Knives sharpened as YouGov shows Tories losing majority #GE17

As Sam Coates of the Times reports this evening, YouGov’s latest suggests that Theresa May’s campaign has been so catastrophic that the Tories are on track to lose their Parliamentary majority.

Last weekend’s polling showed the Tories with a tiny, 2-seat majority – but all the momentum was with Labour and even senior Tories were admitting that Corbyn’s surge had the Conservatives in a panic.

Tonight’s prediction suggests they were right:

yougov 300517.jpg

John Curtice’s observations after the local elections suggested that Tory polling may be inflated by as much as 10%, so the real picture may be even worse for nasty party – and likely to slide even further over the final nine days of campaigning.

The SKWAWKBOX hears that knives are already being sharpened at CCHQ and alliances are already under discussion among senior Tories jockeying for position for a tilt at the party leadership as soon as results are known on 9 June. Theresa May gambled everything on her arrogant expectation of a larger majority by calling the snap election and there will be no Tory kindness if/when that expectation is shown to be as foolish as it’s starting to appear.

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  1. Sorry to depress people but now that they’ve received clearance by the CPS to do what the hell they want and fill their boots, don’t be surprised if they get a 100 seat majority on the back of massive election expenses fiddling and postal vote fraud.

    1. Not sure that the public would allow that to happen this time. There is too much at stake for too many people. I think the only reason that decision has not been met with more anger is due to the election, and people having the opportunity to vote them out.

      The CPS decision may, actually, encourage a high turnout, because people would want to make sure there is as little opportunity for fraud and cheating as possible.

      1. Sadly, the people with the power to clamp down on fraud (Returning Officers) are being paid up to £27,000 per election and that is a big gig to lose if you don’t play the game and keep shtum. Reputation is all and no Council CEO wants fraud on their patch. As for the Electoral Commission, they changed their voting count model just before the 2015 election which some believe made it easier for elections to be rigged, particularly in the area of postal voting, which Judge Mawrey (an election specialist who sat for the Lutfur Rhaman / Tower Hamlets case) described as being subject to fraud “on an industrial scale”.

      2. Okay, taking all that into account, you would still think the local population would know when election fraud is being committed, and would come together to protest their disenfranchisement. The minority authority figures cannot ignore and refuse to enact the will of the people forever, it simply cannot and does not happen. I really do think the election fraud will come back to haunt the Tories – the people have not been fooled, and have not, and will not forget. Remember, there was a huge amount of interest in the election fraud cases amongst the public, which suggests this issue is not going to go away anytime soon, or anytime at all.

      3. Okay, thanks Nicola. Myself and two friends have been forensically investigating electoral fraud occurring in May 2015 and we are having immense difficulty notifying the relevant authorities. There is practically no will or desire to act. #VotegateUK is our hashtag. Thanks.

  2. Given that there will be scores of Labour members and supporters out on election day doorknocking and phoning Labour voters reminding them to put their vote in, and polling data is skewed to reflect the “shy Tory” effect, Labour might just pull off the biggest political upset since Clement Attlee won in 1945.

    I think that going out to help Labour on polling day is the single most important thing anybody can do to help Labour win. If you’re available, even for a couple of hours, please sign Momentum’s “election day pledge”. They will be coordinating campaigners to target the constituencies that will hurt the Tories most.

    Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn. It even has a nice ring to it. Let’s make it happen!

  3. Just a word of caution, the YouGov polls were the most inaccurate in both the 2015 General Election, and the EU Referendum. Opinium were the nearest to those results.

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