Analysis Exclusive

Exclusive: Tories sneaking recent additional C19 cases into figures – and not saying when they happened

Footnotes add cases to total “due to historic revisions” – but daily figures not changed, giving government control over how it drips out figures

An extract from the government’s daily case figure tables, which show no changes after ‘revision’

The Department of Health added 374 additional coronavirus cases to its coronavirus figures on Friday, claiming they were ‘due to historic revisions’ – but none of the previous daily figures were amended. The additional cases were simply added to the running total, giving the people of the UK no idea when they happened. The case numbers in any case represent only a fraction of the estimated real number of new infections.

Analysis of the daily spreadsheets shows that the daily figures before the additional cases and the daily figures after they were added are unchanged, as a statistician confirmed to the SKWAWKBOX:

A comparison of the number of new cases for Friday against the previous day’s shows no difference. The additional 374 cases have just been added to the cumulative total.

But the analysis also showed that the cases have all happened with the last two weeks at the longest:

I compared the daily testing time series by pillar on 14 June and the figures are exactly the same for number of positive cases from pillar 1 and 2.

So that means these ‘historical’ 374 new cases must be from 14 June onwards – assuming they are genuinely missed data. But there’s nothing to indicate that’s the case apart from the government’s claim that they are.

It’s equally possible they thought announcing a 1380 figure for a single day would lead to a lot of questions, so they re-apportioned the cases – and in fact there are indications this is the case.

This would mean yesterday’s new cases were 1380 and not 1006, or else why not update the figures to show where these 374 came from historically?

But if the ‘historical’ claim is true and the 374 are from the last 13 days, that’s bad in itself. Below are the time series for 14 June and 26 June. The column you are looking at is ‘i’.

The last figure in each block of 5 up to 27 March is the total hospital positive cases P1. After that the last 2 figures in each block of 7 are P1 ‘hospital’ and P2 ‘wider population’. These added together give the total number of new cases that appear in the DHSC reports posted daily.

Adding additional cases in this way, with no indication of where or when they occurred, gives the government even more control over how the consequences of its horrific handling of the coronavirus are reported – and ample opportunity to disguise or at least delay the signs of a second wave.

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12 comments

  1. The Tories are telling porkies? I don’t believe it. They’ve never sank so low before.

  2. There’s a set of stats that brain & dicky certainly won’t be referring to.

  3. Thing is – *any* Covid-19 data is so inaccurate to be useless – for all the reasons that only the terminally slow and ignorant don’t get.

    So forget it – look at reasonably reliable metrics – of which ‘all cause’ mortality is the best. Forget all the other fiction.

    Meanwhile, bear in mind that unquestiningly arse-licking the establishment > MSM agenda – such as is the habit here – merely cedes ground to the totalitarian anti-citizen narrative.

    If you can’t work out the basics of the current scene, you really shouldn’t play at political analysis.

  4. https://zachbushmd.com/video/the-highwire/

    fao RH
    We may have had differences of opinion in the past & probably still do, but I have relatives in USA who recently advocated that I watch this interview. It lasts 1 hour & 22 minutes, but it challenges many of my assumptions ref. Covid 19 & its relationship with micro-biology.

    Enjoy

    1. Thank you, Steve for a considered response and a *proper* alternative take.

      If I seem short-tempered and dismissive at times, it is simply in response to the glib acceptance of a dictated narrative that by-passes thought. I have always based my views on references to evidence, and have no time for responses that are knee-jerk rehearsals of received opinion rather than considered argument.

      This isn’t academic : lack of thought is what allows manipulation of language and ideas, and my background is not servile acceptance of anybody’s version of truth – even if they claim ‘left’ credentials. It’s a belief that radicalism is rooted in thought, dissent and freedom – not subservient acquiescence. I’m a Blairite – the Eric one, who gave short shrift to hand-me-down politics and the abuse of language.

      Beyond the actual issues around the Corona PANICdemic, it has been the uniform subservience to a narrative and the willingness to bow down that has concerned me – not alternative analysis and views.

      Let’s face it – had this been 1941, the Wehrmacht would have been welcomed with open arms for fear of the alternative, with domestic ‘spies’ reporting non-compliance to the Fuhrer’s diktat. Fuck the Dunkirk spirit.

      So – again – thanks for coming back with an alternative; there are many such – but it seems the plebs can’t be trusted with such subversion!

      1. fao RH

        thank you for the courtesy of a civil reply, most appreciated. I spent many years working as a lecturer & I have always enjoyed playing ‘devil’s advocate’ & argue against what I initially believed; often with interesting results. It has led me to believe that the function of education in a healthy democracy is to produce anarchists, young people who will constantly question everything, but most importantly think for themselves & never be afraid to change their mind based on available evidence. I still tend to question most dominant ideologies.

        The video with DR. Zach Bush lasts for 1 hour 22 minutes, but begs a multitude of questions about Covid 19..

  5. Steve – Just as an addendum. My constant concern about Covid-19 and the inaccuracies surrounding it – comes from the surrounding lack of awareness of the largely unspoken agendas that ride on the back of it. This isn’t about conspiracy theories – it’s about massive invasions into civil liberties whilst the news is full of rattle about an essentially mild virus.

    The following is from an article by David Hencke on his blog :

    “Now in my opinion because of the Covid-19 crisis the government is using this to introduce major changes to our unwritten constitution to bypass Parliament. I don’t blame my lobby colleagues for missing this – the 24/7 news agenda hardly gives them time to study a detailed House of Lords report.”

    … which gives an overview of the massive expansion of ‘Henry VIII’ powers giving the executive massive control over legislation without proper scrutiny. See :

    https://davidhencke.com/2020/06/21/welcome-to-your-new-rulers-uk-commissioners-gove-johnson-and-cummings/

    I totally agree with you about the need for a critical frame of mind, and in this period, following the capture of the MSM, such a frame has been noted by its general absence. That’s why I get wound up by false reporting and point-missing, no matter what its source.

    1. Your metric is nonsense, because the term ‘excess deaths’ is meaningless.

      See the CEBM analysis of the term and the wild differences made when more accurate calculations are employed.

      https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/thoughts-on-estimating-excess-mortality-from-covid-19/

      Of course – the wild exaggerations of duff figures are *exactly* what the MSM/Government narrative depends on.

      Essentially the term simply describes the error component of a model.

      As I’ve shown before, a metric that does make sense is comparison with the absolute number of deaths over an extended period – duly standardised against population size. In those terms, the recent infection season ranks *eighth* over a period of 27 years, lying at approximately the 3rd quartile of all seaasons.

      Beyond that, even the worrying spike of mortality for the very old disappears if the last season is combined with the previous, which was very mild, and led to a much higher relative number of vulnerable people surviving an extra year, but dying in the current one.

      The term ‘mild’ is appropriate because the measurable level mortality is such for the majority of the healthy population under 65. A massive proportion of those dying are both old and suffering from other illnesses that shorten life through susceptibility to all sorts of infection. The other side of the equation is the total lack of risk to those under 20.

      All this is verifiable and measured within a context and provides no basis from the uncontrolled fear and panic that we have seen – such wild emotions being dependent on distorted figures and meaningless data.

  6. WordPress is now telling me my log in has expired at the same time as telling me I’m commenting using my WP account.
    Then it lost/deleted my comment while it said “posting comment.”
    Fuck this shit.

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