

    Liked by 3 people

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  4. Johnathan Pie, how politics should be, “THE TRUTH AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH”!
    YOU NEED A SLEDGEHAMMER TO POP THE TORY BUBBLE!
    A FEW HOME TRUTHS WOULDN’T GO AMISS AS LONG AS IT’S THE TRUTH!

    Like

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